395
FXUS63 KAPX 011855
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
155 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue Monday, with temperatures
warming into the 60s and 70s

- An initial wave of widespread light to moderate rain moves through
Tuesday, with intermittent chances lingering through the end of the
work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Current advected layer PWAT imagery shows the deep sub tropical
moisture plume flowing over the Desert SW, leading to widespread
heavy rain and flooding there. At the same time, surface high
pressure over the mid Atlantic is seeping south and beginning to
surge lower level Gulf moisture northward into the central plains.
In the upper levels, a long wave trough continues to deepen
southward over the western US, which will amplify the pattern over
the next several hours. Broad upper troughing exists over the
central and eastern US with an embedded shortwave under the ridging,
weakening as is continues east. Cloud cover will continue to move in
this evening and tonight, which should limit fog development in most
spots. Far southeast Chippewa county could see less cloud cover,
resulting in a stronger surface inversion as warmer lake waters
persist - leading to the best fog chances tonight.

By Monday morning, the positive to neutrally tilted long wave
troughing will reach the crest of the Rockies. A secondary piece of
energy over the CAN/US border will keep this long wave troughing
larger and curved. An upper jet streak rounding the base and
extending into the central plains will work to enhance lee
cyclogenesis over NE/SD. The secondary piece of upper energy will
deepen and support this northern surface cyclone as it tracks
towards MN Monday, while the long wave troughing still extends down
to TX. Surface pressure falls will be seen on Monday over northern
MI as the cyclone to the west deepens and reaches MN by late in the
day. South winds will gradually become breezy by the late afternoon
for northern MI, with mostly overcast skies. Temperatures will warm
into the 60s, with the surface warm front lifting through the area
Monday evening. Mild overnight temperatures will be seen as the rain
shield associated with the cyclone approaches Lk MI`s eastern
shores. There is increasing confidence that deep moisture will be
present in the central to northern plains, thanks to the sub
tropical plume of mid to upper level moisture meeting the lower
level Gulf moisture. PWATs of 1.3 to 1.7" are within the most likely
solution space for this plume, which the HREF takes as far north as
WI by late Monday. This evident WAA will bring a LLJ of 30 to 40kts
around 2 to 4 kft over MI by early Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest
winds will be seen over the coastal and coastal adjacent areas
Tuesday. The initial surge of the warm, moist airmass just after
midnight Tuesday will result in a surge of the precip shield over
the U.P. and parts of NW lower. Aloft, upper ridging continues to
exist over the L.P.. which results in mostly stable layers and
little to no jet dynamics to increase precip chances farther south.
After the initial surge of light to moderate rain Tuesday AM, a few
different surface features will battle for the upper troughs focus
and energy.. Most guidance favors this resulting in a slowly
weakening cyclone over MN/WI for the remainder of Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A break in rain, with warm temperatures, cloud cover and
breezy south winds will be seen during the second half of Tuesday.

Here is where global models start to diverge. A certain group of
ensembles generate a closed upper low over MN/IA by Wednesday
morning, which would bring more favorable jet dynamics over norther
MI for a return of light to moderate rain which would move over much
of the area Wednesday (with shower chances into Thursday and Friday
as it creeps over northern  MI and eastward). Another solution keeps
it an open wave, which results in less forcing available and leads to
less overall precipitation. There are even variations on how the
closed low is deepening, with WPC clusters showing only a couple of
percentages difference between the first 3 for Wednesday (day 4).
This confirms higher variation with how global guidance is
handling the larger scale forcing Wednesday and beyond. With all of
this said, we have higher confidence in some things; first it will
rain at least a little for most of northern MI (with NW lower and
eastern upper seeing the most), temperatures will warm to near
records Tuesday behind the warm front, anomalous moisture will move
into the region late Monday and linger through mid week, and south
winds will be gusty Tuesday.

The uncertainty is in how much rain, will there be showers and storm
potential, and when will this moist/warm airmass move out. With that
said, we can also say for certain that we do not see a significant
cool down in the forecast any time soon as mild Pacific air
continues to flood the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Largely VFR through the period, one exception might be CIU.
Brief window for MVFR CIGs between roughly 00Z and 04Z, perhaps
a little BR later in the night as well. Otherwise, most
locations should fill in with low VFR CIGs through the night
and into Monday. Light southwest winds through this afternoon
will lighten into the overnight, turning southeast on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JLD