Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
071 FXUS64 KAMA 051805 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 105 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Areas of light showers will continue through this afternoon, with low chances for a thunderstorm or two south of I-40. - Shower and thunderstorm potential increases Saturday night into Sunday, favoring the western to central Panhandles. - Precipitation chances decrease through next week with temperatures in the 80s to low 90s returning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Our anticipated cold front has made its way through the Panhandles, helping to generate some breezy winds and light rain showers. Going through the rest of this afternoon-evening, winds will die down and better light shower potential will exist across the northern Panhandles, with 20-30% chances for a storm or two to develop south of I-40 where areas were able to heat up a little more ahead of the front. If storms do form, they will have potential to produce brief gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain (20-40% chance for >0.50"). Additional light rain/sprinkles may last into the evening, but dry air is expected to push in and end precipitation from north to south through the overnight hours. Lighter winds and partially clearing skies across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle will promote temperatures cooling just below 50 degrees by Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Saturday is shaping up to be another taste of fall with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s. Precipitation chances are less than 10% until the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday, when a lead shortwave within the flow is expected to traverse over the region (20% POPs across the southwest Panhandle before 7 AM). Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Timing of a potentially more potent perturbation on Sunday could spell the difference between light showers vs thunderstorm development during the afternoon. If this feature arrives hot on the heels of the morning disturbance, then the environment may remain capped/overworked by morning activity, making additional precipitation hard to come by. However, if the main vort max is delayed till later in the afternoon and the atmosphere is able to destabilize, thunderstorms could develop near the TX-NM state line where sfc convergence may provide enough lift to get things going. Much uncertainty exists surrounding this potential, but models currently lean towards an earlier timing of the system, focusing highest shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday morning across the southern to central TX Panhandle (30-40% POPs). Lower 20-30% probabilities remain for the evening-overnight hours since the slower system progression is still on the table. Monday`s forecast scenario is very similar to Sunday`s, likely hinging on timing of disturbances and influence of overnight-morning convection, but would favor the central to eastern Panhandles where better lift and moisture should exist. Tuesday onward, model disagreement increases, but the overall synoptic signal points towards ridging aloft being amplified over the region as troughing increases over the Pacific Northwest and SE CONUS. Such a pattern would promote a warming trend through the rest of the work week, with highs in the 80s to low 90s each day. Investigation of ensemble members shows low rain chances could still exist during this time frame, but the overall upper level pattern doesn`t appear favorable again until later next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Low cloud decks over the forecast area have created MVFR to IFR ceilings at all sites. Light showers are likely to linger through the evening hours, with low chances for thunderstorms near/south of KAMA. Winds will turn around the dial at 5-10 kts overnight through the end of the period, with brief periods of LIFR ceilings not out of the question. Cloud decks should begin to lift towards the end of the 18z period. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38