956
FXUS64 KAMA 021722
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1122 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 925 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Tornado Watch #700 in effect until 2 am for portions of the TX
   and OK Panhandles.

-  Windy day across the region on Monday with gusts to 40 mph
   possible

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 925 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Severe weather possible over the next several hours across the
region. A tornado watch is in effect until 2 am and currently there
are thunderstorms increasing in intensity and coverage across
northeast and east central NM. Concerns for QLCS tornadoes and
damaging winds will exist with this line. Strong forcing with the
lead shortwave trough in NM is promoting the development of these
storms. The environment is one with sufficient cape and strong shear
(current AMA VAD Wind showing over 400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH and 50kt
of 0-6km shear) so tornadoes and damaging winds are possible. As
this shortwave trough swings through the area the main upper trough
will also swing through Monday afternoon. Surface moisture will
diminish rapidly behind the line of storms tonight and then a cold
front will move through the area late tomorrow afternoon or early
evening ushering in some cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 925 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The next shortwave will move across the area by mid week but with
moisture being scarce just a chance of precip across the northeast
is possible as it skirts by. The next bigger trough will approach by
the weekend and that is when the next best chance of precip will
be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Present observations from the terminals this afternoon have seen
good mixing of the mid-level jet with all terminals seeing surface
wind gust upward of 30 to 40 knots. These winds are likely to be
present the rest of the day as we continue to get behind the upper-
level low and see the mid-level jet strengthen further.
Meanwhile, KGUY continues to trend towards seeing showers with
some embedded thunderstorms later this evening, which will likely
seem them drop back into MVFR to IFR conditions for the overnight.
Beyond that, look for KAMA and KDHT to stay on the drier side
with VFR conditions looking to hold for the package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Tuesday for
     TXZ001-006.

OK...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Tuesday for
     OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...11