065
FXUS63 KAPX 270931
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
531 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with increasingly warm temperatures through Tuesday.

- Rain chances creep into the picture later Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

- Low-end shower chances to carry on Thursday into next weekend.
  Ample dry time expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Well defined nor`easter closing off the Mid Atlantic shore, which is
retrograding a rex block ridge overhead. Ridge remains parked
overhead into next week, as the blocking from the nor`easter eases
once it gets set adrift to the east on the Atlantic into early next
week. Meanwhile, stagnant northern stream flow will lead to the
dissolution of a northern stream wave over the upper Midwest.
Cursory glance at the 00z sounding this evening states that we may
even struggle to get cloud cover to manifest until later today into
tonight from this wave as it makes an attempt to intrude as it gets
sheared out overhead. Otherwise, largely clear skies amid dry
condition to prevail through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, split flow prominently featuring an active subtropical
jet reinforced by longwave troughing anchored off the California
coast to unleash a torrent of eastern tropical Pacific waves into
the central and southern Plains through the week, including the
potential remnants of major Hurricane Polo currently churning off
the coast of Mexico being ingested around / after midweek. Meager
northern stream activity anticipated until a more potent shortwave
zips through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but the lingering effects of rex blocking may
shear this wave out as it approaches as well. Continued wave
ejections coupled with a stationary front creating a barrier for
moisture will stonewall deepest moisture pooling across the
aforementioned region, potentially leaking as far north as the mid
Mississippi and Ohio valleys later in the week, with increased, but
still unimpressive, moisture streaming into the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes through the remainder of the forecast period. With the
breakdown in the rex block ridge and more zonal northern stream flow
building, anticipation is that temperatures cool down to much more
seasonable levels with low end shower chances into next weekend.

Details:

Ongoing patchy fog will scour out through this morning. Otherwise,
still quite quiet here in the Northwoods the next few days.
Aforementioned decaying shortwave will lead to an increase in cloud
cover later today into tonight, with the only major impacts likely
being slightly warmer overnight temps (lows might only touch the
30s, with 40s most elsewhere) and likely a reduced fog footprint
across the region. As the pattern becomes regular again, return flow
to build on the backside of the ridge as the trough axis folds
eastward, resulting in warmer temperatures and sunnier skies Monday
and Tuesday, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s across the
board, and overnight lows in the 40s.

As the aforementioned Pacific moisture plume intrudes Tuesday night
into Wednesday, reinforcing northern stream wave to draw moisture
into the region... but the wave will be on a downward trend, and
current timing of this feature favors a nighttime passage. In
essence, with the amount of dry air overhead, anticipation is that
any meaningful rainfall will have to be convectively charged. With
an overnight passage, conceptually, instability should be lacking,
and thus, trends will likely be bearish with rain amounts in the
coming days regarding Wednesday`s shower potential. Through the rest
of the week, the active rain / storm zone to our south will draw
north a touch with time, perhaps clipping the very southern edge of
the Great Lakes with some appreciable rain through the end of the
week. This corridor of rain may get a charge from the remnants of
Hurricane Polo getting ingested into the pattern... and the amount
of moisture and forcing may be just enough to prolong low end shower
chances Thursday through next weekend... but should be noted that
there will be ample dry time. Wouldn`t even be surprising to see the
forecast trend dry some days given how little moisture is set to be
drawn into our neck of the woods. Temperatures will respond to the
shortwave passage accordingly as well... highs will trend to much
more seasonable levels by next weekend... with highs in the low-to-
mid 60s and lows back in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR
conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies today and tonight. Latest
trends support minimal fog/mist potential tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB