869
FXUS63 KAPX 281735
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
135 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and breezy today, resulting in dangerous swimming
  conditions along portions of the shoreline.

- Holding dry through at least Thursday. Next rain chances
  return Friday.

- Following a couple pleasant and seasonable days, increases in
  humidity and temperature (slightly above normal) build
  Thursday and especially Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Northwest flow regime remains entrenched across the Great Lakes and
upper Midwest as a robust thermal ridge remains anchored over the
spine of the Rockies, and troughing holds over northern Quebec into
the Canadian maritimes. Result will be the continuity of progressive
flow across the region, bringing quick-hitting periods of shortwave
trough passages mixed in with height rises and surface high pressure
passing over the region, though this status quo may face some
alteration by the conclusion of the forecast period.

Current short-term trend showcases yesterday`s shortwave trough has
been forced south and east into the eastern Great Lakes, with
closing off surface low pressure anchored just north of Lake Ontario
and southwest into northeast Ohio. Attendant cold frontal boundary
stretches from roughly Toronto south and west through Cleveland and
into Indianapolis, with cooler and drier air moving into the upper
Great Lakes, courtesy of an area of surface high pressure and 500mb
height rises, which will lead to a strong subsidence inversion
building. Drier air aloft will mix to the surface through the day
today, eventually scouring out ongoing low level cloud cover.
Surface high pressure moves overhead into tonight, bringing about
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity to the region through
Thursday. Backside return flow manifests by Friday ahead of the next
progged shortwave trough passage, which should also coincide with
the next rain chances across the region. At this juncture, potential
for severe storms looks quite murky given the uncertainty regarding
timing of the feature`s passage. Will have to watch how this
particular shortwave is forced, as current guidance trends toward
the ongoing closing-off system over the northeast CONUS to cut off
and stall over New England, which may turn our upper flow northerly,
and lead to a chain reaction blocking pattern either by the end of
or just beyond the forecast period.

Details:

Seasonable and dry through at least Thursday: High pressure
intruding coinciding with 500mb height rises should scour out
moisture and bring a comfortable, seasonable airmass to the region
through at least Thursday, perhaps even most of Friday pending the
passage of the next shortwave. Anticipating a relatively longer run
of little changing weather conditions in comparison to the observed
summer thus far. Result will be sunnier days across the region with
highs in the 70s and 80s both today and Wednesday amid a much less
humid airmass. This will allow overnight lows to dip into the upper
40s and mid 50s across the interior through Wednesday night, with
the coasts holding near 60 degrees. Plume of higher dewpoints creeps
in by Thursday, leading to a subtle uptick in humidity, though a
lack of synoptic forcing should put a cap on any convection.
Southerly flow builds by Friday, bringing even more humid air and
warmer temperatures ahead of the next approaching system. Highs
Thursday and Friday peak into the 80-87 degree range, with
overnight lows generally 55 to 65+ across the board.

Next Rain Chances: Aforementioned next system builds into the upper
Midwest come Friday, and should approach the Great Lakes by Friday
night. Lots of mixed signals with this system considering unknown
evolution of the system currently over the eastern Lakes into the
St. Lawrence River Valley. In the event that this ongoing system to
our east closes off and forces a southerly dig of longwave troughing
just to our east, this may veer our upper flow more northerly. In
the event this trend is realized, the next system may deliver
nothing much more than a glancing blow to the region, as opposed to
passing right overhead. As such, will be hesitant to go with much
more than scattered shower and storm activity Friday into Friday
night, because in the event this does occur, deeper moisture plume
will be suppressed away from the region and rain chances will
be confined to our south for the time being. The other caveat
this presents is that the progressive flow regime we have been
entrenched in for months now may take a backseat to potential
blocking in the mid levels... especially considering the jet
stream will essentially be riding north of the US / Canada
border, thus limiting any meaningful synoptic mechanisms to
force and cutoff systems out of any given area. Certainly
something to watch going forward, with non-zero potential for
longer lasting, block-dominant weather trends to manifest by the
end of or just beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Primarily VFR with some lingering MVFR clouds possible, esp for APN
this afternoon, though expect these should fade this afternoon.
(Could perk back up around 20-24z.) Have concerns for some patchy
fog overnight, esp in areas that saw rain yesterday...have hinted at
this idea in the tafs, though not a certainty, esp if winds end up a
little too strong. N winds generally 10-15kts, could gust 15-20kts,
through rest of the afternoon; should slowly drop back to 5-10kts
overnight which could allow for some land breezes/onshore flow (esp
TVC). Winds likely to diminish further Wednesday as high pressure
moves overhead.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ030-
     031-036.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...FEF