667
FXUS63 KAPX 022232
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
532 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light lake effect snow showers tonight/Tuesday.

- Widespread snowfall Thursday.

- Reinforcing push of arctic air arrives Friday along with
  associated impacts (cold/snow).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features a long wave
trough over eastern North America and broad/low amplitude ridging
across the west.  Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough
crossing Lower Michigan...a nice little "bowling ball" vorticity
center over northwest Ontario dropping southward toward the Great
Lakes...and an upstream short wave trough coming over the top of the
western ridge crossing the northern Plains.   Low level thermal
troughing with the eastern long wave trough with sub-zero 850mb
temperatures extending all the way down to Key West...while Pacific-
modified air floods into the Plains.  Weak surface low over southern
Hudson Bay is dragging a cold front across the upper Lakes
today...with a 1029mb high over Manitoba helping push colder air
into the region.

Short wave over northwest Ontario will slide across Lake Superior
tonight while trough moving into the northern Plains also digs
southward into the mean trough position while ridge amplifies along
the west coast.  Western ridge expands into the Rocky Mountains by
midweek which keeps the mean trough over the east.  This in turn
keeps the door open for an arctic branch short wave trough to dig
southeast and into Ontario/Great Lakes for the weekend.  Manitoba
surface high builds south into the Midwest for Tuesday...with an
arctic front poised to the north across northern Ontario/Manitoba.
This front is expected to lose momentum as it drops toward the Great
Lakes...perhaps getting into upper Michigan Wednesday.  But the next
load of arctic air will come in behind an Alberta Clipper that will
pass well north of Michigan but its associated cold front is
forecast to arrive sometime Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Light lake effect snow showers tonight/Tuesday: Water vapor imagery
shows the back end of the upward forcing associated with the passing
short wave troughs moving through the forecast area as of early
afternoon. Probably an inch or so in spots through the day.  Weak
low level cold advection sets in by late in the afternoon which
should start to get some lake convection going. CBL is pretty
shallow especially for trajectories downwind of Lake Michigan and
not particularly cold (~ -15C)...so some low probability that there
could be periods (especially the farther south you go) that lack of
ice crystals may result in some freezing drizzle at times this
afternoon/evening.  Veering low level winds should eventually pull
snow showers mostly west of I-75 overnight...with an inch or two of
new accumulation around and southeast of Grand Traverse Bay tonight.
Snow showers will still be ongoing Tuesday...mainly west of the US-
131 corridor with a long effective north-northwest fetch and a
slightly colder thermodynamic profile. Around and south of Grand
Traverse Bay will be the main focus area with 1-4 inches across the
Leelanau Peninsula and adjacent areas of Benzie/Grand Traverse
counties.

Farther north off Lake Superior inversion heights will be higher/
colder tonight (~780mb/-21C) as forcing associated with the "bowling
ball" will help out in this regard.  Think there will be a decent
band across northern Chippewa county this evening...with time as low
level winds veer the band should get tilted more north/south and get
pushed west of the Soo/Brimley.  But depending on band persistence
have a 1-4 inch snowfall range around Whitefish Bay for tonight.

Widespread snowfall Thursday:  Better defined warm advection pattern
ahead of approaching arctic front expected to spread more snow
across the area at some point Thursday.  Uncertainty with regard to
when the snow arrives...consensus (NBM) PoPs have a very typical
climatological look to them (a very lake effect look to them
especially over northern Lower)...so will blend in the NBM PotSnow
probabilities and cap things at just chance probabilities during the
day Thursday (PotSnow and PoPs are a bit out of phase).  More
consensus on snow chances Thursday night with the arctic front
probably on our doorstep by Friday morning...some probabilities
right now for advisory criteria snowfall amounts through Friday
morning.

Reinforcing push of arctic air arrives Friday along with associated
impacts (cold/snow): Speaking of arctic air...as of now that is
expected to arrive Friday morning with winds shifting to the north
and becoming gusty (20-30+mph).  Falling temperatures through the
day with the mercury likely in the single digits above zero in most
locales by mid-late afternoon.  Magnitude of the cold is similar to
the 22-24 January event...though current forecast trends are pushing
the core of the coldest air east of Michigan.  So maybe just a
"glancing" blow from the colder air though we may still need to be
thinking about cold weather headlines Friday night/Saturday morning.
The cold will also bring more lake effect snow showers at least
through the first half of the weekend.  Temperatures should moderate
a bit Sunday but likely still below early February normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 132 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the taf locations
through the period. Most persistent MVFR conditions expected at
KMBL and KTVC where lake clouds and passing snow showers will be
common. Likely to see brief periods of IFR conditions at these
locations with any passing heavier snow showers. Any snow
amounts will be minor...likely under an inch. Winds become
northwest tonight and Tuesday...at times gusty on Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Discussion...JPB
AVIATION...MSB