298
FXUS63 KAPX 092329
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
729 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chilly night tonight with 30s across the interior

- Showers develop Friday, gradually diminishing late Fri night
  into Saturday

- Breezy on Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Note: with a relatively widespread hard freeze this morning, we
have discontinued frost/freeze products for the season.

Pattern/synopsis: Surface high pressure over se Ontario will
continue to move eastward, toward New England. Upstream, a
surface cold front is advancing across eastern Manitoba and the
central Dakotas.

Forecast: Some diurnal cu is seen this afternoon over the
eastern UP and near Lk Huron. That will wane heading into and
thru this evening. A period of mostly clear skies and, in
eastern area, mostly clear skies will result. The pressure
gradient is more slack, and return flow weakest, in parts of n
central and ne lower MI. Min temps will back into frosty
territory in n central/ne lower MI...not as cold as this
morning, but low-mid 30s will be common.

Upstream cloud cover, ahead of the surface cold front, will
start to thicken in western/northern areas later tonight. This
is occurring in advance of vigorous/digging/closed off 500mb
shortwave, which will be over our heads by Friday evening. There
isn`t much going on with this system now, but forcing for ascent
rapidly increases here Friday with very sharp height falls
aloft. The moisture tap/availability isn`t amazing as the system
moves east, but it`s more than what it`s seeing now. With the
low level jet ramping up after sunset, showers are expected to
start developing in the warm sector, just ahead of the front,
after 00Z this evening. By daybreak Friday, perhaps a stray
shower or two could reach places west of a TVC-ANJ line. Pops
here ramp up from w to e during the day Friday, and by dusk, all
spots but the far se will see likely to categorical pops. With
rapidly cooling temps aloft in the afternoon, lapse rates will
steepen, with spotty MuCape values of 100-200j/kg. Would not
totally preclude a late-day thunderstorm. Max temps upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Consensus of the 12Z guidance stalls out the upper low over the
eastern lakes this weekend; a little further east than recently
progged. This will help conditions improve a little faster.
Friday evening will still be showery with some embedded thunder
possible. Chancy pops will hang on from there into Saturday,
especially in northern lower MI. Sunday looks quiet, with
shortwave ridging sharpening overhead. That gets flattened out
next week, with us eventually seeing shortwaves passing thru the
northern lakes. Pretty good shot at our next round of rain on
Monday, with model disagreement increasing after that. Sunday
and Monday will be warmer, with temps cooling after that.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Strong low pressure system to approach from NW to SE tonight with
strong SW flow aloft...wind shear around 1500ft from the S at 25-
35kts, likely hanging into Friday morning, but some of these winds
will start to mix down through the morning into the afternoon with a
cold front to pass through from W to E between 18z and 0z.
Surface winds look to decouple tonight and could stay SE near
or under 5kts. Expect SW winds ahead of the front to strengthen to
10-15kts after 13-15z, and switch to W and NW by 21-0z. Generally
MVFR cigs, briefly dropping to IFR or near LIFR for a few hours
during the middle of the day with the front and attendant showers.
TS possible during the day, esp from TVC north.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...FEF