091
FXUS63 KAPX 021832
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
132 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly light snow overspreads through the morning with 1-2"
  expected for most west of I-75 by Tuesday morning. Localized
  amounts around 3" possible near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

- Next chances for widespread accumulating snow return late this
  week after largely precip-free weather through the middle of
  the week.

- Another intrusion of very cold air Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Ridging overhead in the process of breaking down as a disheveled and
moisture starved shortwave trough moves from the US-Canada border
into the Great Lakes tonight into Monday. With ample cold air in
place, this feature will supply just enough moisture to drum up some
lake enhancement to a largely saturated environment. Initial
prefrontal SW flow will prevail, leaving the most concentrated snow
shower activity to initially focus on NW lower and portions of
eastern upper. As stated by the previous forecaster, overall lacking
moisture and forcing that leaves much to be desired will put a cap
on things, along with expanding ice cover om the Lakes muting their
moisture contribution. As such, anticipating much of the region sees
a lighter, fluffier snowfall through much of the day today, with
most places seeing up to an inch of snowfall. Generally, areas along
/ west of I-75 / US 127 probably wind up with 1-2"... with those
locally higher amounts pushing 3" still favoring the Grand Traverse
Bay region and points south.

Wild card to consider: guidance is pretty bullish on keeping the DGZ
saturated, which will keep things all snow; but what cannot be
ignored is that current upstream observations in Wisconsin are
reporting a transition to freezing drizzle in the wake of the shield
of snowfall. This may need to be now-casted for the CWA given
trends in guidance, but there could be some lulls of drizzly
periods later this morning into the afternoon when the steadiest
snowfall is dispatched east into Lake Huron.

Winds will be stunted owing to lack of a pinched pressure gradient.
As such, anticipating SW winds this morning into the afternoon to
generally hold 10mph or less sustained, with perhaps a 20mph gust.
Winds turn W late this afternoon and NW into the evening. Some
lingering light lake effect snow showers will be possible across
portions of NW lower and west of I-75 in the eastern Yoop... but
most areas probably see an inch or less of additional accumulation
tonight.

Highs today in the mid-to-upper 20s, lows in the mid-to-upper single
digits for most, as warm as mid teens along / SW of Grand Traverse
Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

In the wake of today`s weak system, 1030mb+ surface high pressure
will quickly build in for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to a
downward trend in snowfall aside from some lingering activity in the
Grand Traverse Bay region Tuesday into Tuesday night (a few
additional inches of snow possible from this). While nowhere near as
robust as previous arctic outbreaks, highs Tuesday likely struggle
to get much past the mid teens at best for most (20s south of Grand
Traverse Bay and closer to Saginaw Bay) and low 20s on Wednesday.
Overnight lows below zero certainly on the table, especially across
the interior Tuesday night, as winds trend weaker and skies
partially clear. Next matter of attention will once again be from
our northwest, as a pretty potent jet max ejects out of the Canadian
Rockies, supporting a deepening surface low that should track toward
James Bay. Guidance is pretty aggressive on this feature forcing a
strong arctic cold front through the region Thursday night into
Friday. With this, a return of accumulating snow (nothing overly
heavy, perhaps on the order of a few inches for the most part) into
Friday morning.

This will also usher in a bit of an abbreviated cold shot for
Friday into Saturday. Falling temperatures seem likely, with
highs probably coming early in the morning Friday as temps
plummet into the teens and single digits by late afternoon if
current trends hold. Guidance is also lighting up for lows well
below zero Friday night and perhaps again Saturday night.
Considering the amount of wind that would accompany this,
potential is there for another round of dangerous cold weather
headlines. In the wake of this system, a relatively quick
"rebound" seems in the cards as highs trend more seasonable into
the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Light snow continues to be observed tracking across northern
Michigan. More of the same will continue (mainly MVFR with
pockets of VFR) through most of the period with precipitation
chances turning to favor more NW lake effect flow prone areas
tonight into Tuesday (mainly TVC and perhaps MBL) bringing
condtions down to IFR to even LIFR at times. Winds turn
northwest after 00Z and increase with occasional gusts 15-20
knots, especially APN towards the end of the period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...NSC