303
FXUS63 KAPX 020405
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1105 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold again tonight, especially in eastern upper and n central
  lower MI

- Much warmer weather develops this week

- Small rain/snow chance Tuesday. Better rain chances Wednesday
  and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Sprawling, cool Canadian high pressure is gradually crossing the
northern lakes this afternoon. Despite the approaching high, and
a shallow inversion at 890mb, there is enough low-level moisture
(with a lake contribution) for shallow stratocu to develop and
expand beneath the inversion. Parts of the eastern UP are seeing
a lot more sun, deeper in the cold but drier air. (Even with
that, Soo MI only finally cracked a double digit temp at 2pm.)
There is a bit more sun in our s central areas too. Meanwhile, a
few flurries are seen in nw lower MI, and band of weakening
snow showers is working toward western Chip/Mack Cos.

Near term: With a loss of diurnal heating/mixing, and the high
overhead, we should see low clouds decrease from sw to ne
tonight. Have lowered min temps from guidance a few degrees,
taking eastern upper and n central lower MI to a few degrees
below zero. Single digits above elsewhere. Developing ssw low-
level flow Monday will expand lake clouds into eastern upper MI
(especially west of I-75), but the incoming warmer airmass will
result in less overlake instability with time. Northern lower MI
should see a relatively sunny day. Highs upper 20s north to mid
30s south. Mon night, surface ridging continues to extend
westward into our area. But return flow in the central/southern
plains will be broadly returning moisture to our sw. Cloud cover
will be increasing Mon night. Still some upper teens for lows in
parts of ne lower MI, low-mid 20s most common elsewhere.

Long term: 500mb flow becomes more zonal, and by mid-week some
shortwave ridging gets pumped up here, though only in advance
of a ejecting shortwave trof. The broader moist return flow will
expand into the OH Valley and eventually southern lakes by
Tuesday. But guidance tends to shunt this eastward a little more
quickly now. Tuesday will still have a chance for rain and snow
in northern lower MI, especially in the south, but pops/QPF have
both decreased. Another northward surge of moisture is likely to
have more success beginning Wednesday. That`s the beginning of a
longer period of potentially unsettled weather, but most of that
would be in the form of rain. There could conceivably be an icy
mix in some areas Wed night, depending on precip timing onset,
but too much uncertainty to worry about that too much yet.

The main story is an extended period of well above normal temps.
Lots of 40s in northern lower MI by Wednesday (eastern UP trails
behind), and some 50s (at least) by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this taf cycle under mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. Light winds this morning become a
bit gusty out of the southwest this afternoon. Winds are
expected to decrease again this evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...MSB