682
FXUS63 KAPX 101043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sporadic shower/storm chances for a few days, highest
  Wednesday.

- Somewhat cooler temps late this week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Low heights over the eastern Canada, and persistent ridging over the
mountain west, will lead to wnw flow aloft into the Great Lakes thru
the forecast. The most active areas of wx will tend to be to our
north (showery under much colder temps aloft) and south (MCS action
along a wavering frontal zone). Our wx remains comparatively
quiet, but not absolutely so.

Isolated convection is occurring early this morning, along a
weak cold front making southward progress into the central
lakes. MA few showers are moving east from the Cheboygan area,
and there were a few showers earlier in ne WI. Guidance wants to
bring a stray shower/storm into nw lower MI late overnight into
early this morning. Away from this, lower clouds and fog are
forming with light winds and a moist BL. A larger area of
convection is moving into sw lower MI, and this may have some
opportunity to grow upscale as it translates eastward. Models do
allow the northern edge of this MCS to glance by Gladwin/Arenac
Cos this morning. Otherwise, for the afternoon, the Lk Huron
lake breeze pushing into a synoptic nw breeze may trigger a few
showers/ storms in ne lower MI. Mainly quiet tonight, though
patchy fog/stratus is again expected overnight. With very weak
winds Tuesday, lake breezes are likely to spawn spotty
convection, mainly in eastern upper and ne lower MI.

Better chance for showers/perhaps t-storms arrives late Tue
night into Wed, as weak low pressure and an associated shortwave
cross lower MI. This gets replaced by a relatively strong/cool
surface high pressure, building into northern Ontario and
eventually northern Great Lakes late this week. Cooler temps but
dry wx by Thu night-Fri. A more prominent shortwave and surface
low looks likely to push into the southern lakes Sat-Sun,
returning chances for rain. Max temps, after being near 80f
today thru Wed, will lower into the 70s after that.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Contending with some fog/stratus as expected this morning,
mainly CIU and MBL. Conditions will improve fairly quickly this
morning, then VFR for the rest of the day. Possible for a
SHRA/TSRA to pop up this afternoon near APN, but this chance is
not high enough to mention in the TAF. Additional fog/low clouds
is possible again late tonight, especially MBL/PLN/CIU.
Northwest winds get a little breezy this afternoon, with light
winds returning tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ