718
FXUS63 KAPX 161001
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
601 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke/haze through Friday.

- Shower/storm chances return Friday-Saturday. Marginal risk for
excessive rain and severe storms (across parts of northern MI)
Friday night.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging encompasses much
of the CONUS early this morning, sandwiched between closed upper low
pressure over the Pac NW and over Quebec/Newfoundland, with broad
troughing from the latter extending across the eastern Great Lakes
and New England. Broad surface high pressure extends from northeast
Manitoba southward through much of the Mississippi Valley into the
western Great Lakes. Near-term concerns continue to revolve around
ongoing wildfire smoke, but eventually turn to incoming shower/storm
chances Friday - Saturday, and again early next week, as a series of
more potent mid-level waves trek across the northern Great lakes.

Forecast Details: Near-surface smoke likely to persist today and
likely through much of Friday. Air quality concerns likely to
continue through the duration as nearly all smoke-allowing guidance
continued to depict sub 3 mile visibilities being common for at
least the next 36 hours. This likely to continue to prevent max
daytime heating with daytime highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s to
mid-80s area-wide...several degrees cooler than what high temps
would be progged at without the smoke.

With respect to precip chances moving forward, a more prominent
shortwave trough is expected to cross the area on Saturday, with
increasing forcing/moisture out ahead. Initial chances for a few
showers Friday, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, more numerous
showers and storms become likely Friday night into Saturday. Can`t
entirely rule out stronger storms Friday night, especially if any
upstream convective development during the day Friday is able to
maintain itself this far east. Gusty winds would be the primary
threat, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Latest trends favor drier conditions to wrap up the weekend by later
Saturday through Sunday. Additional shower/storm chances return
Monday, perhaps into Tuesday, with cooler/below normal temperatures
favored Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke continues to be the primary concern through the entirety of
this TAF period. See little evidence for much improvement, with both
MVFR to IFR conditions expected from deep layer smoke, with
widespread VSBY restrictions expected to continue. Do expect at
least some fluctuations as pockets of more dense smoke pass
overhead, although timing of such remains very uncertain. Generally
light winds continue, sustained AOB 10 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LHZ345>349.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...MJG