767
FXUS64 KAMA 221125
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Summer heat wave continues will highs near or above 100 through
   at least early next week with few exceptions.

 - Low chance (10-20%) for isolated to widely scattered afternoon
   & evening storms this weekend, with slightly higher chances
   each evening next week.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production
each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This
will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure
continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to
another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last
couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may
be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to
an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early
signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing
near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado
Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve
overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how
warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have
additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high
resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run
of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area
from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms
in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are
hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our
northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high
and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side.

Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and
this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the
outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could
stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to
the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs
agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept
the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged
temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again,
the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming
out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today
should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear
environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the
east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft).
Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in
our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a
low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that
manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn`t likely based
on weak wind profile).

Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall
synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E
plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to
scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot
on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It
does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west,
so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas
will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central
zones.

Ward

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production
each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This
will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure
continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to
another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last
couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may
be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to
an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early
signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing
near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado
Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve
overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how
warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have
additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high
resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run
of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area
from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms
in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are
hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our
northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high
and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side.

Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and
this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the
outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could
stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to
the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs
agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept
the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged
temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again,
the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming
out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today
should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear
environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the
east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft).
Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in
our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a
low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that
manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn`t likely based
on weak wind profile).

Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall
synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E
plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to
scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot
on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It
does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west,
so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas
will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central
zones.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that our
high pressure will start shifting west slightly Monday into
Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into
the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for
evening and overnight storms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two next week
partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also just in
response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure
center. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze
back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we
will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree
heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the
demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble
members are suggesting.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Another boundary is expected to stall in the Southern Texas
Panhandles this afternoon with potential to severe as a good
lifting mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Currently KAMA is
the only terminal that CAMS have seen any potential for impacts.
However, confidence in impacts to said terminal has be low, given
the trend of a more southerly placement of the boundary alongside
the coverage being more isolated in nature. Still, this confidence
can quickly change should the boundary move further north with
damaging outflow wind gusts becoming the primary threat.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold through the current
package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ008>010-013>015-018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11