733
FXUS63 KAPX 311839
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below-zero low temperatures expected tonight, especially
  across interior northern Michigan, before mild-feeling
  conditions on Sunday.

- Snow returns Monday with 1-3" possible along and west of I-75.

- Next main chance for widespread accumulating snow returns late
  this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

An impressive longwave trough will continue to pivot across the
southeast CONUS today into Sunday before sliding over the Atlantic
as ridging folds over the Great Lakes and Midwest. The associated
surface cyclone supported by strong forcing aloft will also trek
northeast off the eastern seaboard as high pressure builds behind
the system from the Great Lakes down to the lower Mississippi
Valley. While far away from the Great Lakes, it`s worth pointing out
that the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is
forecasting the lowest heights and coldest temperatures seen in late
January/early February at multiple pressure levels across parts of
the far southeast CONUS across all times of its 30 year reanalysis
period spanning 1979-2009 for this weekend -- marking just how
impressive the system to our south is.

Forecast Details:

A rarity lately, so won`t say this too loud -- but quiet weather is
expected across northern Michigan through the weekend. High pressure
building in will help keep sunny/clear skies in place and snow
chances at bay for most through Sunday afternoon. Calm winds and
clear skies tonight will promote efficient radiational cooling and
will tank temperatures after sunset. Below-zero temperatures are
expected for most interior areas away from the lakeshores early
Sunday morning where localized readings between -10F and -20F will
be possible for the typical localized low-lying areas of northern
Michigan embedded in the higher terrain. Those along the lakeshores
are most likely to see low temperatures stay above zero. Otherwise,
temperatures are expected to warm quickly through mid/late morning
on Sunday. Highs look to climb into the mid to upper 20s for most of
northern Michigan. While this is close to average highs for the
start of February, it will feel mild to most underneath sunshine
given the recent stretch of cold weather across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

As ridging slides east of the region to start the week, shortwave
troughing looks to punch overhead Monday into early Tuesday. This
feature will provide enough forcing to support a weak, moisture-
starved clipper that looks to track from southern Ontario over the
far northeast CONUS early this week. The attendant cold front is
expected to swing across the area in the Monday morning/afternoon
time frame. High pressure will then build in through the middle of
the week as a much stronger shortwave/clipper looks to punch across
the Great Lakes late Thursday/Friday.

Forecast Details:

Light snow Monday/early Tuesday -- Snow chances return along and
ahead of the front Monday morning with steadiest snow most likely
continuing into the afternoon. While relatively little moisture will
be present to work with, forecast soundings display several thousand
feet of DGZ through the cloud layer. An efficient 1-3" of
light, fluffy snowfall is expected for most areas along and
west of I-75 across northern lower and eastern upper by Tuesday
morning. Localized amounts of 3"+ will be possible with any
areas that maximize efficiency with greater forcing/higher SLRs.
While those traveling will still have to deal with snow-cover
roads, lighter winds around 5-10 mph with some higher gusts will
help mitigate higher impacts.

Widespread accumulating snow possible late week -- After light lake
effect snow into early Tuesday morning, northern Michigan looks
like it will see a break in snow chances once again through the
middle of the week. That is expected to change in the
Thursday/Friday time frame as the aforementioned clipper
intrudes. While still several days away, this system appears it
will bring the next round of widespread accumulating snow to the
Great Lakes. Another round of cold air is also likely to plunge
into the Great Lakes with highs in the single digits and teens
and overnight lows below zero by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period as
high pressure builds. Breezy north-northwest winds will become
light and variable tonight with a ridge axis moving across the
region, sparking the possibility of fog across the terminals
(especially CIU and PLN).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC