385
FXUS64 KAMA 101817
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
117 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Elevated to near-Critical Fire Weather conditions across the
  Panhandles through Thursday.

- Widespread triple-digit high temperatures expected throughout the
  work week.

- Monitoring a potential shift in the pattern that could bring storm
  chances to the northwestern Panhandles Friday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Over the short term, upper-level high pressure continues to reside
over the Panhandles. Lee-side troughing will tighten surface
pressure gradients, allowing for sustained winds around 20 mph
across the Panhandles. Breezy conditions, along with dry conditions
intruding from the west, will allow for elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions to return. These conditions are dependent
upon fuels as well, which due to the recent heat wave and lack of
precipitation in many areas across the Panhandles, are estimated to
be around the 80th-90th percentile. These elevated fire conditions
will remain the case into tomorrow as well, with the same upper-
level pattern creating lee-side troughing and breezy conditions
across the Panhandles.

Other than elevated fire weather conditions, the story largely
remains the same. High temperatures in the triple digits, with low
(less than 10%) chance of precipitation in the far northwestern
Panhandles for today and Tuesday. With almost no upper-level
support, terrain induced thunderstorms are possible, but with around
40 degree dewpoint depressions at the surface and the best H700
ThetaE displaced SE from the northwestern Panhandles, thunderstorms
surviving the trip from higher elevation in New Mexico seems
unlikely.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level high remains in place over
the Panhandles, allowing hot and dry conditions to prevail. Thursday
we begin to see models trend toward the eastern propagation of
the upper-level high pressure, placing the CWA on the western
extent of the ridge. Perturbations in the upper-level flow could
lead to daily storm chances across the northwestern combined
Panhandles. The failure mode of this scenario lies in the
uncertainty of where this upper-level high will end up. There are
significant long-range model discrepancies in how far east the
high pressure center will propagate, and if it does not push far
enough east, the best chances of precipitation will likely be
displaced west of the Panhandles. Confidence will increase
throughout the week with persistence in model runs and as more
models see the event window, but until then, confidence remains
low.

The high pressure center is currently progged to retrograde back
west, placing the Panhandles under the upper-level high again as
we go into next week. This will support the return of widespread
triple-digit high temperatures and decreased PoP chances if
conditions stay consistent throughout the week.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will remain predominantly out of the S, reaching around 15-20 kts
sustained with gusts close to 30 kts in some areas (primarily KGUY
and KDHT). Sustained winds will come down to around 10 kts
overnight, before increasing again through Tuesday morning.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23