400
FXUS63 KAPX 301003
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
603 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mainly dry weather persists today besides a few isolated showers
across the U.P.

-High pressure supports sunny and dry weather throughout the
 entire forecast period. Only chance of measurable precipitation
 remains on Friday with scattered showers producing limited
 amounts of QPF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Broad split flow-pattern continues to encompass North America today
with multiple waves over Canada and broad midlevel ridging over the
mid to southern U.S. Subsidence aloft will support surface high
pressure today with mostly sunny skies besides a few isolated
showers across Eastern Upper supported by weak low level troughing.
The only main chance of precipitation for the entirety of the
forecast period remains on Friday as a wave currently over central
Saskatchewan progresses eastward. An attached and disheveled surface
low lifts across Hudson Bay and provides enough moisture to support
light showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to the Great Lakes
Region Friday and Saturday

Aforementioned midlevel troughing behind the frontal passage will
return below-normal temperatures this weekend followed by highs
building back to climatological normals this Monday. Broad ridging
will return surface high pressure and overall quiet weather through
the remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Today: Some low-level Cu will be observed this morning across
interior areas of the CWA but will dissipate by late morning/midday
with typical daytime heating processes. While most locations remain
mostly sunny and dry due to surface high pressure centered over
Southern Lake Michigan, a few isolated showers progress across the
Upper Peninsula this afternoon. Areas that do observe rainfall are
attempting to overcome the dry low levels, leading to a general
trace to a few hundredths expected. Temperatures remain pretty much
on par for late July across Northern Michigan with highs building to
the low to mid 80s combined with light west to northwest flow. Cloud
cover will begin to increase in the afternoon/evening from the
northwest as the approaching wave returns showers this Friday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday: Only real chance of measurable
precipitation remains on Friday night as a weak frontal boundary
sweeps across the Great Lakes Region. Latest guidance depicts
forcing and instability becoming disheveled with time. The first
wave of showers arrives overnight Thursday into Friday morning with
light amounts of QPF. The main wave of showers and storms is
expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Latest model runs
keep totals across the majority of the CWA between a few hundredths
and a quarter inch. However, embedded convection with PWATs over an
inch will likely deliver localized totals of 1.0 to 1.5 or more,
especially around the M-32 corridor. The frontal boundary will stall
just downstream of the CWA as it heads toward the east coast.
Additional rainfall will linger into Saturday, but little to no QPF
is expected after 12Z Saturday. Post frontal  temperatures have a
Canadian air mass influence Saturday and Sunday

Monday through Wednesday Outlook: Board 500mb ridging re-develops
next week, supporting subsidence aloft and overall benign weather.
Temperatures return back to climatological normals for late
July/early August with highs in the low to mid 80s through the end
of the forecast period. Long-range ensembles depict broad midlevel
troughing over Canada deepening and returning waves of energy to the
Great Lakes Region just beyond the end of the forecast period.
Chances of precipitation will likely return to the long-term
forecast beyond the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue across northern Michigan through this
evening. Winds will remain light today -- around 5 kts at most times
-- and allow for lake breeze formation to push inland this
 afternoon. Mid/high clouds look to spread overhead from west to
 east late this afternoon and evening ahead of shower chances
 returning. A few showers/storms cannot be ruled out across the
 eastern U.P. late this afternoon/evening along the lake breeze
 boundary.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC