077
FXUS64 KAMA 251815
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
115 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Light showers continue across the western an towards the central
Panhandles this afternoon and evening. We may get enough
instability for some pop up storms as well. Shear is very weak
aloft so, storms are not expected to be severe, and will likely
track to the north northeast with the mean flow. As the high
pressure over the Tennessee Valley continues to shift east the
flow will transition more southwesterly aloft. With that shift
tomorrow we can expect an uptick in thunderstorm coverage to be
more scattered, and there may even be a shortwave to help with
some lift in the afternoon. Right now we`re not outlooked for any
severe weather and given the warmer air aloft as well as the very
moist environment, it just doesn`t seem likely for damaging winds
or large hail, despite ML CAPE values in the 1000-2500 J/kg range.
Will note that deterministic models are much more bullish for
scattered to widespread storms tomorrow, but high res models,
while do indicate some storms, are more limited in coverage and
time is about 4 to 8 pm for storms. It will be interesting to see
how much the shortwave helps tomorrow with the coverage.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Friday and Saturday flow will become more disorganized as a broad
scale high attempts to develop. Right now pops are below 20
percent, so no mention of thunderstorm in the forecast. However,
will not rule out a subtle wave that moves across the Panhandle
and helps to trigger some afternoon showers/storms. We can just
convect as well given daytime heating. Come Saturday night the
high looks to be set up so that we`ll get ample return flow from
the south, and we may get some scattered showers and storms across
the Panhandles. NBM is not too excited on the pops at this moment,
but some deterministic models certainly favoring the moisture
return. This moisture return will continue Sunday through Tuesday
across the Panhandles, and daily showers and storms are looking
pretty favorable at this time.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with some VCSH and
holding off on the thunder, as models have backed off quite a bit,
especially over the Dalhart area. May still have to amend the
forecast as a storm could always pop up and briefly threaten the
terminal, but the concerns are less than 30 percent, so not even
going PROB30 for any site. Winds generally southerly in the 15 to
25 kt range, calming down in the 10 to 15kt range later in the
03-06z time period.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89