656
FXUS64 KAMA 152231
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the
  weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each
  day.

- Localized flash flooding is also possible with thunderstorms
  this weekend, favoring the northwest combined Panhandles.

- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with
  widespread temperatures at or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Latest 16Z obs in the mid levels shows 2 notable perturbations
within the western periphery of the main anti-cyclonic feature.
The first is moving ENE across western NM and the second in moving
NNW just past the Rio Grande River. Main areas of lift out ahead
of both perturbations, coupled with convective temps of mid to
upper 90s to likely be achieved, areas of showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern NM Plains expanding east into the
western Panhandles is expected. Some of the latest CAM and hi-res
data also are picking up on a relatively weak sfc convergence
boundary setting up just along and north of the Canadian River
from roughly Adrian to Channing to Dumas to Waka. This secondary
area of convergence could also generate some storms during peak
heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to
severe in intensity, especially early on. Notable up-drafts in a
rather anemic effective shear environment that is more discrete
could support some large hail up to 1-1.25", especially for the
western Panhandles. As we continue into the evening hours,
damaging wind threat will be more probable as multi-cell storm
mode and/or forward propagating outflow/cold pools should be the
main storm mode. Along with severe wind and hail hazards, slow
moving and/or training storms in a PWAT environment of 75-99th
percentile, cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Residual
showers and low topped storms could trickle into the early
portions of the overnight period before conditions improve. High
temperatures this afternoon likely to still range from the mid 90s
to 105 in PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.

Potential rinse and repeat four Sunday, favoring the northern
Panhandles once again for diurnally driven shower and storms,
where we cannot rule out a strong to severe storms. But this time,
the activity High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid
80s in the NW to upper 90s to near 100 in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Not much of an exact accord between the latest global model
guidance for the long term forecast period. The slight majority
has the main H500 high and its center building over the Panhandles
by mid week drying out. Potential for other mid level disturbances
grazing the northern Panhandles with rain chances towards the end
of the forecast period, but confidence remain low for rain
chances at this time. High temperatures continue to be above
average as we go past mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms this evening will be the main forecast concern this
evening, primarily for Dalhart and Guymon. Thunderstorms may
produce strong downdrafts. Expecting light and variable winds
with VFR conditions after Midnight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52