819
FXUS63 KAPX 150905
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
505 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain coverage generally diminishing into the afternoon with
 increasingly humid conditions. Residual shower development
 possible this afternoon across NW lower into far NE lower.

-Breezy to windy conditions this morning will slowly taper
 through the afternoon.

-Largely dry Wednesday through Friday with potential for
 another round of appreciable rainfall this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Strong corridor of isentropic lift being drawn into the region at
this late hour as northern Michigan finds itself sandwiched between
a mature 993mb surface low in Manitoba and departing strong 1026mb
surface high currently making a run at the St. Lawrence River Valley
/ northern New England. Result is the complete overwhelming of the
dry layer from Monday as deep moisture is drawn into the region amid
an active 40kt low level jet nosing into the region, with copious
lift / f-gen aloft providing more than enough support for rain
showers to continue through the morning hours across the region once
the associated surface warm front passes through... which will in
turn lead to quite the humid afternoon across the region. In
addition, pressure gradient most pinched overhead this morning will
likely lead to quite a wind-driven rain for the most part... with
some gusts pushing 40mph on the lakeshores and the highest of
interior terrain, generally 25-35mph elsewhere. Once the warm front
clears, winds should be on a downward trend as the pressure gradient
slackens, but will still be a touch breezy through sunset.

Decaying precipitation shield looks to really keep cloud cover
intact through the day, and surface temperatures likely
struggle to break 70 across the Au Sable River Valley where
current trends indicate that clouds / showers should linger
longest. Elsewhere, temps spike into the 73-77 range as peeks of
sun filter through and the warm nose moves firmly overhead, and
dewpoints spike well into the 60s across the board. As such,
this may be just enough for residual shower / thunder development
in the afternoon as the surface cold front passes through
northern Michigan. These should be on a localized scale and
quite transient when considering the flow, but with the zenith
of moisture concentration overhead, an isolated downpour is
possible... primarily favoring spots along and NORTH of a
Cadillac to Alpena line. Current trends do not support enough
instability to drum up additional shower activity in eastern
upper this afternoon.

The cold front will surge through in the evening, flipping winds
more northwest, and commencing the intrusion of cooler and drier air
as surface high pressure builds by Wednesday. Surface cold front
associated with the ongoing system looks to turn stationary over the
lower Great Lakes west into the Corn Belt (just north of an
impressive late summer thermal ridge over the southeast CONUS),
which should serve as the focus for additional low level jet driven
rain / storms through midweek, likely keeping us dry through the
rest of the week (aside from an isolated shower chance along / south
of M-55 tonight, but guidance is trending quite bearish to this
idea... front should be way too far south to support this anyways).
As such, tentative thoughts at this juncture are that we hold dry
and seasonable through Friday with highs in the 65-75 range and lows
in the 40-55 range.

Looking at next weekend, long term guidance is warming up to the
idea of another potent Pacific borne, southern stream wave ejecting
into the Plains... coupled with another deep surge in moisture
to boot. Still a bit early to make the call, but this pattern
has basically started holding up a sign that says "HEAVY RAIN:
PASS THROUGH HERE" with a giant, neon green arrow pointing at
the Corn Belt into the entirety of the Great Lakes. Will have to
see how amplified this wave is, as a far enough northward surge
in moisture could certainly put us in play for another round of
efficient to even heavy rainfall this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Shower will continue to end from west to east this morning into
early afternoon. However, scouring out of the moist low levels will take
several hours longer, resulting in MVFR to IFR producing low clouds
this morning into at least the start of this afternoon. Cigs are
expected to increase and begin to scatter out late today, and
especially this evening. Gusty south to southwest winds today, with
some of those gusts up and over 25 knots. Winds will subside this
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018-
     020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088-095-096-098-099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB