190
FXUS64 KAMA 031911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding this afternoon
and tonight across the Panhandles.

- Active weather still continues through the extended, but there is
a potential drying trend, where Saturday is an exception.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

MCV drifting into the northwest Panhandle will likely keep showers
and storms out of play from Amarillo to Guymon and west of that
line.  Maybe enough clearing and instability can get something
going, but further east we`re already seeing storms develop as
warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
While the better shear is more in the northwest, there is still
reasonable shear to work with and ML CAPE values in the 1500-2000
J/kg range so that storms could be strong to severe. Expect
scattered storms to continue through about 9 to 10 PM this evening
across the east, but we could see another round of storms move into
the west late this evening and into the overnight period.  This
would be mainly focused in the Dalhart to Dumas to Amarillo area and
west of that line as we have a disturbance that should trigger some
storms off the mountains and then they should cluster together as an
MCS and track southeast across into the western and southwestern  TX
Panhandle tonight.

Not much to work with tomorrow and we should get a break in the
weather for most areas, as a weak wave is progged to move across
mostly zonal flow.  If convection occurs most areas are trying in
the southeast Panhandle, but maybe something sneaks in the northwest
off the mountains as we will be much warmer in the mid to upper 80s
across the Panhandles, so will not rule out enough heating for
convection.  But overall, most of the Panhandles may be too worked
over for storms on Thursday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Friday is another day similar to Thursday, but not so much that the
area is worked over for storms, but more so that the next weather
disturbance is displaced too far south for confidence in any
moisture, and the main shortwave embedded in the westerly flow that
could help trigger off afternoon storms is too far north.  Still,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, will not
rule out enough heating for some isolated storms to occur.

Saturday is the day to look at as the upper disturbance to the south
is projected to track northward and looks to bring moisture and
instability to the central and eastern Panhandles.  Showers and
storms will be favored for this area on Saturday, with more drier
conditions in the western Panhandles.  Depending on how this system
tracks Saturday evening could result in some back side wrap around
moisture for the western Panhandles, but confidence is not too high
for pops at this time.

Sunday through Tuesday as the system tracks northwest we go into a
more Omega blocking pattern in the extended and that will typically
favor warm and dry conditions.  It just depends on where the ridge
will set up and how amplified it becomes as to if precipitation is
even possible, but for now the main focus for the isolated
precipitation chance will be the western Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours. We will be watching the 21-01z time frame for possible
amendments if storms pop up near any TAF sites, but for now it
looks like they should be east of the terminals. A better chance
for storms looks to be in that 4-8z time frame and have PROB30s to
cover that timeline. Otherwise winds 10 to 15kts out of the south
to southwest, with scattered to broken mid clouds expected.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89