507
FXUS64 KAMA 301140
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- The ongoing heavy rainfall threat will continue into Wednesday,
  focused across the western and central Panhandles. A Flood
  Watch continues.

- A low chance of additional severe weather exists in the central
  Panhandles tonight and in the far eastern Panhandles Wednesday
  morning, with damaging wind being the main threat.

- Drier and cooler conditions arrive late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing across the western and central Panhandles in response to
the potent upper level storm system in the southwestern United
States late this evening. Tropical moisture flowing into the area
ahead of the upper system led to precipitable water values on the
30/00Z AMA sounding of 1.65 inches, which is near record levels
for this time of year. The copious moisture is fueling the ongoing
heavy rain threat that will continue across this same area through
at least early Wednesday morning. A gradual north and eastward
shift in the heavier rain should occur with time, as the upper
system makes a closer approach and the dry slot moves into the
region from the southwest. A low chance of strong to severe
storms with mainly a damaging wind threat will exist Wednesday
morning before things shift east, in association with a continued
strong low level jet and surge in instability. The potential for
brief spin-ups will continue, although that overall threat is very
low. Given the track of the system as it moves across the region
Wednesday into Thursday and associated wraparound moisture, rain
chances and some thunder potential will linger across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, although additional
amounts are expected to be light. A cold front will move into the
region on the backside of the upper system Thursday, bringing
cooler conditions and breezy northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Cooler temperatures and northerly winds will extend into Friday,
with drier conditions also likely to arrive areawide on Friday.
Upper level high pressure forecast to be in the western United
States by the weekend looks to nose toward the Panhandles,
moderating temperatures somewhat and keeping dry conditions in
place. While temperatures look to be warmer compared to Thursday
and Friday, they should still be a few degrees below normal until
possibly the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

We will still continue to fluctuate from LIFR to potentially VFR
over the next 6 to 12 hours as we gradually move out of this post
tropical storm system. Currently KAMA is VFR, but TEMPO group for
the next couple hours in place as MVFR/IFR conditions could
briefly return. MVFR/IFR conditions will vary at KDHT and KGUY but
overall around 18z we should see most sites back to VFR as the
rain ends. There is a chance for showers to return later in the
TAF period and that might result in lower cig/vis but confidence
not high enough to add PROB30s at this time. Winds this afternoon
will be out of the west to southwest 15kts gusting 25 to 30kts.

Weber

Flight
category reductions should be expected into the daylight hours
Wednesday at all 3 terminals due to widespread rainfall and
extensive low cloud cover. Both IFR visibilities and ceilings are
possible before daybreak. Although the chance of thunderstorms is
nonzero at all 3 sites, the best chance will be at AMA. Winds will
shift to the southwest late morning into early afternoon and
increase in speed/gustiness as the dry slot moves northeast. This
will also lead to improvement in the ceilings and a decrease in
the potential for further showers/storms. Winds will shift a
second time to a northerly direction at DHT and GUY as a cold
front begins to move in Wednesday evening. The northerly wind
shift at AMA should hold off until after the end of the valid TAF
period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ001>003-006>008-
     011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...89