Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
740 FXUS64 KAMA 011141 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 641 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 -Residual rain chances from remnants of tropical system favors northern Panhandles Thursday and Friday. -Cold front Friday brings some chilly temperatures by Friday night for the northern Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 After receiving several inches of rain over the past week for most of the Panhandles from two distinct systems, we will slowly return to mostly dry conditions coming up, especially by this weekend. The remnants of the eastern Pacific tropical system, roughly centered over northeast New Mexico, continues to slowly move east-northeast across the northern Panhandles and SW Kansas throughout the day on Thursday. As it does so, wrap around moisture and lift from the low itself could produce additional rain chances, favoring the northern Panhandles. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates may still produce some localized flooding at times with activity through Friday morning. As the main H500 low becomes an open trough, as seen by the latest hi-res guidance, some rain chances may extend south to the I-40 corridor as the main system finally exits the region. Mostly cloudy skies expected through moist of the short term forecast period, with more breaks in the clouds overall the further south in the TX Panhandle you are. Overall, with rain and clouds, temperatures continue to be near to below average. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 60s in the NW combined Panhandles to lower 80s in the SE TX Panhandle. High temperatures on Friday will be a bit cooler with values ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s across the Panhandles due to a cold front moving south into the region. By Friday night, low temperatures may drop as low as the lower 40s in several locations in the northern Panhandles in the wake of the cold front. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 With the main H300 jet axis across the northern CONUS steering disturbances, a H500 high pressure system should build and extend into the southern High Plains from the Four Corners region this weekend into early next week. This should keep the Panhandles mostly dry. Temperatures throughout the long term forecasts period will slowly warm up from slightly below average this weekend to slightly above average by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 As of early this morning, present radar was seeing showers wrap around the incoming low pressure system. These showers, while staying mostly north and west this morning, may reach close enough to KDHT to prompt a vicinity mention. However as we aprroach the late afternoon and early evening, chances of showers having an impact to all terminal will be on the rise thanks to an approaching cold front. At this time most impacts will be reduce visibility due to heavy rainfall. However, embedded thunderstorms may also be present resulting in occasional lightning strikes at or near the terminals. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...11