350
FXUS63 KAPX 121038
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
638 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain spreads across the region today with showers lingering into
Wednesday.

-Seasonably warmer weather builds later this week with
 additional rounds of showers and storms next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

The midlevel longwave troughing regime that locked the northwoods in
with cold cP air influence has shifted its axis over the mouth of
the St. Lawrence. Warmer low-level temperatures begin to advect into
the Great Lakes Region pivoting mid-May into a seasonably warmer
pattern. At the same time, midlevel shortwave troughing currently
positioned over the Northern Plains will continue to dig across the
Upper Midwest this evening through Wednesday. Surface low pressure
spreads showers across the area with embedded convection for the
next 24-36 hours before departing to the northeast Wednesday
evening.

Upstream ridging will eventually return subsidence aloft and dry
things across the region. Surface high pressure will keep conditions
quiet this Thursday as temperatures slowly build toward near
climatological normals at the end of the week. A few isolated
showers remain possible this Friday as a trough and attached low
over central Canada extends a boundary southward, but the majority
of the week will remain dry after the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The
next chance of widespread precipitation remains around the
Monday/Tuesday timeframe next week as long-range ensembles depict a
low developing lee of the American Rockies and lifting through the
Upper Midwest.

Forecast Details:

Showers spread today through Wednesday... Atmospheric conditions
remain dry as upper-level profiles become saturated. Virga will
likely persist this morning before the entire column is saturated
and observational rainfall spreads by late morning/early afternoon.
Latest high-resolution guidance depicts the frontal boundary
occluding across Northern Michigan, which indicates the leading edge
of rain will be stratiform, followed by a quick pause in
precipitation before more convective-driven showers follow this
evening. Model soundings remain conditionally unstable with enough
energy to produce some embedded thunder tonight. Backside low-level
moisture will continue some lingering precipitation Wednesday
morning, but little to no additional QPF is expected after 12z
Wednesday as upper level subsidence scours out moisture. Rainfall
totals remain between a general 0.20" to half inch for the entire
event.

Seasonably warmer temperatures slowly build through the remainder of
the forecast period with periodic shower chances... The
aforementioned upstream shortwave ridge will briefly return to
surface high pressure and clear skies this Thursday. H8 temperatures
currently near freezing will warm into the single digits by the end
of the week, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s for most areas. Ensembles show a relatively tight thermal
gradient at the end of the week, which could cause a wide range of
temperatures around the Friday/Saturday timeframe between the upper
50s to upper 70s. Long range guidance this weekend depicts a few
waves of energy continuing rounds of precipitation this weekend into
early next week. Another shortwave develops early next week lee of
the Rockies and makes its way the the midwest around the Monday
timeframe. Favorable jet dynamics and dew points surging into the
60s could generate some stronger storms and potentially impactful
weather for northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this morning. Rain
is expected to arrive from west to east this morning across western
terminals, eventually spreading across the remainder of northern
MI into the afternoon. Additional showers and perhaps a few
storms will be possible later this afternoon and evening. CIGs
will lower with the arrival of rain chances, likely becoming
IFR across the eastern U.P. and far northern lower during the
afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected across most of the remainder
of the area. Probabilities for LIFR CIGs increase across parts
of northern MI later tonight. Otherwise, winds will increase
out of the south-southeast this morning with sustained wind
speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts into the evening.
Winds turn out of the west-northwest by 12z Wednesday,
remaining breezy.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG