682
FXUS63 KAPX 041129
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow across the E UP comes to an end through the day.

- Another shot for accumulating snow later tonight into early Friday,
  main focus across E UP.

- Periodic shots of cold air and lake enhanced snow chances
  heading into the weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Vigorous upper trough will continue to dig to the east today with
time, first across the northern Great Lakes this morning, then east
across Quebec through the rest of the day. Accumulating lake effect
snow showers will continue for the E UP today, especially as the
upper trough digs to the southeast and convergence shifts southward
during the first half of the day. Next piece of energy to riddle the
forecast with snow will be a quick moving short wave and
associated low pressure system across Ontario later tonight. As
this system approaches, southwest flow will diminish any
northwest lake effect.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating Snow:

Lake effect snow showers will continue across the eastern UP early
today. There will be a period this morning and midday with
accumulating snows for northern portions of Chippewa county, as the
better convergence drifts southward. Thus, an additional ~1-4
inches of snow will be possible across northern Chipp, highest
amounts likely within a narrow NNW to SSE oriented band within
the vicinity of the SOO. Cold low level temperature profiles may
result in lesser accumulations for a period, but potential for
significant visibility reductions for the morning commute.
Shifting winds will end the northwest lake effect through the
afternoon hours.

Combination of short wave aloft and warm advection will result in a
little burst of snowfall later tonight into the early portions of
Friday. Best lower level convergence and upper lift will be across
the eastern UP, with a couple of inches possible (~1-3"). Breezy
conditions will remain as well and thus poor vsbys will be possible
due to falling and patchy blowing snow.

Cold Temperatures:

Cold temperatures are expected this morning, and tonight as well.
Values drop into the teens and single digits for most, with even
lower wind chill values. Expect apparent temperatures to be below
zero for many this morning, close to zero tonight. Actual air temps
little tricky tonight with southerly flow in advance of the next
system. Might be a deal where the sheltered, interior locations
see single digits with teens for coastal locations, esp near
lake MI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):

Short wave and warm advection induced snows will continue early on
Friday, replaced to some extent by another short wave farther south
moving across LM and C-S MI later in the day and into the
night. This will result in more snow showers across northern MI,
emphasis on the lake effect and enhancement regions of
northwest lower and eastern upper. Not a huge signal for
significant impacts, with likely just some lighter snowfall
amounts (a few inches) and snow showers through the day on
Friday and Saturday.

Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):

Another upper trough descends upon the great white north of Ontario
later this weekend with another shot of cold air and thus lake
enhanced/effect snows. Perhaps slightly more notable will be the
overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning with
single digits expected, with some of the cold spots possibly dipping
below zero. NBM hinting at this possibility with low probs (10-40%)
for at or below zero low temperatures across the interior in
northern lower (other statistical guidance, namely MEX, has GOV
at a bitter -10F).

Another trough looks to dive down across the Great Lakes region
sometime early to mid next week with another shot for snow. Quick
and dirty long range look suggests the potential for at least a
couple inches of lake enhanced snow, but that will ultimately depend
on the location and orientation of the trough as our wintry
period continues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Heavy lake effect snow is expected to work into CIU at times through
the morning, reducing VSBYs to IFR/LIFR over the next several hours
before the band eventually tapers off this afternoon. Much weaker
lake effect snow showers south of the bridge will also diminish
through the morning hours and are unlikely to result in categorical-
change VSBY reductions at northern lower TAF sites. While most sites
are currently VFR, CIGs look to continue to improve across the area
throughout the day. Gusty northwest winds will weaken temporarily as
they turn to west winds this afternoon, and quickly increase again
out of the southwest tonight. Snow chances return to the eastern
U.P. and far northern lower late in the issuance period, likely
reducing CIGs and VSBYs at CIU prior to 12Z Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ086-
     087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC