792
FXUS63 KAPX 102335
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
735 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant ice accumulations expected across northeast Lower
Michigan tonight into Wednesday morning. Several inches of snow
possible for parts of the EUP.

- Active weather continues, with several inches of snow possible
  Friday and a more potent system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Blocking pattern setting up over the north central Pacific...with
broad troughing from the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW and Canadian
Prairies with a 160+kt upper jet following the baroclinic zone from
OR to ND to central Quebec, passing just to our north. In the
southern stream...cutoff low over northwest Mexico starting to eject
into the Desert SW of the US...with sharpening ridge axis ahead of
it across the MS Valley. As a result...return flow bringing Gulf
moisture into the southeastern US/Mid MS Valley...even sneaking as
far as the OH Valley. Here in the Great Lakes...we remain near the
low-level thermal gradient...with colder 850mb (sub-zero) temps
passing to our north and east on WNW flow...and warmer weather to
our south focusing more into the OH Valley with low-level flow there
turning more WSW...leaving us in a bit of a deformation region along
said thermal gradient. At the surface...1025mb high pressure over
northern Ontario...and 1022mb high over the FL panhandle...with a
stationary boundary stretching from NoCal through the Central
Plains...into southern MI...and up generally along the St. Lawrence
Seaway, where it becomes more of a cold front into southeast Canada
and New England.

Surface low pressure will track into the Upper Great Lakes
tonight...winding up as it passes us early Wednesday. Expect a
wintry mess tonight into Wednesday, with even some thunder mixed in
tonight across the southwest in particular...followed by blustery
and cool conditions for Wednesday. (Quite the change from Monday.)
Only a short break from the synoptic action on tap...with the next
clipper system already digging into the Midwest by later Thursday.
This next feature will be a potent quick-hitter, with another
tightly-wound surface low crossing the Upper Great Lakes Friday. The
hits just keep on coming...with an amplifying shortwave across the
western US looking to eject eastward this weekend...likely spinning
up another strong storm system across the central US/OH Valley
region. Quite a bit of uncertainty yet in the details for that last
one...but certainly looks like the breezy/windy and active
conditions will continue through the middle of the month.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Wintry mix tonight, with ice accumulation concerns... Expecting
several inches of wet snow across western Chippewa county tonight
and have elected to issue a Winter Storm Warning to account for this
idea. Between here and the Straits, closer to 3-6 inches of snow is
expected...possibly mixing with some sleet at times. Think there is
potential for things to transition over to a bit of lake
effect/enhancement on N to NW flow Wednesday.

Ice concerns...have spent the last couple hours debating this...but
finally went ahead with the ice storm warning...as latest guidance
is strongly pointing toward significant totals of freezing rain over
the next 24hrs. Primary swath of concern is northeast Lower,
particularly from Alpena/Harrisville toward Roscommon, effectively
between M-32 and M-72/M-55...where there is higher confidence in
seeing at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation. This is the area
where it seems like there is a better shot of northeasterly flow
keeping the low-levels drier and cooler below the warm nose (not to
mention the higher terrain tends to run a little cooler at the
surface anyway...and upsloping easterly flow should only encourage
that idea). Hi-res probabilistic guidance is hinting at the
potential (40 percent) for up to a half inch of ice across this
area...potentially as far south as Oscoda to West Branch. (Not gonna
lie...there is a non-zero chance of greater than 0.75in of ice,
which is unsettling to see after last year.) Think this latter idea
will be the worst case scenario, and certainly hope this does not
happen at all, let alone where we saw significant impacts from last
year`s ice storm.

HOWEVER...there are some caveats that could lower ice totals and
bust the forecast (not gonna lie again...as a human being, I`d
prefer the bust). First and foremost...the low-level cold layer
could be deep enough and/or cold enough to lead to sleet rather than
freezing rain...which is possible given some guidance soundings. It
could also be possible the low-levels don`t cool enough to support
freezing rain, particularly if things moisten up quicker than things
cool down and keep things too warm. Secondly...there is still some
uncertainty in the placement of the highest QPF swaths tonight, and
not impossible convective activity to our south robs us of better
moisture (as yesterday`s forecaster mentioned)...with some guidance
actually almost dry in the Ice Storm Warning area tonight. Think the
higher accumulations are at least in part based on the higher QPF
areas...but the brisk easterly winds tonight combined with any
liquid precip, even lighter rates, could certainly lead to ice
accumulations (this tends to be a better setup for efficient ice
accumulation). Not a straightforward forecast by any means, but have
enough confidence/concern to go ahead with the ice storm warning (as
much as we know it will freak people out...not gonna lie
again...it`s freaking me out).

Active weather ahead...no rest for the weary, and to be honest,
haven`t looked too deeply into the forecast beyond
tonight/Wednesday. But next niblet expected to dive into the area
along BCZ left from tonight`s system later Thursday into Friday with
some weaker stability aloft and some saturated layers...which
suggests a shot at a better bang for our QPF buck...and this time it
should be cold enough for all snow. This, too, should be wound
up...with breezy winds further leading to impacts along with
potential for several inches of snow across some portion of the
area. (700mb low track could be across the Tip of the Mitt, and
would focus the highest snow totals in this vicinity.)

Sunday`s system may be yet more impactful...with strong signals attm
for the BCZ to amplify again across the MS Valley/OH Valley...with
cold air to dig in behind it...and strong southwesterly flow with
Gulf moisture ahead of it... along with a potent surface low to
track across the OH Valley vicinity. Current signals support the
idea of a tightly wound surface low with ample moisture and forcing,
suggesting breezy and likely wintry conditions across some part of
the Midwest...with some lake effect possible on the backside as well
going into early next week...with convection in the warm sector. One
thing is for sure: winter is not done with us yet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Ceilings deteriorating through the evening and overnight as a
wintry mix overspreads the region. Expect CIGs to drop to MVFR
and eventually IFR at most locations with VSBYs decreasing to
1-4SM as precipitation develops. Precipitation type varying
from mainly -SN at KCIU, to mainly -RA at KMBL, with a mix in
between. The precipitation may diminish to -DZ/-FZDZ for a time
on Wednesday before precipitation re-develops during the
afternoon as -SN in most locations. Gusty east/northeast winds
tonight, backing north/northwest on Wednesday and remaining
gusty.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MIZ016>018-087-088-095>099.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MIZ020>023-025>027-031>033-036-041-042.
     Ice Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ024-028>030-
     034-035.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...JK