285
FXUS64 KAMA 281733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue in the short term with
  widespread 100s, but a gradual decrease is expected through the
  weekend with upper 90s being more common.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue today through Friday,
  primarily in the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The latest water vapor imagery shows anticyclonic flow centered
over northeast New Mexico with a plume of monsoon moisture
extending from AZ through the central rockies and adjacent plains.
The high pressure responsible for our recent heat wave has finally
started to shift west of the Panhandle region. Cloud debris from
overnight convection has been burning off through the day and
should allow for one more very hot afternoon with widespread 105
to 110 apparent temperatures. Given this, we have heat advisories
for most of the combined Panhandles with Palo Duro Canyon under
an extreme heat warning with some of the hottest temperatures of
around 110 expected. The high pressure will continue to shift
westward over the next few days leading to cooler highs in the
low 100s tomorrow. Thus, fewer heat products are anticipated after
today, mainly covering our hot spots around the area.

As the high pressure shifts west, steering flow will become more
favorable for storms to push into the northwest Panhandles during
the evening and overnight hours (similar to last night). These
storms will be moving into increasingly dry air as they move
southeast, so there will be a sharp cutoff to the storm activity
based on the dry H7 theta-E advection indicated in the southeast
half of the Panhandle region. Storms in the northwest today and
tomorrow will be in the rich monsoon moisture plume where PWATs
are around 90th-95th percentile, and with slow storm motion could
pose a localized flooding threat. While a rogue wind gust can`t be
ruled out given high DCAPE, the probability for severe storms is
very low due to marginal shear and instability.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure continues to shift more over the Desert Southwest
through the weekend which will allow temperatures to fall to
slightly above normal with high 90s being common. Storm chances
will also peak around late Thursday into Friday as northwest flow
becomes more prominent and stronger. This will allow shortwave
energy to traverse the area providing more widespread lift. The
big questions now is with quality of moisture and instability,
along with position of a weak cold front going into Friday. If the
storm activity ends up being more widespread late Thursday,
temperatures may be a bit cooler than currently forecasted leading
to more 90s on Friday rather than near 100.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Main concern will be for low probability (20-30%) thunderstorm
impacts this evening at KDHT and KGUY. Any storm could produce
brief MVFR conditions due to heavy rain. An outflow boundary is
expected to shift winds to the north late this evening into the
overnight, with gusty conditions expected. A rogue wind gust over
40kts is not out of the question, but chances are very low.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with southerly winds at 5 to 10
kts.

Ward

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-007>020.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07