074
FXUS63 KAPX 091858
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers/storms depart east through this evening.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughing is in the process
of sliding east across the western Great Lakes this afternoon.
Surface boundary that crossed north to south across the majority of
northern MI this morning will be making its exit to the south over
the next few hours. Heights begin to rise locally on Friday with
that trend continuing through early next week as impressive heat
dome builds over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West and Plains,
and eventually briefly into the western Great Lakes early next week.
While this upper high builds, a wave or two expected to ride
northwest flow on the northeastern periphery, but with little impact
locally per latest ensemble trends. Suppose active weather chances
increase toward the tail end of the forecast period mid-late next
week as long range trends support that upper high gradually
centering over the Southeast states with a return of northwest flow
locally between that upper level high and deepening troughing over
New England and the Northeast.

Forecast Details: Ongoing showers/storms early this afternoon are
most numerous across parts of north-central and northeast lower.
While the primary threats from any storms will be lightning and
locally heavy downpours, suppose a stronger storm can`t entirely be
ruled out given progged MLCAPE upwards of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~25-
30 kts deep layer shear. Locally gusty winds possible in any
stronger storms, and less of a hail threat given freezing level
above 12kft. These showers/storms should gradually exit east and
south through the early-mid evening hours with increasing
sunshine (already the case in the eastern U.P.) from northwest
to southeast through sunset. Patchy fog development expected
tonight, locally dense in spots.

Partly sunny skies anticipated Friday with high temps back near 8-
degrees area-wide. Non-zero afternoon pop up shower chance over
north-central and northeast lower, but chances far too low to
explicitly include in the forecast at this time.

Gradual warming trend continues each day this weekend into early
next week with high temps by Monday/Tuesday likely ranging from the
mid-upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. Highest probabilities for mid-
90s over downsloping northeast lower. Potential exists both Monday
and Tuesday for heat indices to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s
across parts of the forecast area. As was alluded to above, at least
low potential exists for a return to more active weather mid-late
next week, but lots of uncertainty exists around upper-level pattern
evolution and where those highest chances set up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mix of VFR (CIU) and MVFR / IFR (currently only MBL is IFR)
across the TAF sites for the moment as a front producing showers
and thunder passes through the region (currently draped right
across northern lower). Anticipating shower (all sites) and
thunder (mainly APN) potential to carry through the next 3-5
hours, with a quick improvement to VFR in the wake of the
front`s passage this afternoon into the evening. Perhaps some
redeveloping BR / FG tonight in the wake of this rain, but
otherwise, anticipating VFR to prevail through the night. Light
WSW winds turn N tonight, likely going calm overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD