167
FXUS64 KAMA 290526
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Patchy areas of fog will be possible across the southern Texas
  Panhandle this morning, as well as the northern Oklahoma
  Panhandle, with potential for localized areas of dense fog.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely later tonight through
  Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or flash
  flooding.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into Monday.
  Windy conditions are looking likely behind a cold front Monday
  and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

We will be monitoring for localized patchy fog development once
again (potentially dense in spots), lasting through the morning
hours. Given the amount of moisture in the ground across the
Panhandles (especially southern areas), we could see areas of fog
develop as winds diminish and temperatures cool to the mid 50s. A
weak frontal boundary could also help advect fog to the northern
Oklahoma Panhandle, primarily around sunrise. Any fog or low clouds
should burn off through the morning hours. Most of today`s weather
will stay quiet, with light winds and highs in the 70s.

As we progress through the day, troughing currently atop the Baja
Peninsula is forecast to translate northeastward toward the southern
Great Plains. This feature will place increasing southwest flow
aloft over the Panhandles, and begin to draw a fetch of moisture
northward from what is now Tropical Depression Vance. This
increasing saturation (PWATs 1.0-1.5") in conjunction with initial
rounds of disturbances will begin our opportunity for rain across
much of the Panhandles late this evening through the day Friday.
We could see more isolated convection form along a surface trough
across the north-northwest Panhandles this afternoon, but
probabilities of this occurring are only 20-30%. Most CAMs then
show the main swath of light-moderate showers with embedded weak
thunderstorms lifting south to north over the area, starting
between midnight and sunrise Friday. As we go through the day
tomorrow, a majority of the Panhandles should see light rain,
with embedded pockets of heavier rain mixed in. Activity should
gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday, as
the passage of the upper level trough axis provides a push of
drier mid-level air.

Probabilities for any measurable rain remain quite promising across
the Panhandles, with 60-90% POPs area wide tonight-tomorrow. The
RRFS and related guidance are some of the only models leaving
reason for concern, as they seem to filter in dry air before most
other data sets. We will monitor this potential, but it appears
to be an outlier. In general though, confidence in receiving heavy
rainfall by Saturday morning is highest across the south-
southeast TX Panhandle (40-80% chance for >1" rain). Probabilities
for heavy rain are relatively lower for the northwest (10-40%
chance for >0.5" rainfall), but isolated pockets of heavier rain
will still be achievable for these areas. Given the anticipated
"slow soaker" nature of this event, flash flooding potential
appears relatively low. However, given the amount of rain we`ve
received as of late keeping soils more saturated, it won`t take
much rain to produce nuisance flooding. Any embedded convection
with higher rain rates would be the only true concern for more
notable flooding.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

After a quiet Saturday, global models show additional rain chances
Sunday night into Monday as another deep trough approaches from
the west. This system is projected to have another strong push of
moisture from the south being advected to the region, which spells
30-60% rain probabilities for a majority of the CWA. However,
there does appear to be greater uncertainty with this system, as
models disagree on a few synoptic features. These disagreements
primarily hinge on differing track and timing of the trough, and
potential for a dry slot to infiltrate the region before best lift
arrives like the GFS currently shows. Regardless, it is likely
that there will be at least a brief window for showers and storms
Sunday-Sunday night.

We can anticipate a strong cold front to charge over the Panhandles
Monday as stout northwest flow aloft on the backside of the latter
trough passage stretches over the region. Quick pressure rises and
stacked jet dynamics behind this FROPA spells a solidly windy start
to the week Mon & Tue, with sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph
gusting 40 mph or possibly greater both days (10-40% chance for
gusts >50 mph). This will aid cold air advection to the southern
High Plains, with below average temperatures to follow on Tue and
Wed. Recent trends from global models have kept sufficient moisture
pooled behind the front Mon night into Tuesday, which could help
generate additional showers. If cloud cover and rain are as
prevalent as this data is suggesting, stronger wind gusts may become
less common or less likely altogether. Model agreement on synoptic
evolution further fractures beyond Tuesday, but it is becoming more
apparent that our active pattern will likely come to a halt.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are favored to prevail at all sites over the next
24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 kts, with the
exception of KGUY which will have more variable winds along a weak
boundary. Patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible again
early this morning, especially at KAMA and KGUY, but confidence in
reduced visibility is still low at this time. Amendments may be
needed through the morning hours.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38