Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
923 FXUS64 KAMA 161903 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms in the area will provide localized heavy rainfall with low risk for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary hazard tonight and Thursday. - Slightly above average temperatures are expected to return for the weekend with pockets of triple digit heat possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cold front had reached from near Liberal to Texline at 1830 UTC. This boundary will move little and will become the main focus for thunderstorm development as a ridge roller disturbance works across the area overnight and interacts with abundant moisture in place. ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/KG will provide enough instability to support severe storms, but wind shear is forecast to be somewhat low and this is the limiting factor keeping the area in lower end severe threat categories tonight. Wind may provide the slightly greater threat given warm mid-level temperatures, but lower end severe hail can`t be ruled out. A 30 kt LLJ and aforementioned high moisture is also providing a flood threat across the north. If the boundary moves slow enough, would not be surprised to see a small localized area or two in the OK panhandle receive 3 to 5 inches of rain. This is supported by some more agressive high resolution models. Highest POPs and threat will be in the OK Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle, but low POPs for storms along outflow are included late tonight for even far southern counties. A flood watch may be needed for portions of the NW Panhandles. Thursday, much will depend on location of outflow boundaries and cold front after tonights activity. Several high-res models show the boundary stalling in the southern Texas Panhandle. Some show it pushing well south to just shy of LUB, but then show it retreating back to the southern Panhandle by afternoon. Where ever the boundary ends up, with good SFC to h7 moisture, it will have potential to become the focus for SCT aftn TSTM development on Thursday aftn with strong daytime heating. It seems the areas near or just south of I- 40 are favored for the location for this initial development, but we shall have to see. The next ridge riding s/wv will arrive by evening. This combined with the old front and outflows will bring the NW into play and this is where the highest POPs are shown. Again, there will be a low end severe threat for Thursday with any storms that form. Again, with high PWs (above the 90th percentile for the date), the threat of locally heavy rainfall may provide the greater threat, especially if one of these storms were to impact urban areas (ie AMA) during the afternoon commute. A quick localized 1-1.5 inch rainfall will be possible and based on the HREF, there is a 10-20 percent chance of 2 inch per hour rainfall rate (within 25 miles of any given point) across areas near I-40 in the afternoon and then across the northwest Panhandles later in the evening. Gittinger && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 H5 (mid level) ridge will meander across the Gulf Coast and Deep South with a strengthening trend toward a high center near TN toward the end of the period. The western end feature will extend toward W Texas and the Panhandles over the weekend leading to warming temperatures and relatively low TSTM chances mainly confined to the far N and NW where southern fringes of ridge riding disturbances may have enough influences to bring tail end of activity focused further north across those areas. Given this, there remains a 10-20 POP Sat across the far NW 1/4 of the area. The western edge of the trough will get eroded by disturbances working across the ridge from the west and even easterly waves that come all the way around the southern side of the system along the gulf coast early next week. Meanwhile the h7 moisture axis does extend across the area at times from the west. There are quite a few LREF members indicating precip chances with these waves and the general weakness that develops. The NBM POPs are generally less than 15%, but it should be noted that is up from less than 10 percent the previous run, so it does seem to be trending toward some TSTM chances early next week which makes sense based on model fields. Details on location, timing etc are not in good agreement, but stay tuned for potential introduction of POPs some of these periods next week. Outside of that, the main story will be warming temperatures with lots of upper 90s and few hotpots near 100 degrees. Doesn`t look like a setup with advisories, outside of the canyon possibly, but these would be some of the warmer readings of the summer thus far. Gittinger && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area this evening and overnight with greatest potential for impacts at GUY and DHT. Chances are too low to include in AMA for now, but updates could be needed. A frontal boundary and low level moisture will bring MVFR conditions from north to south early Thursday and IFR conditions can not be completely ruled out. GUY is the only site with high enough probabilities of MVFR to mention in the TAF, but will keep close tabs on DHT and AMA for potential these low clouds reach further south than anticipated. Gittinger && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM....MJG AVIATION...MJG