046
FXUS64 KAMA 091106
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Dense fog is possible across the southern and southeastern Texas
  Panhandle through late this morning.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected through this upcoming
  weekend before a pattern change leads to rain chances and cooler
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Foggy conditions will be ongoing for mainly the southern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle to start the day today. The highest
potential for dense fog will remain across the southeast with fog
dissipating by mid morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for the southeast and may need to be expanded in area if the fog
increases in coverage over the current forecast. H500 ridging will
build in over the Panhandles today and tomorrow with the center
of high pressure to the south of the CWA. H850 WAA will become
apparent today and tomorrow as temperatures quickly rise into the
80s after being in the 60s to 70s the last few days. Surface low
pressure east of the Rockies will tighten the pressure gradient
across the High Plains which should lead to breezy south to
southwest winds this afternoon and once again on Friday afternoon.
Dry conditions are favored across the region due to high pressure
in place.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the weekend across
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. This will lead to dry conditions
and temperatures well above average for both Saturday and Sunday.
A strong leeside low is forecast to develop on Saturday afternoon
which will lead to gusty south to southwest winds across the
Panhandles. Green grasses and relative humidity values over 25
percent should preclude any fire weather conditions from arising.
Another breezy day is expected on Sunday, but winds are not
expected to be as strong as Saturday.

As broad troughing develops across the west late this weekend, high
pressure moves off to the east over the northern Gulf of America and
southwest flow is forecast to develop over the southern High Plains.
This pattern change will lead to cooler temperatures, albeit still
above average based on the latest NBM highs. Moisture transport in
between the high to the southeast and the low to the northwest
should be prevalent early next week and disturbances embedded in
the upper level flow may lead to showers and storms across the
Panhandles. The axis of the higher rain chances varies in the
model guidance at this time, but there certainly is a signal for
beneficial rains for portions of the southern High Plains early
next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a
small exception this morning with patchy fog around KAMA. This
bank of fog can periodically move briefly across the airfield
producing drops to IFR or less. What fog there is will rapidly
dissipate after sunrise. Currently the chances of fog impacting
KAMA is not high enough to be reflected within the TAF. Otherwise
southerly gusty winds can be expected at all terminals for the
daytime hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98