329
FXUS63 KAPX 281947
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
247 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow winds down tonight
- Widespread snow with hazardous travel Saturday night and
  Sunday
- More snow chances next week with below normal temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Our long duration and impressive lake effect event will wind
down tonight as the deepest moisture gradually pulls east and we
briefly bring low amplitude ridging into the area. As the
gradient continues to relax, boundary layer winds will slowly
back more westerly tonight, focusing the lake effect more toward
the M-32 corridor in northern lower. Additional accumulations
will be fairly minor (in relation to what has already occurred),
with amounts in the 1-2" range as the winds back.  With snow
cover in many areas, lows dipping into the teens over interior
areas (near single digits in a few areas possible).

Snow lovers rejoice, the next snow system  over the central Plains
will begin to push toward the southern lakes on Saturday. Clouds
will thicken up throughout the day with isentropic upglide
increasing mid to late afternoon and snow spreading into
southwest parts of the area. Forecast soundings show a deep
moisture profile with excellent forcing through the DGZ, making
for an efficient snow producer.

Headlines: Canceled all the headlines associated with our
current lake effect snow event and then issued a new advisory
for all of northern Michigan for later Saturday into Sunday.
See discussion below on a few areas that may push up close to
warning criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low pressure moves quickly through the southern lakes Saturday night
into Sunday producing a widespread swath of snow for all of
northern Michigan.  With PWAT`s between 0.30" and 0.40" and
consistent forcing throughout the period, this looks like a
general 4-7" snow event for most areas. Going a little "old
school", the heaviest snow will likely fall along and just
north/northwest of the H8 low track, which places the heaviest
snow across central/southern Michigan, possibly touching far
southern parts of our CWA (M-55 corridor and south). The snow
amounts will taper off toward the Tip of the Mitt into eastern
upper, except for eastern parts of Mackinac/Chippewa Counties.
Persistent southeast flow will likely provide a nice boost to
snow totals from Cedarville to De Tour and Drummond Island. That
southeast flow may also enhance snowfall totals in far
northeast lower between Rogers City and Alpena. It is in these
areas where storm totals may get close to warning criteria. The
widespread snow will gradually wind down by Sunday afternoon
with a transition to lake effect snow which will continue into
Monday.

Beyond this, the pattern remains active with another system bringing
more snow chances midweek.  All in all, a very wintry pattern across
northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

NW to WNW lake effect snow bands to continue through evening.
Greatest impacts (visbys less than 2SM) for CIU, PLN, and possibly
APN. Winds to largely diminish overnight; snow showers should
diminish and shift more W/SW with time though some better bands
could develop offshore, esp if flow goes light enough for offshore
flow. Winds to turn SE around 12z as next system approaches from the
Plains; incoming moisture (deck around 7-11kft) should boost
lingering snow showers some toward early morning...with more
widespread snow chances entering from SW to NE around late
morning/midday...esp later in the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-036-086>088-095>099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for MIZ020-021-025>028-031>035-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...FEF