161
FXUS64 KAMA 241721 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The main headline through the short term (and the rest of the
week) will be the hot temperatures. Temperatures will continue to
slowly increase both today and tomorrow, with Tuesday featuring
widespread highs at or just above the century mark. Additionally,
some showers or storms may develop late on Tuesday across the
Panhandles, providing some relief from the hot temperatures.

A few isolated rain showers remain across the central/southern
Texas Panhandle early this morning. The showers will continue to
dissipate through the morning hours. With cloud cover over the
region this morning, temperatures will likely bottom out in the
70s for most areas across the Panhandles. High pressure will
continue to remain across much of the southern CONUS today with
the center of the H500 high slowly drifting off to the west. Weak
west to northwest flow should prevail across the Southern High
Plains today which will aid in developing a weak leeside low
across eastern Colorado by mid day. The surface pressure gradient
will tighten across the region as a result and breezy south winds
are forecast for this afternoon, which will provide a little
relief from the hot temperatures. Highs today will be in the upper
90s to just over the triple digit mark. Some locations may get
close or briefly get up to 105 degrees, but confidence is not high
enough to issue any Heat Advisories for any locations for today. A
weak disturbance may be able to kick off some showers and storms
across the higher terrain to the west late this afternoon into the
evening. Model guidance does not agree with how far east and
southeast the storms may get tonight, so have kept in the non
mentionable NBM PoPs for now.

Center of high pressure should remain across New Mexico on Tuesday
and is forecast to become slightly stronger, this will turn flow
aloft to out of the northwest to north during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will start a couple of
degrees warmer than they will this morning and combined with
stronger WAA at the lower levels, temperatures should easily rise
to just over 100 degrees for most of the Panhandles. Additionally,
with dew points remaining on the higher end, this is not expected
to be our typical dry heat the region usually sees. Some
locations, in particular across the eastern Panhandles, are
forecast to have heat index values a few degrees above the air
temperature which may cause heat related issues on Tuesday
afternoon. With confidence continuing to increase in potential
heat related issues, have issued a Heat Advisory for the eastern
Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon. The advisory may need to be
expanded further west should confidence increase in the higher
temperatures or higher dew points than currently expected. Relief
from the heat may come late in the day as plenty of moisture still
looks to remain over the High Plains and a weak disturbance should
generate some scattered showers and storms by the evening hours on
Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given weak shear
and CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. However, with PWAT values still
around 1 to 1.25 inches, moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible. Storms will also be slow movers as the steering flow
aloft is very weak so some isolated areas of flash flooding will
be possible. Temperatures Tuesday night should be a bit cooler and
some locations may even drop into the mid 60s by early Wednesday
morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Once again little change was made to the long term periods compared
to what was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago.
The main message continues to be the heat and triple digit high
temperatures Wednesday through Friday. The upper level ridge of
high pressure will be the overall dominant feature in our weather
pattern from Wednesday through Sunday. A weak cold front may move
across the region on Saturday and could temporarily bring slightly
cooler temperatures for this weekend. Otherwise, given the strength
of this ridge, high temperatures across many locations will likely
approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Heat Index
values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on
Wednesday and Friday across parts of the area, and additional Heat
Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as well.
Precipitation chances Wednesday through Sunday will strongly
depend on the strength of the upper level high pressure as well as
how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Nearly all medium
range models continue to indicate periodic meandering of the ridge
axis during the extended periods. The latest NBM pops and temperatures
remain plausible based on the forecast synoptic pattern and were
accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Southerly winds at 13 to 17 knots with higher gusts will decrease
to the 10 to 15 knot range this evening. Winds will then pick up
again at the AMA TAF site to near 20 knots by mid morning.
Thunderstorms may try to make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites,
but confidence in any one thunderstorm affecting the TAF sites is
very low, so will not mention them at this time. Skies are
expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74 102  71  99 /  10  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  74 103  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
Boise City OK              68 101  66  97 /  20  20  10  20
Borger TX                  77 106  72 104 /  10  20  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              74 104  70 101 /  10  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  72 100  70  99 /  10  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               72 103  72  99 /  10  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 68 102  66  99 /  20  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  71 102  67  98 /  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX                72 102  70 100 /  10  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                76 104  70 100 /  20  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   74 101  71  99 /  10  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                74 104  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              75 104  74 103 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ005-010-015-
     020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...15