940
FXUS63 KAPX 231049
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
649 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High pressure continues to support quiet and overall dry weather
through Friday.

-Active weather pattern returns early next week with showers at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Yesterday`s deep longwave trough from Northern Ontario/Quebec
quickly broke down overnight, forming a quasi-zonal flow pattern
across the CONUS this morning. Heights will slowly start to rise
across the Midwest, slowly building temperatures back to near
climatological normals with highs in the mid/upper 70s for most
parts of the CWA. Surface high pressure centered over the
Illinois/Iowa border continues to keep conditions dry and sunny
today and Friday.

The midlevel pattern turns to split flow this weekend across North
America, featuring a large-scale closed low pressure over Hudson Bay
and low amplitude riding over the American Rockies. Weak forcing and
synoptic systems being forced north and south of the Great Lakes
Region will keep conditions dry the majority of the weekend, but
scattered showers remain possible at times from disheveled vicinity
boundaries and waves. The next chance of widespread showers and
storms holds off until next week as a shortwave digs across the
northwoods. Overall, this system appears to be quite moisture-
starved from being cut off due to aforementioned ridging, but if
timing prevails, this round of convection could return some
beneficial rainfall to the region for the first time in several days.


Forecast Details:

Today and Friday: Surface high pressure with slowly climbing
midlevel heights will bring typical pleasant summertime conditions.
Highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s today with light southwest
winds. While the majority of the CWA is dry all day, one or two
brief sprinkles tied to a wave tracking across Southern Ontario
could make its way into northern Chippewa County, but showers will
deteriorate over land trying to overcome the low level dry
layer so only one or two localized areas could observe a trace.
No measurable precipitation is expected through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: A surface low develops over Northern Alberta
and weakens as it moves toward the Canadian east coast. An attached
front will drag across the southern Canadian provinces, delivering
light amounts of moisture to the U.S. Canadian Border. Scattered
showers are expected this Saturday for Michigan`s Eastern Upper
Peninsula. With a disheveled low beginning to break apart, this
front will lose organization as it passes, leaving the majority of
the precipitation closer to the Wisconsin Border. For Chippewa and
Mackinac counties, only a tenth of an inch or less is expected for
most locations. Sunday will likely remain dry but feature increasing
cloud cover with an approaching shortwave.

Monday through Wednesday Outlook: The aforementioned shortwave
trough develops surface low pressure lee of the Canadian Rockies and
moves to the Upper Great Lakes this Monday. Showers and storms will
persist, returning widespread measurable QPF to the CWA for the
first time in several days. Highest rainfall probabilities (40-60%)
remain between a tenth and a quarter inch but embedded convection
will likely change totals as we head closer to early next week.
Surface high pressure appears to build on the backside of this
system as it heads downstream, returning sunny skies and dry weather
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions anticipated today with just some FEW-SCT hi based cu
development in spots. A bit of breeziness expected at CIU and PLN
midday through the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ341-342-344.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG