146
FXUS64 KAMA 081837
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

-  Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday.
   Obey all burn bans and practice fire safety to avoid starting
   a fire.

-  Potentially impactful rain chances are in place for the
   weekend across the combined Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Very
   low end chances for snowfall exist at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Today will be the calm day before the next weather system.
Temperatures remain well above normal under the big blue sunny
skies.

Monday and Tuesday a weather system approaches and then moves across
the southern plains. For Monday the weather system will be
approaching the plains as it gets picked up in the broad scale flow
and moves to the northeast. This will setup a leeside low east of
the rockies that will in turn tighten the low level pressure
gradient over the panhandles. This setup will lead to windy
conditions across the panhandles that will cause the southwest winds
to gust in the 30s to even 40 mph range. These winds will drive in
warmer air from the southwest that will also experience downslope
warming. Both of these factors will drive up the temperatures to
well above normal to the point that the warmest spots breach into
the 80s. This air will be dry which combined with the warming will
drive down the RH to the single digits making Monday a very dry day.
Such windy conditions coupled with very dry conditions makes the
fire weather conditions elevated to critical across the entire
panhandles. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for much of the NW
half of the panhandles due to the critical fire conditions. It is
best to practice fire safety to prevent any wildfire that could
destroy your community.

Monday night the leeside low becomes a full surface low across the
northern panhandles. This will most likely continue to cause breezy
winds to persist during the overnight hours. This can prolong the
elevated fire conditions during the early overnight. The surface
will begin to push off to the east during the early morning hours of
Tuesday. This will cause the winds to shift to a northerly direction
bringing in both cooler and moister air. This combo will end any
lingering fire weather conditions in the panhandles. The winds will
most likely become gusty again after sunrise allows for mixing
across the panhandles with the gusty conditions lasting through the
afternoon. This is unlikely to cause any further fire concerns due
to the increased moisture over the panhandles. During the afternoon
the upper portion of the weather system moves across the southern
plains. This will draw up some limited moisture into the southern TX
panhandles leading to a low chance for light rain showers. However,
since the moisture is not significant any resulting rain showers
will most likely lead to minor amounts of rain accumulations of a
few hundreths of an inch. The light rain showers will most likely
persist into early Wednesday morning before coming to an end for the
panhandles. The cooler air will lead to lower temperatures across
the panhandles but even then the temperatures will remain above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Wednesday and Thursday still have a high chance of seeing the large
scale weather pattern shift. This would entail the jet stream
sinking southward settling across the southern plains. While this
transition takes place the southern plains will most likely remain
with dry and warm weather. Come late Thursday moisture starts to
return to the panhandles leading to a low chance for light rain
showers.

There is increasing chance for a weather system to form within the
jet stream late on Thursday. This system would transit eastward
impacting the southern plains on Friday and Saturday. The passage of
this weather system will draw up more moisture to the panhandles and
provide the necessary lift to cause wide spread precipitation. The
most likely form of this precipitation will be rain as temperatures
will still be above normal for the weekend.
The only exception looks to be the NW corner of the panhandles
Friday night into Saturday where it can get cold enough for some
mixed precipitation. The amount of water accumulation from this
weather system remain uncertain and will likely change. The very
early estimate puts between a quarter to half of an inch of liquid
across most of the panhandles. The weather system seems most likely
to depart on Sunday which would lend higher chances for a drier
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. There will be windy and gusty conditions at all
terminals for Monday. These winds will be mainly from the southwest
through all of Monday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ001>013-016-
     017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Monday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98