812
FXUS63 KAPX 121709
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers/storms thru this evening. Marginal severe
  risk this afternoon/early evening in our southeast.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend, especially Saturday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Cluster of showers/storms moving across nw lower MI, pretty
steady in intensity (after weakening coming off of ne WI earlier
this morning). Bring with area across our southern zones this
morning, eventually exiting towards northern Saginaw Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Reasonably fast wnw-flow aloft continues overhead for a few more
days, at least until a upper ridge tries to build toward the western
lakes this weekend. The primary frontal zone has settled well to our
south, associated with the MCS track from the southern lakes to mid-
Atlantic states. But a secondary instability axis is reforming
further north, noting that spotty deep convection is ongoing in
central/northern WI. A secondary surface trof/front is also drifting
southward across MI today.

Today/tonight...some morning fog/lower clouds remains possible,
especially in the south, where the BL is more moist. This will again
erode fairly quickly this morning. Strong diurnal heating will boost
instability, which will also be highest in the south. Recent HRRR
runs take MlCape values to just above 1k j/kg south of M-72. There
will be opportunities for localized low-level moisture pooling just
ahead of lake breeze boundaries. Speaking of which, that is our
clear initial trigger source today. Certainly a chance for fire
something as far north as inland from APN/Rogers, where lake breezes
converge from two different directions. However, the best for
stronger storms will be further south, where initiation feels a
little less certain. But we managed reasonable coverage of
showers/storms Monday se of the office, in another boundary-poor
environment. We just need to pop a couple of outflow boundaries to
breed new convective cells.

So, will be increasing pops over guidance this afternoon and
evening. Low level winds are negligible, and 0-1km bulk shear is as
well. But 0-6km bulk shear values are 40-50kt, thanks to fast mid-
level flow. So some potential for upscale growth and storm
organization, especially in the south with richer instability. Any
severe storms would pose a wind and maybe hail threat. SPC has
shrunk/reoriented the marginal SVR risk to just our se zones, and
this makes perfect sense to me. After late evening, will have little
precip, but some fog again possible (especially where it rains later
today).

Thursday and beyond...high pressure building se from central Canada
will shove the frontal zone further south. Developing ne low-level
flow will bring in cooler/drier/more stable air. After maybe a stray
shower or two Thursday, dry wx is expected Thu night thru Fri night.
After that, the high heads east and return flow kicks in. Shower/
storm chances look to return over the weekend, with at least an
outside chance for healthy rainfall, centered for now on Saturday
night. Dry and cool northerly flow for Monday, before becoming
unsettled again after. Max temps mid 70s to lower 80s for the next
several days, a little cooler Sunday and beyond. Note that models
have trended a little milder for the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A few SHRA/TSRA possible, though not confident in direct impacts to
taf sites and have carried VCSH/VCTS. Best chance for TS likely APN
and points south toward OSC/Y31. Think we could have a similar
idea to last night; that is, fog likely esp at MBL toward HTL
but could see fog and IFR/LIFR cigs and/or visbys at any site
that gets rain this afternoon. Also not impossible another
cluster of TS could drift toward MBL late tonight/Thurs AM but
not confident in this attm. Winds generally light/vrb with
lake/land breezes but could be gustier with storms.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...FEF