536
FXUS63 KAPX 091742
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow today with a general 1 to 3 inches of
  additional snow for most.

- Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday.

- Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Short wave and subsequent frontal boundary will move eastward
through northern MI today, resulting in widespread accumulating
snow. General thinking is for 1 to 3 inches throughout a majority of
the region during the day today (heavier amounts across west Mack
this morning), quickly diminishing from west to east through the
afternoon hours. Low pressure system to our north will tighten the
pressure gradient across the area, especially early in the day,
resulting in periods of blowing snow in spots. Given the southerly
winds and the falling/already accumulated snow across portions of
western Mack early in the morning, significant blowing and drifting
snow will be possible across US-2.

Next trough will be right on this systems heels, as it dives to the
southeast across the Upper Midwest through tonight. Response will be
a sfc low pressure that moves across MN, WI, and the eastward into C-
S MI. Consequently, accumulating snow will begin to spread across
northern lower MI tonight on the northern side of this system. Read
on for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Day 2-3 (Wednesday - Thursday):

As previously mentioned, short wave dives to the southeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday with subsequent low pressure system across the
central - southern portions of MI. Still some subtle differences
within the model guidance on the exact handling/phasing of the mid
levels, which ultimately influences the low level height and sfc
pressure fields. Consensus between between the GFS and ECMWF
suggests a track across southern portions of MI, which would shift
the QPF and subsequent heaviest snows a little to the south.
Meanwhile, other pieces of guidance are a little farther north
across central MI which would bring the accumulating snows farther
northward. When investigating the ECMWF ENS MSLP low positions,
there is still considerable spread in low pressure track, or how the
low level height fields are being processed, at this time scale. One
thing is for certain at this time, northern lower is at play for the
steadiest snows, and especially south of M-32. Feel most comfortable
with M-72 on southward for an advisory, based on some of the
ensemble output with the highest probs for >3". This will likely be
a ~2-6" snow event for our neck of the woods for the advisory
locations.

This system will quickly move to the east later Wednesday with
northwest flow and cold advection in its wake. Thus, expect a
transition to northwest flow lake effect snow showers later
Wednesday into Thursday. Global guidance not spitting out a whole
lot of QPF at this time, but the northwest snow belts will remain
wintry through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Accumulating snow continues to move across northern Michigan
the next couple hours with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as snow moves
over terminals. A brief lull in precipitation is expected this
afternoon, potentially improving and/or holding conditions at
MVFR with low VFR on the table by late this evening, especially
APN. However, most sites look to hold MVFR CIGs for most of the
issuance period as another round of widespread accumulating snow
moves in tonight and Wednesday. An additional several inches of
snow is expected across much of northern lower Michigan,
including TVC and MBL. Otherwise, gusty south winds will
continue to gradually turn west and weaken this evening, then
strengthen Wednesday with occasional gusts 20-25 knots possible
across all terminals.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ020-025-031-098.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC