150
FXUS63 KAPX 151806
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
206 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional shower/storm chances this week amidst increasing
  heat/ humidity. Highest precipitation chances at times Tuesday
  through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level heights are slowly rising
this afternoon across the western Great Lakes. Expansive Canadian-
originated surface high pressure is draped over Quebec/Ontario and
sagging into the western/northern Great Lakes. Not a whole lot of
change to this through the short-term forecast period, although high
pressure does slowly begin to become forced east through the day on
Monday as energy treks upstream across the northern Plains and upper
MS Valley.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
through the remainder of the day across northern Michigan with
clouds continue to gradually break up and at least partial
sunshine area-wide. Variable cloud cover tonight with lows
generally in the 50s. Current expectation is that for any
convection well upstream to remain well upstream.

For Monday, variable cloud cover expected once again with most
numerous clouds by afternoon favored for northern areas. Suppose
it`s not out of the realm of possibilities to squeeze out a rogue
shower across the U.P. during the day Monday, but think chances are
quite low. For northern lower, afternoon cu development should be
most numerous over interior areas. Inland penetrating lake breezes
may provide the impetus for an isolated shower/storm as afternoon
temperatures warm to near the convective temp into the upper 70s and
low 80s. That said, chances do look quite low (but not zero) for
this given limited deep moisture and any synoptic help still
remaining well upstream.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Monday night, northern
Michigan is expected to be sandwiched between two areas of
active weather -- to our south across parts of the OH/TN/lower
MS Valleys and to our west over the upper MS Valley and far
western Great Lakes. It`ll be the latter of the two with
potential to bring some shower/storm activity locally by late
Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond that, focus transitions to
energy emerging lee of the Rockies Tuesday afternoon before
trekking northeastward across the nation`s midsection Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Some semblance of active weather
may linger locally into Thursday with additional precip chances
returning late in the forecast period/next weekend.

Forecast Details: As was alluded to yesterday, PoPs will continue to
litter the entirety of the long-term forecast period yielding a
rather doom-and-gloom look to the forecast. That said, would expect
shower/storm chances to be mixed in amongst plenty of dry time
through the week. Only day to be considered one to watch for a
potential "washout" would be Wednesday.

By Monday evening, convection is expected to be ongoing upstream --
potentially as close as the central U.P., but more so over the
western U.P., northern WI, and arrowhead of MN. Latest trends
support some of this activity, albeit in decaying fashion, making a
run toward parts of northern MI later Monday night into Tuesday
morning with highest chances across eastern upper and far northwest
lower. Certainly not sold on this solution panning out given best
forcing splitting north and south of northern MI. Any lingering
precip activity should be very limited by Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Tuesday`s highs favored to top out in the mid-70s far
north to the mid/upper 80s in downsloping locales of northeast
lower. Higher end of this range dependent on cloud cover, but the
potential is certainly there for a hot/humid day.

Best chance for more numerous showers/storms (especially for
northern lower) arrives during the day Wednesday as deeper moisture
advects north with much more aggressive mid-level wave trekking
across the region. Primary severe weather threat continues to be
favored to our south with higher end instability really struggling
to make it this far north. Latest SPC D4 outlook keeps those 15%
severe probabilities on our southern doorstep.

Few showers may linger Thursday as the the primary mid-level wave
continues to trek across the region, but with a general drying trend
anticipated through the remainder of the work week.  Ridging builds
next weekend, but with potential for a few additional showers/storms
as a shortwave crests that ridge. If long range trends hold, the
bigger story may wind up being potential for a stretch of very warm
temperatures just beyond the end of the of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of the forecast
period. Cloud cover will begin to thin tonight for most areas
other than KCIU which is already clear. Afternoon lake breeze
processes will generate northerly winds before veering to
southeastern flow by Monday morning for KMBL and KTVC. Chances
of -SHRA for KCIU Monday afternoon along with a few convectively
driven showers across northern lower.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC