656
FXUS63 KAPX 301822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog tonight, few showers this weekend with slowly
  moderating temps.

- Milder early to mid next week with increasing rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc high pressure slowly drifts over northern Michigan this evening
in wake of cold advection, repositioning just to the east by
Saturday morning. Temperatures drop into the mid 20s to low 30s most
areas as a result. Not a huge signal for fog tonight, but not
impossible given the sfc pattern and some progged soundings. Thus
there could be some patches over the interior, river valleys, and
notorious foggy spots. Otherwise, sfc high continues to shift east
with subtle energy embedded within the west to east flow aloft this
weekend. Warm advection and better moisture flux later Saturday into
early Sunday will likely result in few to scattered showers across
the area, but likely not amounting to much overall (<0.10" for
many). Temperatures steadily warm a few degrees each day through
this weekend.

The focus for the weather over the next week or so will be the early
to mid next week time frame. A huge trough, with plenty of individual
pieces of energy, dives into the Intermountain West/West coast. This
feature will shift east with time into mid next week and as you`d
expect, a potent sfc low pressure system will develop across the
middle portions of the country. The question becomes, how do the
chaotic pieces of energy interact and thus where does the low
pressure system track/best upper lift reside, and what this all
means for northern Michigan. Well, at this time, it looks like the
Upper Midwest is the favored area for a first/parent low pressure
system to track mid next week based on the current ensembles, with a
secondary area of low pressure system possibly tracking across the
Mississippi Valley. Cannot stress enough how convoluted this pattern
looks aloft, but it does appear northern Michigan will get in on at
least some rain. Current ensemble means show the potential for a
healthy rain (0.5" to 1.0") of rain across the area, but the exact
interaction of these features will change this forecast for the
later Monday-ish to Wednesday-ish time. There could be multiple
rounds of rain as well, or perhaps not much rain early in the week
and more mid week. So a lot to iron out in the coming days. Not much
sensible weather outside of the rain next week except for breezy
conditions at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR/marginally VFR with lake effect cigs of SCT-BKN at 3 to 5
kft. NW winds of 5 to 10kts with occasional G15kts will continue
through 23z. Winds will become calm overnight. Chances for FG/BR
impacts near KAPN/KCIU exist from 08z through 12z. Best chances
for impacts is near KAPN, however FG/BR may remain patchy enough
to not impact terminal direct but remain in the vicinity. S/SE
winds AOB 8kts with no vis and cig impacts after 12z through
the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD