949
FXUS63 KAPX 012257
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
557 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly light snow moves in early Monday morning with 1-2"
  expected for most west of I-75 by Tuesday morning. Localized
  amounts around 3" possible near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

- Next chances for widespread accumulating snow return late this
  week after precip-free weather through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive longwave troughing will continue to pivot across the
eastern CONUS and over the Atlantic tonight and Monday. Meanwhile,
embedded ridging over the Great Lakes will slide east as shortwave
troughing punches overhead by Monday evening. This feature will
provide enough forcing for a relatively weak, strung-out cyclone to
work across Ontario and the far northern Great Lakes tonight through
Monday as the attendant cold front swings across northern Michigan
Monday morning and afternoon.

Forecast Details:

Mainly light snow beginning early Monday morning -- Snow returns to
northern Michigan early Monday morning along and ahead of the
aforementioned front, beginning first along the Lake Michigan
shoreline and parts of eastern upper before sunrise. Lack of more
substantial forcing and moisture will work to limit snowfall
intensity and amounts as snow moves east across the area through the
morning/afternoon. That said, forecast soundings display several
thousand feet of saturation through the DGZ, which will support
efficient snowfall with high SLRs. Snow looks to hold on across
northwest lower and the eastern U.P. longer than areas to the east
as light lake effect snow showers set in later Monday into Monday
night. All in all, a fluffy 1-2" is expected across most areas west
of I-75 heading into Monday night with localized amounts around 3"
possible closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline, especially south and
west of Grand Traverse Bay. Lesser amounts of 1" or less are
anticipated for most along and east of I-75. Steadiest snowfall is
expected Monday morning where drops in visibility and impacts to
travel will be possible under heavier snow bands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing starting the period off centered over southern
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will progress east as ridging
folds overhead once again heading into the middle of the week. In
turn, surface high pressure will build across much of the Midwest
and Great Lakes through Wednesday. A strong mid/upper-level jet will
then punch over the region late Thursday/early Friday, supporting a
clipper that looks to trek across Ontario and the Great Lakes during
that time. Behind this, high pressure looks to build overhead next
weekend.

Forecast Details:

Widespread accumulating snow late this week -- After light lake
effect snow showers end Tuesday morning followed by a break in snow
chances for most through Wednesday, snow returns to the Northwoods
late Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned clipper moves
through. As the previous forecaster noted, latest guidance continues
to increase confidence in amounts staying close to advisory criteria
or below for most of the area. Forecast details will become more
clear as the week progresses.

Otherwise, highs in the upper teens and 20s are likely for most of
the area through the end of the week. Much colder temperatures make
a return next weekend behind the front, however, with highs in the
single digits and teens and overnight lows likely dipping well below
zero.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR at PLN/APN/TVC this evening with MVFR CIGs at CIU/MBL due
to lake induced clouds off of Lake Michigan. A clipper system
crosses northern MI later tonight into Monday with more
widespread MVFR CIGs and light snow, perhaps dropping VSBYs to
IFR at times. Most widespread snow expected to be east of all
terminals by midday Monday, with just a few lingering lake
effect snow showers through the end of the TAF period --
primarily CIU and northwest lower MI terminals. Winds generally
light out of the south tonight through Monday morning before
veering west-northwesterly Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MJG