Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
887 FXUS64 KAMA 130501 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles in multiple rounds stretching from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon - Breezy conditions set to return Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cold front is moving into the northern Panhandles at this time with the cooler air lagging slightly behind. The front is expected to push into the Panhandles through the night as a subtle/weak shortwave trough moves up from west Texas. This, along with favorable theta-e advection, should force some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight across the southern/central Texas Panhandle and move north. Meanwhile, operational guidance in fairly good agreement that the front will end up in a southwest- northeast orientation by 7 AM Monday, from the southwest TX Panhandle to the NE Texas Panhandle. However, solutions diverge afterwards regarding how much additional additional progression there will be through the remainder of the morning hours. Regardless, the operational global models and CAMs all indicate that the front will stall if not retreat some in the afternoon hours. Expecting some mid-level forcing to arrive in the late afternoon hours as well as a surge of higher 700mb theta-e values, possibly resulting in another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity is favored to continue through the night and Tuesday morning, with some guidance suggesting that showers continue into Tuesday afternoon across the central Panhandles. Rainfall totals are most likely to stay between 0.05" and 0.30" with around a 30-40% chance for totals to exceed 0.30" which is focused on the western and central Texas Panhandle. If there are thunderstorms and/or training bands of light to moderate rain, as several CAMs suggest as a possibility, cannot rule out a localized total of around 1". Rain will most likely come to an end by the evening hours and temperatures are expected to drop into the 50s for Tuesday night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A large trough will be present over the Western US to start the long- term period with a ridge extending from the Southern US through the Midwest. The trough is expected to begin to eject northeastward on Wednesday, and a surface low will deepen in eastern Colorado resulting in a steepening of the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles. Anticipating 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds across most of the area with gusts between 25-35 mph. Winds will weaken some Wednesday night before re-strengthening to 15-25 mph during the day Thursday. Not expecting fire weather concerns given minimum relative humidity values are forecast to be in the 30-45% range on both days. A cold front is favored to move in Thursday night with cooler temperatures returning to the area for Friday and into the weekend. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Sporadic rain showers will be possible at KGUY later this morning and at KAMA this afternoon. While we can`t rule out a brief thunderstorm, confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, a cold front will move through all terminals tonight and some briefly breezy winds are anticipated at KDHT behind the front. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52