655
FXUS63 KAPX 261841
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool nights with fog into next week, patchy frost possible tonight.

- Quiet and dry into early next week with shower chances
  reappearing around mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

High pressure will keep things quiet and dry through the
weekend and into early next week, with temperatures gradually
warming further into the 70s. Tonight will remain cool with
mostly clear skies and light winds, allowing lows to fall into
the upper 30s across interior locations, with most areas in the
40s to low 50s. Frost potential looks fairly limited, though
some of the typical colder interior spots could see localized
frost. Sunday then stays dry with mostly sunny skies and highs
mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The warming trend continues Monday and Tuesday as the surface
high gradually shifts away, with highs climbing further into the
70s and some locations potentially reaching the upper 70s by
Tuesday (average highs this time of year are generally 61 to 68
degrees). Though daytime highs will be warmer, the dry airmass
and clear nights will still allow or fairly cool overnight
temperatures. Overall, conditions look quiet and pleasant
through the first half of the week.

The next chance for precipitation arrives around the middle of
next week as a more potent northern-stream wave moves through
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This should help pull some of
the deeper moisture farther north, but much of the better
moisture is still expected to remain focused across the Plains
and farther south. As a result, shower chances look to increase
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday into Wednesday night, but
there is still considerable uncertainty on how much
precipitation actually reaches northern Michigan. The timing and
eventual track of the wave will also play a big role in how
much of an impact the system makes on the region and whether we
see a more meaningful round of rain or just some scattered
showers. For now, continue to keep the forecast on shower
chances rather than anything more widespread or significant,
with the eventual track and moisture availability of the system
still being the main questions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions continue thru the rest of the afternoon (low chance
for 4-5kft clouds to sneak in near CIU and perhaps PLN); winds
remain light and variable with lake breezes at coastal sites.
Similar tonight as last night with another round of fog expected,
esp for CIU, APN, and MBL, where IFR-LIFR visbys/cigs possible,
especially between 10-13z. Light/vrb winds overnight with land
breezes (offshore flow) at coastal sites. Could be a better shot at
some 3-5kft clouds after 14-15z, with winds largely light/vrb but
could become more NE at APN, MBL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...FEF