343
FXUS63 KAPX 280000
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

- Low-end shower chances linger late week, with plenty of dry time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The quiet weather pattern continues through the first half of
the week, though a decaying shortwave will bring some increase
in cloud cover later today into tonight. Otherwise, today will
remain dry with plenty of sunshine, while the additional clouds
tonight should help keep temperatures from falling quite as much
as recent nights. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with some
colder interior spots potentially dipping into the upper 30s.
The added cloud cover should also help limit the coverage of fog
tonight into Monday morning.

The surface high gradually shifts away Monday into Tuesday,
allowing return flow to develop and temperatures to warm. Expect
mostly sunny skies and a continued warming trend, with highs
reaching the 70s both days and some locations potentially
pushing into the upper 70s by Tuesday. Despite the warmer
afternoons, the dry airmass will continue to support fairly cool
overnight temperatures, generally in the 40s. Overall,
conditions look dry and quiet through Tuesday.

A change in the pattern arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday as
a northern-stream wave moves through the Great Lakes and begins
to pull deeper moisture farther north. Shower chances will
increase Tuesday night/ Wednesday (especially Wednesday night),
but there remains uncertainty in how much precipitation actually
reaches northern Michigan with very dry air already in place.
The timing and eventual track of the wave will be important in
determining how much of a push this system makes into the
region. With the wave currently still favored to pass during the
nighttime and relatively dry air still in place, rainfall may
be limited, with more meaningful amounts likely dependent on any
convective enhancement.

Through the latter half of the week, the active precipitation
corridor to our south may gradually lift northward, keeping at
least low-end shower chances in the forecast, particularly
across southern portions of the area. There should still be
plenty of dry time, and forecast trends could continue to shift
wetter or drier depending on how far north the moisture and
forcing associated with the southern system can get.
Temperatures will trend cooler following the midweek wave, with
highs settling back into the 60s toward the end of the week and
overnight lows generally in the 40s or slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of northern Michigan through
the issuance period. Patchy shallow FG/BR will be possible once
again later tonight/Monday morning, but most areas will not see any
VSBY reductions. Most likely TAF site to see any impacts will be
MBL, but potential is still relatively low for prolonged significant
VSBY restrictions. Any FG/BR will dissipate quickly Monday morning,
leaving VFR conditions in place across the area into the
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC