Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
269 FXUS64 KAMA 220338 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Summer heat wave continues will highs near or above 100 through at least early next week with few exceptions. - Low chance (10-20%) for isolated to widely scattered afternoon & evening storms this weekend, with slightly higher chances each evening next week. .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side. Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn`t likely based on weak wind profile). Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that our high pressure will start shifting west slightly Monday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two next week partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also just in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting. Ward && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Main concern will continue to be the low end storm chances which currently favor KAMA Saturday afternoon. Currently chances are too low to include TS mention, but outflow from convection moving through CO and KS and OK later this morning will result in a wind shift potentially at all sites later today depending on strength and timing of said outflow. This is also the feature that may trigger new storms across the southern terminal later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions should remain with light southerly or variable winds. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07