140
FXUS64 KAMA 051950
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Low/Medium chance 20-40% of showers and storms this evening and
  tomorrow evening across the northern Panhandles. Low chance
  5-14% for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary
  concern.

- Hot temperatures to return this weekend with highs likely in the
  100 to 108 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Northwest flow will continue today and tomorrow which will support
afternoon storms off the high terrain that could track across the
Panhandles. Additionally we do have a residual frontal boundary
across the northern Panhandle which could result in isolated to
scattered storms that develop over the Panhandle this evening.
Model soundings indicate that there still may be too much of a cap
for those storms to occur. If storms do occur we`ll have decent
effective shear across the northern Panhandles with ML CAPE values
around 750-1500 J/kg.  While DCAPE values are in the 1500-1800
J/kg range later this evening, the storm motion may be enough to
get the gusts over 75mph, so while the most likely wind gusts will
be 50+ mph, can`t rule out a gust that reaches 75 mph. Tonight as
storms start to collapse there is a hint of an onion sounding
potential and therefore will not rule out heat bursts on
collapsing thunderstorms, and those could certainly see gusts up
to 75 mph as well.

Thursday as the frontal boundary nearly exits the Panhandle we`ll
have another subtle wave track over the area in the northeast
Panhandle in the late afternoon. This appears to be the focus of
where the best chances of showers and storms will develop. That
being said upper level flow will start to shift more north to
northwest over the Panhandles in the evening during the storms and
that will help steer any storms that develop to track south to
southwest. If a cluster of storms does manage to form along that
frontal boundary and merge into an MCS then we could see that
cluster tracking from northeast to southwest tomorrow evening.
Overall, strong damaging wind will continue to be the primary
threat but will not rule out some hail up to pennies.
Additionally, should the storms converge into an MCS cluster the
PWATS tomorrow do range from 1.30-1.50" and that would support
heavy rain, and possible localized flooding. Storms should
diminish in the late evening with the loss of heating and may
linger into the early overnight hours, leaving outflow boundaries
that have the potential to aid in further storm development on
Friday.

Other mentionable notes will be the continued heat. Palo Duro
Canyon on a daily basis will continue to be close to or exceed
heat advisory criteria until the end of the forecast period, but
Borger could get close to, maybe even tie the record high of 105.
The forecast for Borger is 104 on Thursday.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Friday a more northerly flow will be over the Panhandles, which is
generally less favorable for storm development, however residual
outflow boundaries and perhaps a subtle wave may move through in
the afternoon to trigger storm development. If a storm develops it
will likely track due south. Outflow boundaries will most likely
reside in the north given where the best chances of storms are on
Thursday, but if we do get the MCS noted in the short term that
could lead to outflow boundaries that could hold more over the
Canadian River Valley and I-40 corridor. But overall storm motion
will be about 5-15 mph to the south on Friday. Saturday through
Tuesday the high pressure will continue to linger just east of the
Four Corners and keep us under more of that north to
northeasterly flow. Pops for the extended for the most part will
be less than 15 percent. There is a hint that the ridge may start
to break down early in the work week, but confidence is still very
low < 15% at this point.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites, with few-bkn
mid to high clouds. Exception to VFR conditions will be KDHT in
the 0-3z time frame, as we do have a PROB 30 group for
thunderstorms. Overall winds in the 15kt gusting 25kt range and
will mainly be out of the south, but may shift northwesterly in
the 02-06z time frame.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89