717
FXUS63 KAPX 161043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm with periods of showers/storms through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge axis over the central US...stretching from Manitoba to
New Mexico...with southwest flow across the western US aiding in
eastward advection of elevated mixed layers into the Plains (even
Upper Midwest). Disorganized troughing hangs on over the MS Valley
into the eastern US to our south...with the OH Valley still
remaining a boundary between very moist air (pwats greater than
1.5in) and less moist air, as return flow remains quite persistent
across the Gulf Coast...though some of the moisture is sneaking up
into the northern Plains and Manitoba. Here in the Northwoods...we
remain between a couple weak surface fronts...but high pressure over
Ontario remains persistent...with continued low-level easterly flow
reinforcing the dry air mass across northeast Lower MI and the EUP.

Expect upstream system to begin to organize to our west
Monday...with increasing return flow allowing for increasingly warm
and moist air to enter the region...leading to some potential for
showers and storms, though the more organized activity should remain
upstream from us. Actual surface low itself should remain to our
northwest through Monday night...tracking just north of Lake
Superior going into Tuesday...dragging a boundary into the region
with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another
shortwave crossing the western/central US will aid in development of
another surface low along this same boundary going into
Wednesday...with this system tracking through the Great Lakes region
for midweek, keeping things active. By late week...ridging looks to
build in from the west as sharp troughing digs into the western
US...ultimately resulting in potential for unsettled, and perhaps
warmer, weather to continue into the upcoming weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Temperature trends...Incoming air mass should be a little warmer
than yesterday`s, supporting highs reaching into the lower 80s
across most of the area. Cloud cover across the eastern UP/Tip of
the Mitt should lead to a bit cooler temps up that way...and do
think mid clouds moving into the region will, similar to yesterday,
be enough to keep temps a few degrees cooler than we might be with
maximum insolation. However...if we do end up mixing more deeply
and/or getting more clear skies than expected (most likely across NE
Lower and toward Saginaw Bay), some locations could crack the mid
80s for highs.

Shower/storm potential...while moisture/warmth should be on the
increase overall...still think high pressure and low-level easterly
flow will be clinging to our area enough to keep unsettled weather
at bay...or at least, limited, into the start of the work week. Air
mass yesterday, per 00z sounding, was rather dry and well-mixed
through 800mb...and think we will be tapping into this environment
more than a moist one, which has potential to limit the amount of
afternoon activity we end up getting...particularly if we remain
cloudy enough to keep us from realizing maximum diurnal heating.
Weak flow over much of northern Lower suggests development of lake
breezes during the afternoon, which could serve as a focus for some
popcorn storms to try to pop...though again...still question how
much instability will be present to do so...unless we end up
moistening up far more aggressively than expected. Think our better
chance for activity may be tonight into Tuesday morning, depending
on any development upstream.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Primary forecast concerns into next weekend:

Shower/storm potential through the week...A fair bit of uncertainty
attm in the timing/position of the cold front Tuesday, which lends
some concerns for us. Faster progression, with the front more
or less over us to start the day, could keep temps down and punt
the best chances for afternoon redevelopment across southern
Lower MI. Slower progression could leave us much warmer Tuesday
and open us up for better destabilization and increase potential
for activity to develop either overhead or move in from the
west. Still have concerns in the back of my mind that the focus
for better shower/storm development ends up sticking to our
north, perhaps scraping the Yoop, as the boundary stretches out
over us through the day. Winds do look a smidgen better by
Tuesday...which could indicate a boost in shear and better
potential for storm organization...though it remains unclear if
we will be warm/moist enough to overcome potential capping in
the mid-levels. Not a clear forecast by any means.

Wednesday, attm, appears more interesting...as an upper low induces
a wave along the lingering boundary, which should track up toward
us. Increasing synoptic lift with a potentially more well-defined
system, combined with an increase in deep moisture, suggests a
better shot at widespread precip along/north of the lingering
boundary. Currently, some part of northern Michigan appears to be in
a favorable position for best co-location of forcing and deep
moisture, which leaves a threat of heavy rain in play for
Wednesday...though still unclear where the axis of heaviest rainfall
will end up...with rainfall totals of at least an inch possible
somewhere across the area when all is said and done Wednesday. Winds
with this system should be a little better as well, suggesting
better shear, suggesting a better shot at severe weather, though for
now...think the best chance of this looks to stay to our south, but
it will be close enough to warrant keeping an eye on things.

Late week...as ridge rebuilds to our west...will need to keep an eye
out for additional activity to develop upstream and perhaps track
into the region. Winds are a little better with this latter system,
which should be more favorable for convective development than what
we`ve been experiencing recently. SW flow also suggests a much
better shot at instability/elevated mixed layers slipping into the
upper Midwest...which bears watching for both organized convection
as well as heavy rain potential. (This idea also decreases certainty
in potential for warm temps again late week...as convection could
keep us from realizing maximum diurnal heating yet again.)

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR. Some decaying showers/storms will try to push into eastern
upper MI late tonight, but better chances for rain will reach
CIU/perhaps PLN after 12Z. Today, just some cu and patchy mid
clouds, with an isolated shower possible. Light, mostly
southerly breezes today/tonight. The breeze should be enough to
prevent fog tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ