441
FXUS63 KAPX 141818
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming windy and wet tonight into Tuesday

- Seasonable temperatures with a few shower chances mid to late
week, heaviest rain focused south

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Fast moving upper flow across the northern tier of the CONUS with
Pacific NW shortwave energy ejecting into the upper Midwest, as a
transitory upper ridge amplifies over the Great Lakes.  This will
result in northward push of warm, moist air into our area tonight
into Tuesday. The shortwave will shear out as it pushes toward James
Bay, dragging a cold front across the area. This boundary will stall
out to our south for the mid to late week period, with additional
shortwaves bringing precipitation chances, focused mainly to our
south.

Moisture increases quickly tonight along the slow moving frontal
boundary to our west.  The best forcing, upper divergence and
deepest moisture puts the heaviest rain potential from upper
Michigan southwest into parts of Wisconsin. Full saturation on
forecast soundings becomes a question mark as you head further
south, as they show a wedge of drier air below 850mb. The heaviest
rain in our area will likely fall over eastern upper Michigan and
the Tip of the Mitt, where totals of 0.50" to 1.00" will be
possible. Further south, rainfall amounts will drop off, with some
areas only seeing 0.25" to 0.50". Tuesday will start wet, with
diminishing showers as the day progresses, as drier air begins
to push into the area from the west. It will be breezy, as we
partially mix down 35kt winds at the top of the boundary layer.
Expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph over interior areas with some
isolated 40+ mph gusts possible over coastal areas.

For the middle/end of the week, additional shortwave energy will
ride along that quasi-stationary boundary to our south.  This will
keep most of the precipitation chances south of us, with lesser
shower chances over northern Michigan.  There are some signals for a
potentially stronger shortwave to eject out of the western trough
and move toward the Great Lakes over the weekend or early next week,
which could bring better chances of rain. Temperatures fairly close
to normal for mid September, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
and lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A very nice VFR afternoon will deteriorate overnight as cloud ceilings
lower from west to east during the evening...and rain overspreads
northern Michigan around and after midnight. Expect MVFR visibilities
initially as ceilings should remain high initially...but then come
crashing down to IFR/low end MVFR after 0800Z. Expect IFR/ low end
MVFR conditions to prevail through Tuesday morning. High pressure
centered over Lower Michigan this afternoon will give way this
evening...with increasing southeast/south boundary layer flow
developing. Mechanical/turbulent mixing should allow for some
gustiness to develop overnight (20-30kts)...but somewhat stable
boundary layer will set up low level wind shear starting this evening
at all terminals as a southwesterly low level jet takes aim. Will
carry LLWS most of the night but as turbulent mixing develops this
should mitigate the impacts of the shear and distribute momentum a
bit more "evenly".

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for MIZ016-018-020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088-
     095-096-098-099.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LHZ345.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ346>349.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JPB