291
FXUS64 KAMA 021132
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis today through Saturday.
Chances for severe thunderstorms are low, but probable each day.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards.

Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding scenarios today and Wednesday
across the combined Panhandles. The chances for flash flooding
are low but cannot be entirely ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thunderstorms throughout the short term period will create
conditional hazard cases for flooding, large hail, and damaging
winds.

Convective activity will kick start later this afternoon as
storms develop and move eastward out of New Mexico, Colorado, and
the western combined Panhandles. Forecast sounding suggest another
isolated severe threat could develop in the FA for storms with
the strongest updrafts. Weak shear will mostly inhibit more
organized convection; but if localized pockets of +35 kt effective
shear could be realized, an isolated supercell or two cannot be
ruled out. The primary hazards with all storm modes today will be
large hail and damaging winds. Seasonably high precipitable water
is still expected to spread across the High Plains. Storms that
develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could
lead to flooding in low lying areas. Their fast storm motion will
keep flash flood concerns low, but if thunderstorms are able to
train over the same locations within short amounts of time, the
flooding potential may rise above a typical "nuisance flooding"
event.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, storms should advance further
into the central and eastern Panhandles. Severe thunderstorm
chances should be much lower overnight, but storms with strong
elevated cores have the potential to produce hail in the early
morning hours. The same is true for our night time flooding
potential. Storms will continue into Wednesday morning, with some
breaks expected from precipitation. Yet, BKN to OVC cloud coverage
should remain steadfast over the CWA. The next round of storms
will develop in the afternoon, once again. Similar parameters are
in place like today, so we can expect a continuation of our
marginal environment for severe storms and flooding.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The overall upper level pattern continues to shift east with each
new forecast package. These changes will promote a progressive
eastward shift for PoPs and well as a slow increment of high
temperatures through the rest of the week. 90s may not return to
the region until this weekend, so 80s will prevail until then.
Chance PoPs (25-55%) will persist Thursday through Saturday.
Sunday onward we expect to return to drier and warmer conditions
until our next pattern change occurs.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity may be impacting
the KGUY area a bit longer, but should clear out shortly into the
period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through about 21Z.
After 21Z today, showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly likely especially for KDHT and KAMA. Storms capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out for
the combined Panhandles, primarily from 21Z through 03Z Wed.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...03