


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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848 FXUS63 KAPX 161950 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers tonight...spotty at first but increasing chances overnight. - Shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday...possible stronger storms. - Heavy rainfall threat Wednesday? - First significant heat of the summer early next week? && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features broadly zonal flow across the northern tier of states...downstream of a trough axis off the west coast. Broad ridge over the southwestern U.S./southern Plains with an elongated trough axis moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A couple of short wave troughs within the northern tier zonal flow...one crossing Lower Michigan this afternoon showing up nicely in water vapor imagery...a second better defined wave (and perhaps convectively enhanced) over the Dakotas/ Nebraska. Also a remnant MCV over southeast Wisconsin. Visible imagery also hints at a southeastward propagating gravity wave over northern Ontario and extending back into northern Lower. There is a fair bit of humidity working its way back into the upper Great Lakes this afternoon. At the surface...ridge of high pressure extends west from New England into the Great Lakes...with a weakly organized area of low pressure over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Small stub of a warm front lies across South Dakota/Iowa...with a poorly defined boundary along the Ohio River. Farther to the north an east- west oriented front runs across far northern Ontario into Manitoba. Northern Plains short wave trough is forecast to cross Lake Superior/Upper Michigan during the first half of Tuesday...along with a compact surface reflection (already 2-3mb/3h pressure falls across the eastern Dakotas coincident with a 1006mb low center). While the surface low is expected to propagate away from Lake Superior...it will drag a weakening cold front across Michigan Tuesday afternoon. Primary Forecast Concerns: Showers late afternoon/early evening: Passing gravity wave front kicked off some scattered showers as is passed through fairly quickly during the late morning/early afternoon across eastern Upper and the Straits region. Cu field has been bubbling up across northwest Lower...instability as expected is pretty thin at just a few hundred J/kg. So remains to be seen whether short wave trough emerging out over Lake Michigan can kick off any showers...or will subsidence behind gravity wave squash any minimal potential (as would be suggested by mid cloud clearing in its wake). But moisture will continue to increase from the west this evening ahead of the approaching surface low that is expected to be over central Lake Superior by Tuesday morning with its trailing cold front back across eastern Wisconsin. Would expect remnants of convection over the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon to get pushed into northern Michigan overnight...in addition to any scattered convection that develops ahead of it along advancing moisture axis. Shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday...possible stronger storms: Would expect rain to be ongoing Tuesday morning especially east of the US-131 corridor. Cold front arrives during the afternoon and with it a decent axis of instability (likely > 1000J/kg MLCAPE). If this comes to fruition could be some sneaky stronger storms with the front and will mention this possibility in the afternoon Hazardous Weather Outlook despite only being in the General SPC Day 2 outlook. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Days 2-3 (Wednesday-Thursday): Tuesday`s cold front looks like it will stall across southern Michigan...along which a frontal wave will ripple northeast and across Lower Michigan probably Wednesday night. Exactly how the surface pattern will evolve is a bit unknown as model latent heat release is likely playing around with the model surface pressure pattern. But a good bit of moisture in play along and north of this front...along with potentially favorable jet dynamics is setting up the possibility for heavy rainfall across the forecast area for Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2+ inches could be in play for some areas depending on how the details set up. But something else to add to the afternoon HWO (most of Michigan in the Marginal WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook). Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday): Drying trend for Friday as 594+DM 500mb ridge expands eastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the southeastern U.S.. Northward moving frontal boundary associated with this warmer air mass expected to push across the upper Lakes Saturday and will likely bring another round of showers/ thunderstorms with it. Days 6-7 Outlook (Sunday-Monday): CPC 6-10 Day outlook looking pretty toasty as 594DM heights build into northern Michigan (a +2 to +3 sigma 500mb standardized height anomaly). As long as we are far enough south of potential MCS "ridge runners" which is always our bugaboo for much hyped heat events...the first round of 90+ degree heat is certainly in play heading into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 KTVC will likely see a lake breeze development this afternoon resulting in winds quickly steering to the north before flow turns southeast tonight. Some instability develops late overnight across the region, resulting in some gusty winds with chances of showers Tuesday morning. Most areas likely remain VFR, but low level cloud development this Tuesday along with a few chances of thunder development could lower CIGs to MVFR conditions, especially near KCIU. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...SJC