854
FXUS63 KAPX 031031
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
631 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today and Thursday due to dry conditions
  and breezy winds with gusty conditions building in Thursday

- High temperatures warm into the 80s today for most of northern
  MI, with these warmer temperatures lingering through much of
  the forecast period

- Next rain and storm chances possibly returning as early as
  Thursday and lingering through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Current water vapor and ALPW shows deep gulf moisture advecting
northward  up the central plains and reaching as far north as
Manitoba CAN. Stormy activity continues over the Dakotas and into
southern CAN this morning as a stalled cut off low continues to spin
over Saskatchewan and Alberta. Upper level ridging continues to be
centered over the state today with surface high pressure in place as
well. Temperatuers will warm 3 to 8 degrees today, reaching into the
high 80s for some interior spots of northern lower. Lake breeze
winds will establish under a highly unstable BL, with the height
rising up to 5 to 6 kft. A dry airmass continues to be anchored over
northern MI, and when combined with the breezy winds and unstable
conditions, results in elevated fire danger this afternoon.

Late this evening and into tonight, high clouds will start to move
overhead as the upper level cut off gets shoved eastward by a mid
latitude cyclone approaching the Pac NW. Dry air in the lower
levels will persist through Thursday, and the clouds overhead will
work to keep overnight temperatures fairly warm tonight. The upper
closed low will open up and weaken as it moves east. Gradients will
tighten, but likely yield southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 15 to 20 mph (coastal Lk MI could see gusts  up to 25 mph)
Thursday. Partly cloudy skies will linger into Thursday, and the dry
airmass near the surface continuing through the evening hours. High
temperatures will rise into the low to high 80s for most of northern
MI. Elevated fire danger will continue into Thursday afternoon, with
some spots potentially reaching critical fire conditions (Red Flag)
due to the stronger and more frequent gusts. Overnight recoveries
the previous night (tonight) will also be poor.

Late Thursday evening into the night time, storms could be marching
across the U.P. and moving into the easter U.P. area. Chances for
severe storms remain low, but brief heavy rain and gusty outflow
winds will be possible with storms. Convective remains from possible
MCS activity or widespread scattered convection could wander into
northern lower early Friday morning from activity to the west. By
this time, the upper level high will be to our south and northern MI
will be within this "ring of fire". By early Friday, PWATs will have
likely increased to +1" with an LLJ of 20 to 30 kts overhead. MUCAPE
will begin to rise to +1000 j/kg with increasing shear as well. This
environment will become more ripe going into Friday afternoon with
the aid of diurnal instability. Scattered to widespread storms of
are likely for Friday. It is too early to have confidence in exact
storm hazards, however gusty outflow winds and heavy rain are
likely. Small hail isn`t out of the question either, although deep
moisture will be present by that time.

The upper short wave will pass Saturday, ushering in surface high
pressure again over northern MI. Drier interior CAN air returns to
the state for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR. Still plenty of dry low-level air, though we will have
periods of cirrus overhead. Winds will be light and westerly,
though with lake breeze components, and APN should see a pure
lake breeze this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ