996
FXUS64 KAMA 011121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- Precipitation chances remain low until they increase late this
  week.

- Temperatures stay near to below average this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Overall it`s shaping up to be a beautiful Labor Day as we wave
goodbye to the dog days of summer. Subsident conditions over the
region spell mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid
to upper 80s across the Panhandles today. Some CAMs suggest a
small cluster of storms may develop over southern KS this
afternoon, eventually riding the TX-OK state line before
dissipating, but this has less than 20% chances of impacting our
forecast area (if it even materializes). Expect similar
conditions Tuesday behind a weak front, which will set highs a few
degrees cooler in the 80s. A strong push of mid-level dry air
tomorrow and lack of weather system should make precipitation even
less likely.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Model trends have begun to show a significant downward trend in
precipitation potential Wednesday and Thursday, leaving best
opportunities Friday onward. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are
coming in much drier over recent runs, suggesting any
precipitation that does manage to fall before the weekend would be
relatively light (60-90% probability to stay below 0.25"). Likely
culprits for this trend appear to be lack of upper level systems
and meager moisture return, despite favorable northwest flow aloft
being maintained. Wednesday evening would be the better of the
two days for rain chances, when a cold front will dive south,
bringing slightly better lift and moisture with it. Once we reach
Friday into the weekend, the synoptic pattern will favor 20-30%
POPs each day.

Another change of tune from some models has occurred in regards
to temperatures. Wednesday is still likely to be the hottest day
of the week with some locations reaching the low 90s, but Thursday
may be on the warm side as well. Whereas previous forecasts
suggested highs in the 70s possible behind Wednesday night`s
frontal passage, temperatures in the 80s to low 90s may be on the
docket for Thu & Fri as well. If any area were most favored to
receive a legitimate cool down with any of the approaching fronts
this week, it would be the north-northeast Panhandles.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 5-10 kts
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29