805
FXUS63 KAPX 020733
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
233 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasionally active wintry weather continues through Monday.

- Increasing probabilities for a warming trend next week, with
  potential for high temperatures to climb above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, broad troughing
anchored across the northeastern third of the CONUS with trough axis
draped from Hudson Bay south-southeastward into New England and down
the Atlantic Coast. Slow mid-upper level height rises anticipated
locally today as trough axis continues to quickly pivot farther
east, but not before the core of coldest low-mid level air continues
to sags into the region this morning (e.g. H8 temps down to -18/-19
C). Surface high pressure upstream tries to nose in to the region
later today into tonight, and while likely to aid in a downtrend to
lake induced snow showers across northern lower, lake aggregate
troughing will likely continue to reinforce snow showers chances
across parts of the eastern U.P. through tonight.

Forecast Details: Snow shower activity across the northwest lower MI
snow belts on a downtrend over the last couple of hours, and that
remains the expectation heading into today. Certainly plenty cold
for lake processes to continue, but paltry moisture above a ~4kft
(and shrinking) inversion should yield little in the way of
additional meaningful accumulation past the early-mid morning hours.
These light snow shower chances wane further this afternoon/evening.
As such, no extension planned to the northern lower winter weather
advisory set to expire mid-morning.

Farther north across eastern upper, better snow shower potential
remains. Low-level winds across far northern areas, Lake Superior
and Whitefish Bay continue to ever so slowly veer more west-
northwesterly early this morning with occasional vigorous snow
showers impacting north of M-28 at times, including in and out of
the Soo. Little change anticipated to this through the morning, with
latest trends supporting potential for winds to back a touch this
afternoon, perhaps shifting the bulk of activity back into parts of
Ontario -- albeit not a ton of confidence in this. At least light
snow showers expected to continue into and through tonight. With
respect to additional accumulation, highest amounts expected near
Whitefish Point and areas southeast, including in and out of Brimley
and the Soo (perhaps as far south of Rudyard/Kinross). These areas
favored for an additional localized 4"+ through early afternoon,
with locally higher amounts in excess of 6" certainly not out
of the question. Have opted to extend the winter weather
advisory for western Chippewa to match the end time of the
winter storm warning for central Chippewa, with trends monitored
through the morning for a possible extension beyond that.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Saturday - Monday: Several additional snow chances Saturday through
early next week. Saturday, a weak clipper is progged to slide across
the northern Great Lakes (very similar to yesterday) with an uptick
in synoptic moisture/forcing for more widespread snow shower
activity -- most notable across the typical snow belts of northwest
lower and eastern upper. Accums don`t look to be all that
impressive, perhaps a localized few inches in spots, but
nonetheless, some impact to travel expected across parts of northern
MI for what`ll likely be a busy winter recreation weekend.

Lingering light lake effect anticipated to continue Saturday night
into at least the first half of Sunday before attention turns to
another incoming wave set to arrive Sunday night into Monday.
Enhanced southwesterly low-mid level flow expected to drive warm
advection/frontogenetic forcing aloft and attendant widespread snow
chances. Looks to be a pretty quick hitter, but latest trends
suggest potential for some decent snowfall rates and at least a few
inches of accumulation. Certainly a time frame to watch for
potential impacts.

Tuesday - Thursday: As expected, uncertainty increase through this
time frame, but growing potential exists for a warm up Tuesday
through the end of next work week. LREF probabilities for high temps
>32 degrees Tuesday - Friday greater than 60% each day across much
of northern MI, with a couple of days featuring spots with >80%
chances. Probs for >36 degrees diminish, as one would expect, but
still falling in the 30-50% range for much of northern lower. Worth
monitoring at least low end rain/mixed precip chances through this
time, but no glaring high impact storm systems seen at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Somewhat variable conditions out there tonight, with lake
effect clouds/snow thanks to cold air in place. Expect APN to
stay VFR. All other TAF sites will see mix of VFR and MVFR due
to cigs and at times -SHSN.

Brisk w to wnw winds continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ021-
     022-027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     MIZ086.
     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ