Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
791 FXUS64 KAMA 122337 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 637 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Rounds of light to moderate rain chances return to much of the area today through Tuesday. A few weak thunderstorms will be possible as well. - A cold front arrives tonight, providing cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 As of 16z, satellite and mesoanalysis show a subtle perturbation helping generate some weak showers showing up on radar, but not much of this is reaching the ground as measurable rain. Despite improving PWATs and dew pts across the southern Panhandle, this should continue to be the case, with only about a 15% chance to receive a few hundredths of rain as activity moves east-northeast this afternoon. Temperatures today may also top a few degrees cooler than previously forecast due to an abundance of cloud cover overhead. Not much has changed as we focus on Columbus Day, when we can expect far more seasonal conditions for mid-October. Current forecast highs are in the 60s and 70s, but northwestern counties of the forecast area have medium chances (40-70%) to stay in the 50s through much of the day. We`ll quickly begin watching precipitation potential behind the cold front Monday into Monday night. Winds will shift to northerly upon the fronts arrival tonight, advecting a pronounced area of drier low-level air out of the high plains and over the northwest Panhandles. The evolution of this dry air will initially dictate the westward extent of rain chances, dependent on the strength of moisture return to follow. If the dry slot cannot be overcome, the bulk of rainfall will be kept across the south and eastern Panhandles on Monday, especially south and east of Highway 60. However, most models show this dry region gradually shifting primarily over New Mexico, allowing strong low-level theta-e advection to moisten the column sufficiently through the day to support PWATs of 1-1.5" over the region, with near 60s dew pts at the surface. Southwest flow aloft should provide a few rounds of of better jet dynamics to enhance lift in tandem with improving moisture profiles, generating rounds of scattered showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms through the day. Looking at latest hi- res and probabilistic outputs, data still suggests a southwest to northeast oriented smattering of light to moderate rain should stretch across much of the CWA, lifting from south to north Monday into Tuesday morning. Overall, most rainfall totals should be 0.25" or less, especially across the northwest where precip will take longer to materialize before exiting the region. The southern to eastern Texas Panhandle still have highest probabilities (20-40%) to exceed 0.50" of rain by Tuesday morning, with locally higher totals up to an inch still within the realm of possibility (~10-15% chance). Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 We could see some lingering showers early Tuesday, but 500mb ridging is progged to lift northward and regain hold over the southern Plains, sending a large scale dry slot over the region by midweek. This pattern should reduce additional rain chances through the end of the work week to less than 15%. A warming trend should take place as well, recovering afternoon temperatures into the 70s and 80s Tuesday onward. However, we will be watching a larger system over the Pacific NW that models are struggling to handle the progression of through the week, which could re- invigorate some rain potential and provide another brief cool down towards next weekend. If the system tracks favorably and scrounges up enough moisture to the region, showers and storms may return by Thu-Fri according to some global guidance. One thing we can likely count on is that strengthening flow aloft ahead of this system is expected to set up another tightening pressure gradient over the Plains, spelling even more breezy south winds Wednesday and Thursday. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Mostly VFR conditions to prevail for the next 6 to 12 hours. Cigs will start to lower a bit as we get toward 12-15z and PROB30 groups will pick up at KAMA and KGUY for possible rain showers and MVFR/IFR cigs. Cold front will bring wind shifts out of the north as well. KDHT may not have any restrictions being mostly behind the cold front and drier air in place. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...89