Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
873 FXUS64 KAMA 021827 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Seasonable temperatures through Thursday, with a cold front expected Friday, leading to below normal temperatures this weekend. - Very limited precipitation chances tomorrow, with an uptick in chances over the weekend. - The weekend has potential to be very wet, but there is low confidence as we are watching a tropical system and the track of its remnants. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Near to slightly below normal temperatures today in wake of a weak cold front that clipped the Panhandles. Highs remain in the mid 80s to a couple spots that may touch 90 today. Warmer temperatures in store for tomorrow as we move into the 90s. There is a potent upper trough setting up over the Great Lakes and multiple impulses are expected to track along the main circulation. One of which is set to push a quick shortwave and weak cold front with it tomorrow afternoon. This is expected to set off some showers and storms (possibly severe) stretching from the Great Lakes all the way down to our northeast portion of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Very low pops are in the forecast to account for this, as confidence is still low ~20% that we get a storm or two. Despite the weak cold front with this system, we expect a surge of warmer air to move in on Thursday ahead of the next impulse that will be discussed in the long term. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 A very warm and fairly dry northwest flow will continue Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. But a very large scale upper trough will continue to settle over the Great Lakes, providing well below normal temperatures to the midwest Those cooler temperatures will likely expand south to our area Friday and into the weekend, as a secondary system coming from Alaska, and across western Canada, is progged to latch onto the Great Lakes trough. That should provide enough of a surge in the cooler air to move through the Panhandles Friday, and last most of the weekend, finishing out with a rebound to near normal temperatures Monday as a ridge rebuilds over the western CONUS. Big thing we are watching for the weekend is the moisture potential. It`s very much up in the air, but we have a tropical system setting up over the Baja currently, and depending on if it holds together, as well as it`s timing of when it ejects to the northeast towards Texas on Friday, we could be looking 1 to 2" of rainfall for a good chunk of the Texas Panhandle, over about a 48 hour period. Now a lot can still go wrong with this, as some models have hinted at the system losing significant organization over the Baja, and not much would be left by the time it moves off to the northeast. Also, if the large scale Great Lakes trough pushes the drier air too far south, the system itself will just be suppressed further south as well. So still a lot of things to iron out as we get closer. ` Weber && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds coming around the clock and remaining below 10kts for the most part. Mostly clear skies expected as well. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89