886
FXUS64 KAMA 102330
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Wind speeds expected to increase across the Panhandles this
weekend. Fire weather concerns remain very low.

Very low chances to see a few sprinkles Saturday night in the
Northwestern Panhandles with showers moving out of New Mexico.

Our next cold front is expected to arrive on Sunday night into Monday.
Highs will see a 10-15 degree disparity across the CWA with
chances of showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Model agreement continues to trend for the building of the upper-
level ridge over the Panhandles, which is expected to keep drier
weather present through the weekend. Temperatures are also
expected to stay warm with afternoon highs holding in the 80s.
However, most models look to see a lee-side low continue to build
just off the southern portion of the Front Range today and
Saturday. While this placement does not aid in our chances of
precipitation, it does force our typical set up for down sloping
winds as well as tighten our pressure gradient at the surface.
These two factor have lead to the expectation of breezy to gusty
winds being seen across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon with the
Northwest looking to see the strongest of these winds. However,
present trends on recent model runs have seen the upper-level jet
support that was initially there come in a lot weaker. The lack of
this support will keep winds from getting too strong over the
course of the day, though a few gust peaking around 40 mph are not
out of the question. Under normal circumstances, this set up would
also prompt concerns for elevated fire weather, but the continue
monsoonal pattern to our west has been able to keep moisture
present over the Panhandles. At this time most models expect
minimum relative humidity values to stay around 28 to 35% for the
day. Add these decent values to reports of very green fuels across
most of the Panhandles, and fire starts will be harder to come by
for the afternoon. Instead we may have to watch for a few showers
sneaking off the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours
of Saturday. Currently, present CAM analysis has seen the
potential, but most of their soundings suggest that anything that
can survive the trip would only be able to produce sprinkles at
best.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Our drier and warmer weather looks to start breaking down as
models continue to trend for a cold front to push in late Sunday
night into Monday morning. This frontal passage will look to try
and force more chances of active weather across the Panhandles. To
its advantage will be the still linger moisture from the monsoonal
push to our west and a little extra that sneaks in last minute
from the gulf. This moisture has been trending to keep PWAT values
above the 1 inch mark with parts of the Southeast nearing the 1.5
inch mark. The biggest problem is going be how fast this front
actually push through the area as most guidance is expecting a
pretty dry cold air mass to be following right behind it. If this
front can come through on a slower pace, then showers may linger
much longer and give us better chances to see higher rainfall
totals. However, a much faster pace would see a lot of the
expected activity occurring much further south with totals in the
Panhandles much lower. This pace will also effect chances that
could follow for Monday into Tuesday as most model do expect this
front to stall and create more chances south of its position
thanks to moisture continuing to push in from the gulf. Once again
if it is too fast and too far south then those chances plummet.
For now guidance is a bit in the middle as chances are around 20
to 40% for Monday before looking to drop to around 10 to 20% that
night. Otherwise, look for drier weather to return by Wednesday
with most model seeing the ridge build back in through the end of
next week. As for temperatures, look for highs to fall back into
the 70s Monday and Tuesday before slow warming back into the low
80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions remain in place for all TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Strong winds are forecast to effect all TAF sites tomorrow
afternoon. Southwesterly winds will flow between 15-25 kts, with
gusts over 35 kts possible at all terminals. Winds may not subside
even after 00Z Sunday.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55