571
FXUS63 KAPX 280908
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
508 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Late season warmth continues through the end of September with
highs in the 70s.

-Shower chances return to the region this Wednesday and Thursday.

-High pressure returns this weekend, supporting clear skies and
 quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Water vapor imagery displays large-scale midlevel troughing
over the eastern CONUS that is associated with the northeastern
cyclone impacting New England. Even with cyclonic flow occupying
the Great Lakes Region, conditions remain quiet today as
surface high pressure remains settled over the
Wisconsin/Michigan Border. At the same time, an embedded
shortwave develops this afternoon over the Northern Rockies and
progresses towards the Midwest this week. As this wave lifts
with time and remains very moisture starved, some light
precipitation will be observed at most locations across the CWA
this Wednesday and Thursday.

After the wave continues downstream, subsidence aloft returns high
pressure this coming weekend to bring quiet conditions through the
remainder of the forecast period. Influence from cool, post frontal
Canadian air will lower temperatures back to climatological norms
beyond Thursday with highs in the 60s as we head into October.

Forecast Details:

Monday and Tuesday...Even with broad cyclonic flow aloft, dry low
level conditions supported by surface high pressure will keep
weather rain-free through Tuesday afternoon. 850mb temperatures
around 10 degrees continue to support seasonably warm temperatures
with highs in the 70s this Monday and Tuesday. The only potential
for active weather is the continuation of fog in and around marine
zones due to warm waters warmth and radiational cooling overnight
causing dew point depressions to fall.

Wednesday and Thursday...The aforementioned wave over the Northern
Rockies will develop surface low pressure over the Central U.S. and
extend a boundary through the northwoods early Wednesday through
Thursday. Profiles remain relatively dry in the mid and low levels,
meaning precipitation will struggle to reach the ground. Model
guidance continues to indicate medium to high probabilities of total
rainfall around a quarter inch for most areas of the CWA while our
westernmost areas could observe higher amounts where the frontal
boundary is expected to remain stalled, delivering some appreciable
moisture after such a long dry stretch.

Friday through Sunday Outlook... The disheveled midlevel wave is
expected to progress downstream Thursday night and return more of a
zonal flow pattern over the Great Lakes Region this weekend. Surface
high pressure builds over northern Ontario/Manitoba and begins to
influence the CWA with a cooler and dry air mass. No precipitation
is expected through the remainder of the week with temperatures
returning to climatological norms for late October (highs in the
60s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Any fog/mist will quickly burn off after sunrise, leaving behind VFR
conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies through this evening.
Another round of MVFR to IFR producing fog/mist/stratus
expected early Tuesday morning. Light winds, with local lake
breeze development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB