861
FXUS64 KAMA 280607
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
107 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. Dangerous 110 degree
  heat is still expected for the Palo Duro Canyon today.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue today through Friday,
  primarily in the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Hot temperatures continue in the short term, but dangerous +110
degree heat is expected to be much more limited. Highs today for
most of the area should range between 99-107 degrees. Exceptions
include Palo Duro Canyon, where extreme heat is still expected. An
Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the state park today given
the potential for temperatures to reach 110. Areas along the
Canadian River Valley may also approach 110, but recent 00Z models
suggest moisture may be just a bit too high and limit temperatures
below extreme heat criteria. Still, temperatures upwards of 109 are
possible in isolated areas of Moore and Hutchinson county near the
river valley. PoPs this evening are still focused in the NW, with a
low chance they extend further south and east. Some CAMs like the
00Z HRRR attempt to generate convection along thunderstorm outflow
in the Texas Panhandle, but overall ensemble guidance suggest this
outcome has an unlikely chance (<10%) of manifesting.

Tomorrow, highs are still on a slight downward trend. Based off
current guidance, a Heat Advisory will be more difficult to justify
for areas outside of Palo Duro Canyon. Still, widespread 100s are
expected with a few areas in the northwest still hanging onto the
upper 90s. PoPs have also seen an uptick in the northwest tomorrow
evening due to 00Z CAMs increasing thunderstorm coverage across our
CWA. Isolated to scattered storms can be expected from the early
evening to the overnight hours into Thursday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Headlines of heat and limited precipitation continue in the
extended. Upper level high pressure will slide south on Wednesday
and Thursday before finally transitioning west on Friday and the
weekend. Next week is where the upper level pattern become
interesting, since long range guidance is not keen on keeping the
ridge anchored over the Four Corners region. Models suggest there
will be an elongation of the ridge across the CONUS heading into
Monday. Zonal flow aloft appears possible if troughing becomes more
restricted. Beyond Day 7, models still have some uncertainty on the
placement of high pressure, but there are some hints that it could
set up over the eastern CONUS.

High temperatures should still slowly degrade and bottom out in the
mid to upper 90s this weekend. By next Monday, signals for more
widespread 100s return to the forecast, so relief from heat will
either be temporary or non-existant. PoPs remain in play for the
rest of the week. If northwest flow is to be cut off and replaced by
zonal flow, much drier conditions can be expected for next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
There is currently high based rain showers and thunderstorms in the
northwestern panhandles. These have a low chance of impacting KDHT
and thus are reflected in the TAF. These will most likely dissipate
by the mid morning hours. Then later this afternoon a more extensive
area of thunderstorms moves across much of the northwestern
panhandles. This round of thunderstorms has a low chance of impacting
both KDHT and KGUY with it being reflected in the TAFs. There is a
very low chance for the storms to extend to KAMA thus it is not
reflected in the TAF. All the thunderstorms are have a low chance of
causing MVFR or worse conditions mainly centered around rain reduced
visibility. Lastly it remains very hot across the panhandles leading
to increased density altitude at all terminals.

98

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-
     007>020.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98