899
FXUS63 KAPX 291811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly tonight with some frost likely.

- Great looking Holiday weekend with dry conditions and steadily
warming temperatures.

- Next shot of cooler air and additional rain chances return the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Main feature of interest early this afternoon is extensive area of
northern Canada originated surface high pressure slowly building
south into the Great Lakes region. Attendant core of cold
temperature anomalies settling right across the central and eastern
Great Lakes...where H8 level temperatures are currently well down
into the single digits (downright impressive as we head into
the last days of Meteorological Summer). Those chilly just off
the deck temperatures and some limited lake response is helping
drive the development of a relatively shallow strato-cumulus
field across parts of the area. Plenty of sunshine
otherwise...which is doing its best to temper these cold
temperature anomalies...with current readings mostly in the
lower to middle 60s.

High pressure will continue to slowly build into the area, centering
itself directly overhead tonight. This high looks to dominate our
weather right through this Labor Day Weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Just how cold it gets tonight and associated frost concerns.

Details:

All systems appear just about ideal for an excellent nocturnal
temperature response tonight...with overhead high pressure bringing
clear skies and light/calm winds within an already exceptionally
chilly and dry airmass. Fully expect temperatures to quickly spiral
downward later this evening into the overnight. Will continue to
undercut even the coldest statistical guidance numbers by several
degrees...with widespread mid and upper 30s looking likely across a
good portion of the interior. Even expect some of our ice-box
locations south of the bridge to make a run into the lower 30s
(isolated upper 20s?). Unlike the last few cold nights, these chilly
readings look widespread enough to warrant a frost advisory for
select areas of northern lower Michigan.

Temperatures will quickly modify on Saturday with sun-filled skies
and as core of coldest temperatures exits off to our east. Looking
at afternoon temperatures peaking mostly in the lower 70s. While
still a few degrees below specific normal values to end August, no
doubt will feel downright comfortable given recent cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

High pressure will only slowly move off to our east...still
dominating our weather through the remainder of the Labor Day
Weekend. Almost full plethora of the mid-range deterministic and
ensemble suite support another vigorous wave dropping southeast out
of Canada toward the middle and end portions of next week...sending
another shot of chilly air and wet weather into the Northwoods.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends Sunday and Monday with secondary focus on mid and
late week shower potential with that next shot of cooler air.

Details:

Still a bit chilly Saturday Night, but continued modification of the
airmass should keep readings well above frost-producing
temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday continues to look much more
summer-like, with afternoon temperatures in the mid and upper 70s
(maybe even a few locales making a run at 80 Monday and Tuesday).
Still seeing some hints in guidance that lake breeze convergence
axes will be able to spark an isolated shower or two during the
afternoon hours. However, those that do develop showers appear much
too moist at the surface. Will continue to run with the dry and
mostly sunny/clear inherited forecast.

Significant changes still expected Wednesday and Thursday as renewed
upper level amplification across NOAM drops a rather vigorous wave
southeast out of Canada into the region. Showers (embedded
thunderstorms) will accompany this wave and its attendant cold front
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a transition to more of a lake
effect component by Thursday as temperatures continue to cool.
Speaking of those temperatures...if current trends hold...some areas
may not make it out of the 50s by Thursday. Along with that
increasing lake effect component we may see another round of
waterspouts as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Cloud cover will clear this evening resulting in clear skies
overnight into Saturday morning. Winds calm this evening across
the region but a northerly lake breeze will carry into the
early hours of the night for KTVC and KMBL. BR and patchy FG
development is expected for KCIU and KMBL between the hours of
0800Z and 1300Z. Low cu field then redevelops this Saturday but
conditions are expected to remain VFR after any morning FG
dissipates.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ017-022-
     023-027>029-032>035.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SJC