166
FXUS63 KAPX 020729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild temperatures build across the Great Lakes region this week.
Little to no precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

-Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the
 Midwest this Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

500mb troughing over North America today will develop into a
more zonal flow pattern across the midwest. Current 850mb
heights with temperatures below freezing will begin to lift and
pull a milder airmass into the region from the southwest. Large
scale surface high pressure will progress eastward while still
influencing northern Michigan. This will support relatively dry
and insignificant weather today through Wednesday while surface
temperatures turn mild for early March.

The midweek pattern becomes more active as multiple waves of energy
track through the region. The first round of rainfall for northern
Michigan is this Thursday as a shortwave develops over the Central
Plains and tracks through the Ohio Valley. Round 2 will follow
closely behind this Friday and Saturday with guidance depicting
deeper moisture and enough instability to potentially produce some
convection.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Mild temperatures build across the Great Lakes region this
 week. Little to no precipitation is expected through
 Wednesday...Warm air advection underway across northern
 Michigan will continue light southwest flow. Cloud cover will
 remain mostly clear across the northern Lower Peninsula, while
 eastern upper will observe some low level cloud development as
 relatively warm air travels across Lake Michigan. Afternoon
 high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s across
 northern lower, while the Upper Peninsula will remain near
 freezing. Seasonably warm temperatures build Tuesday and
 Wednesday as highs reach the mid to upper 40s for most areas.
 The latest runs from the NBM produce a slight chance of precip
 this Tuesday for the southernmost counties of the CWA driven by
 a stationary boundary setting up across the Ohio Valley. The
 latest deterministic guidance keeps moisture well south of the
 CWA, but low probabilities willstill remain in the forecast
 this cycle.

-Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to track across the
Midwest this Thursday through the weekend... The next round of
precipitation for the region remains on Thursday as the previously
mentioned shortwave digs through the Ohio Valley. The latest
guidance shows a surface low tracking through the Michigan/Ohio
border and spreading moisture north. Low probabilities (20-40%) of
measurable QPF remain below M-32 with little to no chances of precip
expected north of the bridge. Guidance depicts low chances of
freezing drizzle Thursday morning, but the vast majority will remain
light steady rainfall with surface temperatures climbing into the
40s Thursday afternoon. The majority of rainfall remains around the
Friday/Saturday timeframe as the second shortwave arrives. The
highest probabilities of QPF remain between a quarter and a half
inch across the northern Lower Peninsula. Moderate mid level lapse
rates and enough low level CAPE will potentially produce some
embedded thunder Friday night.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this taf cycle under mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. Light winds this morning become a
bit gusty out of the southwest this afternoon. Winds are
expected to decrease again this evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB