Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
748 FXUS64 KAMA 082314 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 614 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 - A cold front will bring increased chances for storms to the area Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. - Above average temperatures are expected to continue most days over the next week, but weak cool fronts could provide occassional heat relief. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Observational data shows a 596 dam ridge still solidly atop the southern Great Plains today, with troughing over the NW CONUS. This pattern is perpetuating high temperatures in the 94-104 degree range this afternoon. A corridor of higher moisture is progged to be in place along the periphery of the upper level ridge across the northwest Panhandles, where a weak disturbance could help generate scattered showers/storms in the afternoon-evening hours (20-40% POPs). Higher theta-e could be advected further south across the Texas Panhandle, which may be just sufficient enough for some spotty popcorn convection to develop with daytime heating. However, large scale subsidence across most of the Panhandles will probably be too detrimental for any meaningful precipitation to materialize (<10% POPs). As seen in previous days, CAPE and shear space is less than ideal for organized severe storms, but the environment will still be conducive for any activity to produce strong downburst winds. Rain chances are set to peak across the forecast area Wednesday as a cold front reaches and gradually stalls over the Panhandles. Rich moisture and slightly cooler temperatures will be advected behind the front, with 60s dew points and PWAT values approaching the climatological max for this time of year (>1.5"). There is still some disagreement, but most models show this front initially stalling along or north of the Canadian River Valley tomorrow afternoon. This is where initial scattered showers/storms will develop, but the front should transition southward through the late afternoon-evening with diurnally driven convection popping up closer to the I-40 corridor. High DCAPE values (1500-2000 J/kg) and inverted-V forecast soundings ahead of the front support a threat of damaging wind gusts with any storm. Cooling 500mb temps (-5 to -7 deg C) in conjunction with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and ~20kt 0-6km shear may be conducive for a severe hail threat as well, if more aggressive guidance comes to fruition. The already low severe threat should diminish overnight, but an approaching upper level shortwave should maintain precipitation through much of the overnight hours into Thu morning. Looking at the big picture, chances for any measurable rainfall are 40-70% across the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Despite increasing storm coverage through the evening hours, the key word to describe activity will be "scattered". A large portion of the Panhandles will have numerous activity showing up on radar tomorrow-tomorrow night, but not everyone will be so lucky to receive beneficial moisture (60-80% chance to get less than 0.5" rainfall). Pockets of heavy rainfall are certainly expected though, especially with the rich moisture content forecast. Localized 1- 3"/hr rainfall rates will occur in any stronger storms, which could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns, especially along and north of I-40. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 The weak frontal boundary will progress further south on Thursday, keeping temperatures cooler in the 80s & 90s while likely settling south of the I-40 corridor between Amarillo and Lubbock. In the upper levels, a lead shortwave is projected to cross over the NE Panhandles into western OK, with a secondary disturbance within northwest flow trailing further west across the region. The lead shortwave will be responsible for early morning convection across primarily the northern and eastern Panhandles, that should gradually die off later in the day once upper lift departs. Isolated to scattered afternoon-evening convection could then develop with either of the aforementioned disturbances, but CAMs are split on which system is more likely to produce anything. The southern and eastern Texas Panhandle would hypothetically be most favored for storms, with closer proximity to the boundary and lead shortwave (20-50% POPs). However, if the lead wave is too far removed to our east, subsidence could keep much of the area subdued. Then, our attention would shift to the western Panhandles where several models hint that the trailing disturbance could initiate scattered storms through the evening hours (20-40% POPs). Regardless, CAPE and shear values could be even more favorable for severe storms Thursday, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 25-40kt 0-6km shear being forecast. There are concerns with mid-level capping inversions seen in forecast soundings causing convection to struggle, but this should not completely negate a severe threat. Damaging winds, large hail, and localized flooding from torrential rainfall would be the primary hazards. Our active pattern takes a break Friday, as we unfortunately return to near triple digit heat. Most models project high pressure staying shunted just south of the Panhandles to end the week into next week, which will allow weak fronts to reach the area Saturday, and again next Mon-Tue. Daily temperatures are forecast to gradually trend cooler as a result, possibly even briefly returning near seasonal averages in the 80s mid next week. Ample moisture should stick around the region as well, meaning more precipitation opportunities could be in the cards with any front and synoptic system. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The major exception will be during the passage of a thunderstorm over a terminal. This evening there is a low chance for thunderstorms to impact KDHT and KGUY with the chances being too low to reflect within the current TAFs. The next round of thunderstorms has a medium chance of impacting all terminals Wednesday afternoon and evening. This round of storms will have a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong downburst winds. High moisture will allow any storm, either today or Wednesday, to produce heavy rainfall that can cause MVFR to IFR visibilities. Outside of the storms a weak surface boundary moving across the panhandles on Wednesday will make for more variable wind directions. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...98