648
FXUS64 KAMA 052009
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
209 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

-Critical fire weather conditions remain this afternoon for the
 central and western Panhandles with wind headlines for most of
 the western Panhandles.

-A series of fronts from Sunday into next week will bring cold
 temperatures and perhaps some winter precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 157 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

As of the latest 19Z satellite and surface obs, the remaining
areas of low clouds have now retreated back to the east, where the
far eastern Panhandles are still holding on to some low clouds.
Temperatures had to be adjusted to take into account this cloud
cover. Temperatures are struggling to get out of the 50s as a
result in the far east. Meanwhile, 70s to lower 80s will still be
expected throughout the remainder of the Panhandles.

Very dry air with Td values in the single digits in some areas
were lower than all of the latest CAM data sets. This has
expanded our Fire Weather concerns for this afternoon and early
evening which more info can be found in the Fire Weather section.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue throughout the
short term forecast period. After warm temperatures today, a
backdoor cold front will move into the Panhandles from the
northeast. This will drop high temperatures back to the mid 50s
to lower 60s for the northern combined Panhandles with a few
locations in the SW TX Panhandle in the lower 70s.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon are expected to
continue for the western and central combined Panhandles. RH
values and Td temperatures have been drier than the high res model
data-sets have predicted. Min RH values as low as 6 percent is
possible. With gusty winds across the western Panhandles with 20
ft winds sustained around 30 mph, with low RH values, this will
result in max RFTI values of 6 to 8. ERC values will be as high as
the 60 to 65th percentile, especially across the western
Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Mid week through the first half of the weekend should remain dry
with small fluctuation in temperatures, but should remain at to
slightly above average throughout this section of the forecast
period. Starting the second half of the weekend, latest 05/12Z
model and numerical data shows a cold front that will move south
through the Panhandles that will drop temperatures near to below
average by Sunday. A second surge of cold air could enter the
Panhandles with a second cold front towards the end of the TAF
period. This has a current low (10-30%) chance of winter
precipitation associated with a secondary system in wake of the
cold front. Will have to monitor closely as we get closer to
early next week. Temperatures will be well below average for
early February as we go towards the end of the long term forecast
period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR cigs have finally arrived to start the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. VFR cigs are expected to continue throughout the entire
TAF period. Winds at KDHT/KAMA to start will be sustained out of
the southwest between 15-30 kts with higher gusts at times. Winds
at all TAF sites past 00Z Thursday will subside back to 5-15 kts
sustained through to the end of the TAF period with mostly clear
skies.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                42  70  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  31  54  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              34  59  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  39  66  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              36  72  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  39  72  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               44  69  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 33  68  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  31  56  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                40  75  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                37  56  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   42  63  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                42  64  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              41  67  32  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>003-
     006>008-011>013-016-017-317.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ001-006-011.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ001-002.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29