622
FXUS64 KAMA 141733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 859 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle
  during the next 7 days.

- Weather systems may make the second half of the work week more
  active than the first half of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 859 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The southern plains continues to be under a broad trough
separating high pressure to both the east and the west of the
region. The panhandles remains in a relatively more stable section
of this broad trough with the better instability and moisture to
the south. In fact there appears to be a small branch of high
pressure that is pushing into the panhandles today. This will
bring mid level warming over the panhandles which will reduce the
available CAPE. Even if we reach the convective temperature that
could start the formation of rain showers and thunderstorms they
would struggle with the reduced CAPE. That means our chances for
rain showers and thunderstorms will be low and any that do form
will most likely be weak and short in duration. Still we cannot
fully rule out that some will form this afternoon and evening. The
conditions look largely similar for Tuesday and may in fact
become even worse for the formation of rain showers and
thunderstorms. This would be from a two fold situation where mid
level warming erodes the CAPE further and sets up a subsidence
inversion that would act as a cap. So it will be very low for
rain showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but not a zero chance.
Otherwise the temperatures will be warming over the panhandles
today and Tuesday with highs in the 80s and 90s today increasing
to solid 90s for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 859 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The pattern has a moderate to high chance of shifting during the
later portions of the work week through the weekend. This will be
mainly in the form of the Bermuda Azores high in the southeast
building slowly westward and into and then over the southern
plains. For the later portions of the work week this process will
make it more favorable for small scale weather system to round the
high pressure and pass over the panhandles. If this occurs then
these weather system will bring an uptick in the rain shower and
thunderstorm activity. For the weekend this trend reverses as the
high continues to build pushing those weather system further
westward into NM rather than the Panhandles. This doesn`t mean
there wont be any rain shower or thunderstorms for the weekend
just far less likely for most of the panhandles. The exception may
be in the far western panhandles as this area could still be
clipped by any of the weather system moving across NM. This
pattern shift will have a high chance of bringing a gradual
increase in the temperatures that has at least a low potential of
bringing triple digit heat to the panhandles.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 859 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. There is a very low chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance of these occurring is
far to low to be reflected at any of the TAF site but is not zero.
Otherwise weakly gusty south winds will be present across the
panhandles during the daytime hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98