192
FXUS63 KAPX 302335
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
735 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradually warming temperatures through the remainder of the
  holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return midweek with another shot of cooler temperatures
  expected Thursday - Friday (along with continued showery
  conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level troughing continues to shift
well off to the east this afternoon with rising heights over the
western Great Lakes. Upstream ridging makes headway into the
northern Plains tonight and across our area on Sunday. At the
surface, ~1025mb high pressure remains squarely overhead through the
short term forecast period.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
for the vast majority of the short term forecast period. Mainly
clear skies should continue right on through tonight with winds
becoming calm once again after sunset. Another decent radiational
cooling night ahead with lows largely falling into the 40s, with
patchy to areas of fog likely to develop once again. That said, do
think there`ll be another shot at some localized/patchy frost with
low temps falling into the mid-upper 30s, primarily across the
typically colder spots of interior northern lower (Grayling,
Roscommon, Atlanta, Mio, etc.), but that threat not expected to
be widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory tonight.

Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm a handful of degrees
over today with highs in the mid-upper 70s for most. Cu field
expected to blossom Sunday and while chances are very low, there`s
some hints that an isolated shower/storm could develop along inland
penetrating lake breezes during the afternoon hours. Probabilities
for this are largely < 15%, so will refrain from explicitly
mentioning in the forecast at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Pattern Forecast: High pressure is expected to remain in control
through the remainder of the holiday weekend while slowly sliding
toward the eastern seaboard by Tuesday night. Focus for the long
term largely revolves around Tuesday night and beyond as closed
upper-level low pressure dives southeast of Canada. Attendant area
of sfc low pressure expected to be situated well off to the north in
northern Quebec/Nunavut by Tuesday night with an elongated cold
front draped all to the back into the northern Plains. This boundary
expected to propel southeast into the northern Great Lakes on
Wednesday with additional sfc low pressure development along
it. As a result, increasingly active weather expected through
the midweek time frame, with another shot of cooler temperatures
and potentially showery weather prevailing Thursday through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast Details: Continued mainly quiet weather conditions are
expected Sunday night through Tuesday with daytime highs in the mid-
70s to near 80 degrees area-wide. Once again, non-zero chances for
an afternoon lake-breeze driven shower/storm both Monday and
Tuesday, but chances far too low to deviate from an otherwise dry
forecast.

Shower chances begin to increase as early as Tuesday night with
higher probabilities for more widespread showers Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. Another shot of cooler temperatures expected on
the backside of this system with latest trends suggesting
temperatures struggle to get out the 50s during the day Thursday
(couple of degrees warmer Friday). Lingering wrap around moisture
and a favorable over-water thermal gradient should yield continued
showery conditions Thursday into Friday, especially downwind of the
big lakes. Throw in occasionally breezy northwest winds, and it`s
sure to feel like a couple of true fall days across much of northern
Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals to begin the period. Winds AOB
10kts with a lake breeze component for most terminals. Winds
will diminish to VRB (with some coastal terminals seeing a land
breeze component after 02Z). High chances for FG/BR, with the
window from 06Z thru 14Z. KCIU/KMBL/KPLN have the highest
chances for IFR/LIFR reductions in cigs and vis, while low
chances for these conditions exist at KTVC/KAPN. FG/BR should
lift and scatter after 14Z, returning all terminals to VFR
conditions. Winds will be AOB 13kts and lake breeze driven from
16Z thru the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD