456
FXUS63 KAPX 240630
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
230 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Quiet and overall dry weather continues today.

-Active weather pattern returns showers and storm chances at times
this weekend through early next week.

-High pressure returns midweek next week. No active weather is
expected next Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A weak split flow pattern begins to set up today with low
amplitude troughing across the Arctic Circle while broad ridging
continues to occupy the southern U.S. Pleasant summertime
conditions will persist today as surface high pressure over the
Northeast supports sunny skies and precipitation free conditions.


Conditions turn more active this weekend for the Great Lakes region
as the aforementioned 500mb trough begins to deepen, developing
closed low pressure over Hudson Bay and extending the trough axis
into the Upper Midwest. A surface clipper progresses along the 60th
parallel and drags a frontal boundary across Canada`s Southern
Provinces this Saturday while weakening. A few showers will likely
be observed mainly across Michigans Upper Peninsula, but
little QPF is expected. The best chance of widespread
precipitation remains on Monday as another surface low digs
across the Great Lakes Region. Latest guidance continues to
increase probabilities of QPF, along with the potential for
some stronger embedded storms developing due to increasing
afternoon instability and favorable lapse rates building across
the region.

Forecast Details:

Today through Sunday: Conditions remain pretty benign today as
high pressure is positioned directly overhead. Subsidence aloft
will continue sunny skies, calm winds, and highs in the upper
70s/low 80s for most locations. Only chance of rain this weekend
remains on Saturday as a surface low develops over Northern
Alberta while an attached front drags across the southern
Canadian provinces. This frontal passage will weaken with time,
delivering light amounts of moisture to the U.S./Canadian
Border. Only Eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt is expected
to observe measurable rainfall Saturday afternoon and evening.
Chippewa and Mackinac counties can expect a tenth of an inch or
less while localized areas south of the Bridge will only observe
a trace. Sunday will likely remain dry, but with an approaching
shortwave combined with some lingering low level moisture, one
or two showers remain possible.

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave troughing currently over the Canadian
West Coast progresses eastward this weekend. Surface low pressure
develops Lee of the Rockies and digs across Lake Michigan this
Monday. Latest guidance depicts moderate instability building in the
afternoon, PWATs are climatologically high, and CAPE profiles
support a round of showers with embedded convection. Best location
for active weather remains southwest of the CWA as SPC places the
southern Michigan/Chicago Region in a day 4 outlook, but some
stronger storms could still produce localized heavy rainfall and
potential severe weather. The highest probabilities of QPF remain
between a quarter to half an inch.

Wednesday and Thursday Outlook: Surface high pressure appears to
build on the backside of this system as it heads downstream,
returning sunny skies and dry weather through the end of the
forecast period. Subsequent cold air advection will drop dew points
and temperatures by Wednesday, resulting in highs in the mid 70s to
near 80s Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mainly VFR. Hazy skies aloft, and some patchy cirrus. Would not
rule out some fog overnight, mainly MBL. Chance is smaller than
last night, with somewhat drier air in place. Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ