647
FXUS63 KAPX 121823
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
223 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower/storm chances thru early this evening,
  marginal severe risk southeast.

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend, especially Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Upper ridge currently extending through the Northern Plains
with downstream west/northwest flow aloft across the Great
Lakes. The primary instability axis remains well to our south
associated with a quasi-stationary boundary, with a weaker
secondary instability axis further north from Saginaw Bay
westward into southern parts of our CWA. The upper ridge will
gradually shift east into this weekend, flattening out with time
as northern stream shortwave energy rides over the top.

Expect at least a few (scattered?) showers/storms into early
this evening, with inland penetrating lake breeze boundaries and
a diffuse surface trough axis providing the primary focus for
storms. Some storm organization is possible given favorable 0-6km
bulk shear. 1000-850mb low level convergence signals target
areas east of I-75 and south of M-32, with the best parameters
for severe storms closer to Saginaw Bay where deeper moisture
and instability reside. The main storm threat would be wind and
possibly larger hail. This activity should dissipate fairly
quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog once again
tonight.

Fairly benign weather Thursday and Friday with increasing influence
of somewhat drier and more stable air, as high pressure builds in
from the northwest.  This high slips east of the Great Lakes over
the weekend, creating a more moisture rich environment with
developing return flow.  This will allow a stronger shortwave and
associated surface low to push into the Great Lakes, resulting in
better shower/storm chances.  Recent model runs have slowed a bit,
now pushing the best precipitation chances toward Saturday night and
possibly the first part of Sunday.  Locally heavy rain a
possibility, with a surge of 2"+ PWATs into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures running close to normal for the weekend into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A few SHRA/TSRA possible, though not confident in direct impacts to
taf sites and have carried VCSH/VCTS. Best chance for TS likely APN
and points south toward OSC/Y31. Think we could have a similar
idea to last night; that is, fog likely esp at MBL toward HTL
but could see fog and IFR/LIFR cigs and/or visbys at any site
that gets rain this afternoon. Also not impossible another
cluster of TS could drift toward MBL late tonight/Thurs AM but
not confident in this attm. Winds generally light/vrb with
lake/land breezes but could be gustier with storms.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...FEF