618
FXUS64 KAMA 052330
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

-Scattered storms this evening across the south and southeast
Panhandles, with heavy rain being the main concern with any storm.

-Storms may return to the east on Saturday with heavy rain again
being the main concern.

-Temperatures will trend much hotter as we head into Sunday through
Wednesday, and maybe even Thursday, and we may need heat products on
certain days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A cluster of storms has developed across the southeastern TX
Panhandle this evening with additional storms trying to develop
northwest behind an outflow boundary. Storms today have been very
efficient rain producers and have produced 3+ inches of rain
according to radar estimates over Collingsworth county. A core may
be able to become strong enough to generate marginally severe hail
(quarter size) or produce a downburst upwards of 50-60 mph before
activity weakens later this evening. The main concern will be
heavy rain leading to flash flooding the rest of the night given
these storms are very slow moving. We will need to keep an eye on
additional storms across southeastern CO and northeastern NM to
see if they make it into the northwestern Panhandles this evening.
Low chances of rain have been introduced to the forecast for that
potential.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Dewpoints in the east are well in the 60s to low 70s and subtle
forcing from the system to the south tracking north towards the
southeast Panhandle will support some afternoon to evening storms.
First storm starting to go up in southern Armstrong County.  Very
high PWAT`s of 1.2-1.6 in the southeast will support intense rain
rates of 3-5" per hour with these storms, and 18z KAMA sounding
shows a pocket of dry air in the 500-600mb layer that would support
the potential for wet microbursts. As it stands shear is not that
great in the southern Panhandles and is more favorable in the
northwest, where that environment is more capped.  Overall, 30 to 40
percent chance of showers and storms along and southeast of HWY60
and east of I-27 for this afternoon.  Now the southeast Donley and
Collingsworth Counties are more in that 40 to 60 percent chance as
there`s better forcing and surface dewpoints are much higher, so a
better chance at reaching convective temperature, as well as any
additional forcing from the wave that`s tracking over our area this
evening.

Upper low is taking more of an easterly track tonight and is
expected to pull up over the eastern Panhandles tomorrow.  This will
continue to favor higher pops in the east and over into Oklahoma
v.s. our area, but will not discount any wrap around moisture
tomorrow.  By tomorrow evening cluster of storms in the east is
expected to become an MCV and eject northeast int northwestern OK
and there might be some showers/storms on the back side for the
Beaver and Lipscomb County area.  Given the high PWAT`s still in
place, the main concern with the storms tomorrow would be the heavy
rain rates.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Weak high pressure will build over the Panhandles on Sunday and
bring much warmer temperatures, but overall stable and dry
conditions.  With 850mb temps in the 27-30C range on Sunday, we will
likely see widespread 90s and maybe some areas close to 100.  Now
given recent moisture and a subtle wave tracking over the ridge axis
across the northern Panhandle on Sunday, there may be just enough
with heating and limited forcing to pop off an isolated storm or
two, but still the probability is very low, so much that we only
have about a 10 percent chance.  As we head into Monday the ridge
does attempt to expand and amplify as 500mb heights rise and 850mb
temps jump 29-32C, which will certainly bring widespread mid 90s and
some areas of lower 100s.  Areas most prone for heat products on
Monday would be the Canadian River Valley area (Boys Ranch, Fritch,
Borger, Canadian) and the Palo Duro Canyon State Park area.

Tuesday a little bit of a break down in 500 heights as a upper
trough enters the Pacific Northwest and brings more of a southwest
flow over New Mexico and the ridge axis becomes more displaced over
the Mississippi Valley.  Still very warm temperatures expected with
widespread 90s to some lower 100s, but may not be quite enough for
heat products.  We will be watching the northwest corner of the
Panhandles as a shortwave may trigger some storms off the mountains
of NM and track them into the northeastern part of NM and then the
northwest TX/OK Panhandle and into southeast CO.

Wednesday looks to be our warmest day as the southwest flow and
warmer air is well advected over our area.  850mb temps ranging from
30C-35C will support likely widespread heat highlights.  And with a
pseudo-dryline setup across the central Panhandles, as well as a
subtle wave moving across in the afternoon, models are indicating
some convection along that boundary from Amarillo to Guymon around
peak heating as we have a really good push of 700mb Theta E moisture
advected over the central Panhandles. PWAT`s are pretty good in the
1.20-1.40" range with storms that should blow up right along that
line and have little to no steering flow, supporting storms that
will just sit over the area and dump quite a bit of rain.  But still
in Day 6 so a lot can change.

Thursday is a bit tricky as we do have some models suggesting that
the hottest day will be held back a bit and that what is expected on
Wednesday may occur on Thursday.  NBM is leaning in that direction,
so current forecast does reflect that, but should the faster
solution pan out, we should be in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday
and whats interesting is that while the day should be mostly dry
there could be some return easterly flow Thursday evening that
really drives up the dewpoints and we may be looking at elevated
overnight convection across a good chunk of the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast at the terminals with this
TAF cycle. There are low chances (10 percent or less) of a storm
near KDHT or KAMA over the next few hours, but confidence is too
low to mention at this time and will amend if necessary. Outside
of storm chances or outflow boundaries from storms, the wind
should remain out of the south over the next 24 hours around 10-15
kts with occasional higher gusts. There are additional chances for
storms late in this TAF period at KAMA, but confidence is too low
to mention at this point.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05