492
FXUS64 KAMA 200512
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 -Rain and thunderstorm chances increase for all of the Panhandles
  by mid week, which may also lead to some flooding concerns as
  well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

As of the latest 04Z observations, watching several outflow
boundaries traverse the Panhandles, generally from west to east.
These outflow boundaries should also progress the main cold front,
eventually south of the Texas Panhandle by mid morning on Sunday.
This should keep any initial convection along the front itself
well south of the region. Latest 00-03Z hi-res model data does
show a second area of established convection upstream of the
Panhandles in the central Rockies move southeast into the
northwestern Panhandles. Latest NBM illustrates outflow
boundaries from this second area of convection reaches the
southern TX Panhandle, but not much rain looks to reach the I-40
corridor by Sunday night as lapse rates and overall wind shear
remains rather anemic the further south in the TX Panhandle you
go. High temperatures on Sunday range from the lower 80s in the NW
Panhandles through lower to mid 90s in the far SE Texas
Panhandle.

Monday could be more on the quiet side overall with our weather
pattern for most of the day. A mid level disturbance under a
developing H500 ridge into the southern High Plains could see a
shower or storm, favoring the southern Texas Panhandle, especially
by Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will see the first of
many days below average for high temperatures for many locations,
over the next several days to follow. Highs on Monday will range
from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to lower and mid 80s for
the far SE TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance are illustrating a H500
ridge developing with its extent into the central Plains, with a
series of mid level disturbances traversing the central Rockies
from WSW to ENE. Data also shows a sub-tropical tie to the main
moisture transport going through the middle of the coming week
with these disturbances. Coupled with daytime heating, we could
see several chances of showers and storms. With PWAT values in
the 99th percentile and quite limited overall steering flow,
training storms with flooding potential will be watched closely as
we go mid to later this week. Overall high temperatures in the
long term forecast period will remain below average before
returning to near average by the first half of the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 06Z TAF
period. The only potential exception could be for KGUY with mVFR
cigs roughly between 09-13Z, but confidence is not high enough to
include in TAF at this time. Winds at all TAF sites will north and
northeasterly past 12Z to the end of the TAF period with winds at
5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29