318
FXUS63 KAPX 011822
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally warm and quiet; isolated shower potential in
  northwest lower this afternoon.

- Rain chances return midweek and beyond.

- Well below normal temperatures Thursday into the weekend with
  highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Ridging regime overhead with attendant surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes providing us with another stellar day on this Labor
Day, with temperatures rising into the 70s, eventually peaking a few
degrees above / below 80 across the board. SSE flow prevails today,
helping draw in that warmer air. Most areas are mixing out this
afternoon, limiting instability for the most part... but with
excellent convergence, suppose there is a chance for a rogue shower
or two across northern lower, so will retain slight chance PoPs
north and east of Grand Traverse Bay to the Bridge this afternoon.
Winds trend calm again under mostly clear skies, but with moisture
return subtly commencing ahead of an upstream wave over the Canadian
Prairies... would not be surprised at all to see fog development
tonight. Caveat to that is that with a tightening pressure gradient,
winds may not decouple sufficiently for fog development... so
not anticipating anything overly widespread. Lows again in the
40s to mid 50s, coolest inland east of US 131.

For tomorrow, the aforementioned upstream wave inches closer, and
leads to more of a SW flow. With a little bit more moisture to play
with, certainly in the cards to see a few more showers Tuesday
afternoon, this time focused across far northeast lower where
surface convergence is maximized... so some more slight chance PoPs
are in order. Highs Tuesday peak in the 70s and 80s once again...
and will likely be the last primarily dry day for a bit as the
upstream system builds in Wednesday (see Long Term).&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Robust lobe of troughing across the Canadian Prairies will dig into
the upper Midwest, and eventually the Great Lakes too, sending a
cold front through the region, and increasing shower and perhaps
thunder chances with time through the day Wednesday. Periods of
showers and chillier temperatures will prevail through later
Wednesday through the day on Thursday, which could bring a round of
beneficial rainfall to the region as the trough largely closes off
just north of Lake Superior, keeping us in a chillier and more
unsettled regime through the remainder of the week. Perhaps the
bigger story is going to be just how chilly it gets. Guidance is
pretty aggressive in keeping us in well below normal temperatures
with highs in the 55-65 degree range Thursday and Friday. Given the
uncertainty regarding how much in the way of cloud cover and
persistent flow we are dealing with, will refrain from adding frost
to messaging at this juncture... but should be noted that in the
event we do manage to clear out and decouple the winds overnight
later this week, frost potential will arise with such chilly daytime
high temperatures. The unsettled weather looks to ease some heading
into the upcoming weekend, with highs slowly moderating back into
the mid 60s - lower 70s with time into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Cloud cover will clear this evening carrying mostly clear skies for
all sites into Tuesday morning. Patchy BR will drop VSBYs to MVFR
and potentially IFR at KMBL between 0800Z and 1300Z Tuesday morning
while the remainder of the sites should remain VFR through the
entire forecast period. Low level cu field is expected to develop by
midday along with some high level clouds intruding from the north
this Tuesday across the region. Light winds are expected to continue
with variable directions due to inland penetrating lake breeze
processes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...SJC