672
FXUS63 KAPX 181030
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
630 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms (non-severe) tonight
  into Tuesday.

- Dry, seasonable weather Wednesday through Friday.

- Showers possible Saturday, followed by cooler temperatures
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

High pressure will keep conditions quiet and seasonable through
the day. Skies start mainly clear with an increase in mid and
high level clouds during the early afternoon as a shortwave
approaches from the Midwest. Highs look to climb into the 70s
for most areas, with lower 80s expected across favored
downsloping locations (northwest Lower today). Chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight into Tuesday as
moisture and lift increase ahead of the disturbance. Coverage
looks to be mainly scattered, but some measurable rainfall is
expected across portions of the Northwoods. Overnight lows
tonight will hold mainly in the 50s and 60s under thickening
clouds and precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The shortwave and associated weak surface reflection look to
cross the region Tuesday, bringing the best chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms through the very early morning and into
the afternoon. Instability remains limited, so severe weather is
not expected, but localized heavy downpours could be possible.
Highs Tuesday will be largely in the 70s. High pressure then
quickly builds in by Wednesday, setting the stage for a stretch
of quiet weather through the end of the work week. Mostly sunny
skies and seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s are
forecasted Wednesday through Friday, with overnight lows mainly
in the 50s (perhaps some 40s mixed in Wednesday night and
Thursday night). Another disturbance may bring a chance for
showers or a storm Saturday, before cooler Canadian air filters
in behind for Sunday. Highs to end the weekend look to only
reach the upper 60s to low 70s, with a few lingering showers
possible and nighttime lows dipping into the 40s/ 50s Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Occasionally breezy southeast winds today with isolated shower chances
arriving from the west, mainly after 18z (although a brief
shower is possible at MBL early this morning). Showers expected
to expand in coverage late this afternoon through tonight with
low chances for embedded thunderstorms. CIGs trending toward
MVFR very late tonight (after 09z) at all terminals except APN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ017-018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LMZ341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MJG