623
FXUS63 KAPX 101752
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bit cooler today with plenty of sunshine

- Return to above normal temperatures to end this week

- Next chance for showers arrives Saturday, then especially again
early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Broad mid/upper level troughing across the Great Lakes early this
morning, part of rather aggressive northern stream flow on north
side of elongated southern Conus upper level ridge/heat dome.
Stalled baroclinic axis well to our south across the lower Ohio
Valley...the eastern extent of an active thermal gradient extending
from deep low pressure vicinity James Bay. Large area of slow east
moving high pressure dominating our surface conditions, bringing
with it partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and dropping
temperatures to more normal levels in the 50s to lower 60s.

Northern Conus flow regime will continue to remain quite progressive
through this weekend right into next week. This will bring a fairly
typical early fall weather pattern to northern Michigan, with dry
weather interrupted at times by passing waves and their attendant
showers.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing those occasional shower concerns
through the entirety of the forecast period.

Details:

Not much too talk about today through Friday as high pressure
continues to remain in control, bringing with it mostly sunny/clear
skies. Despite this sun, temperatures today will cool to more normal
mid-September readings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Should have
about ideal conditions for a good nocturnal temperature response
tonight with those clear skies and winds that go light to calm.
Easily expect most of our colder interior locations to dip down into
the 40s. Wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see some of our ice-box
locations within the Au Sable River valley make a run into the upper
30s. Simple airmass modification and developing southwest return
flow under those still mostly sunny skies will help temperatures
recover quickly on Friday, with highs well back up into the 70s.

Strong shortwave trough passing well to our north looks to drag our
next cold front through the area Saturday. Best forcing along this
front passes well to our north, and deepest tropical moisture feed
remains tied up with that Ohio Valley baroclinic axis. Expect a few
progressive moving showers to fire across our area on Saturday (best
chance likely remaining north of the Big Bridge), but definitely not
expecting anything significant.

At least some evidence our weather may turn a bit more active later
Sunday into early next work week as next wave rotates up through the
northern Lakes into southern Canada. Nice axis of Pacific moisture
expected to accompany this wave, with more Gulf of America moisture
influx as well as deep southerly flow propels north into the region.
System could be a decent rain-maker for some areas across the
region, with initial moisture-rich isentropic upglide yielding to
rather impressive cold frontal dynamics. Just something to monitor
as we head into early next week.

Exact temperature trends this weekend into next week will be highly
dependent on those cloud and shower trends. With that said, not
seeing any evidence of any significant bouts of excessive warmth or
cold...expecting temperatures to fall well within the range of what
is considered normal heading through the middle of September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the issuance period.
Some gusty west/northwest winds this afternoon will subside this
evening, eventually going weak/calm overnight. Patchy FG/BR may
develop overnight, but may be confined to interior low-lying areas
and confidence is not high enough at the current time to include in
specific TAF locations.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>348.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...DJC