399
FXUS63 KAPX 310739
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms progress across the
region today through Saturday.

-High pressure builds across the midwest and supports quiet
 weather through midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Split flow pattern continues to occupy North America today with
northerly flow and embedded waves over Canada while weak subtropical
flow remains over the mid U.S. Embedded shortwave troughing
currently over Minnesota will dig and deepen this afternoon as it
progresses over the Southern Ohio Valley by this weekend. Subsequent
surface low pressure will bring rounds of showers and storms today
through Saturday before moving northeast this Sunday.

Conditions remain mostly benign for the remainder of the forecast
period as deepening shortwave troughing will drop H8
temperatures into the low teens and surface temperatures into
the 70s this Saturday and Sunday. Aforementioned upstream broad
midlevel ridging over the mid/southern U.S. will strengthen and
extend its axis through the Great Lakes Region early next week.
This pattern will support surface high pressure and overall
quiet weather through midweek next week. Long-range ensembles
depict midlevel closed low pressure currently over the Alaskan
Bay progressing downstream and lifting across the
American/Canadian Plains by midweek next week. Chances of
precipitation will likely return to the forecast around the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, but the latest guidance continues
to keep highest probabilities of QPF low.

Forecast Details:

Today and Saturday: The only real active weather for the next
several days remains today and Saturday, with the aforementioned
surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas and digging across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The main axis of precipitation expected
to impact the CWA will be this evening/tonight as moisture extends
northeast into Northern Quebec. While convective-driven rainfall is
expected to spread across Eastern Upper, light stratiform rainfall
will occupy most of Northern Lower. While most of Northern Lower can
expect rainfall totals between a tenth to half an inch, the
strongest convection remaining north of the bridge will support much
higher totals. Model soundings across Mackinac and Chippewa Counties
depict long skinny CAPE, PWATs close to 2 and low cloud layer
shear to support training storms to deliver event totals of two
to three plus inches by Saturday night.

Sunday through Thursday: Subsidence aloft will be supported by the
previously mentioned ridging pattern this Sunday through Wednesday.
Surface high pressure begins to build across the Midwest, with
climatologically cool temperatures on Sunday followed by highs
slowly returning to near normal for late July/early August. No
precipitation chances are in the forecast until the end of the long-
term forecast as ensembles depict large-scale troughing lifting
through the Central Plains midweek next week. Probabilities of QPF
remain low in the forecast at this time, with the highest likelihood
remaining less than a quarter inch for the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Plenty of (partly thin) high clouds overhead. MVFR cigs are
expected to develop overnight at CIU. Otherwise mainly VFR.
There`s a small chance for showers Friday, but that chance
increases heading into the evening.

Mainly light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ