587
FXUS63 KAPX 250647
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
247 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/severe line of storms expected this morning. Primary
  hazard will be damaging winds. Large hail and localized heavy
  rainfall also possible.

- Conditions begin to dry as surface high pressure builds this Wednesday
  through the first half of the long term. Chances of showers
  return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong jet/low-amplitude shortwave will continue to punch across
the Upper Midwest and over the Great Lakes this morning/afternoon as
more pronounced upper troughing digs into the region later tonight.
Parent cyclone associated with forcing aloft will work across James
Bay into Quebec today as the attendant front swings across the Great
Lakes. Relatively high surface pressure is expected to temporarily
build in later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Forecast Details:

Strong/severe storms this morning -- Primary forecast concern over
the next several hours will be a line of strong/severe thunderstorms
currently organizing across northern Wisconsin, with additional
storms out ahead of this line working over Lake Michigan. While
model guidance has struggled to handle the evolution of these
storms, current confidence is that storms will trek ESE through the
early morning hours along a gradient of elevated buoyancy extending
over into mid-Michigan. Highest severe potential appears to lie west
of Lake Michigan as these storms will encounter an increasingly
unfavorable environment with eastward extent, especially over Lake
Michigan and into the CWA where only a few hundred joules of MUCAPE
may be in place ahead of these storms. Regardless, a sufficiently
organized line of storms should carry enough momentum to bring
damaging winds to parts of northern Michigan through early/mid
morning -- and a severe thunderstorm watch has been coordinated with
SPC to highlight this threat through 9AM at this time. Best chances
for severe wind gusts will come across northwest lower Michigan in
closer proximity to the lakeshores and is expected to diminish
further inland. Large hail will also be possible early this morning,
primarily with ongoing activity currently over Lake Michigan that
lies ahead of the main line of storms still draped across northern
Wisconsin. Tornado threat appears low at this time given lack of
surface-based instability/low-level convective inhibition. There are
also low chances for a localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding
threat this morning as these storms work across northwest lower.
Quick rainfall of 1-2" per hour may lead to some impacts in city
locations this morning. Otherwise, rain/thunder chances are largely
expected to end by late morning/early afternoon with clearing of
skies and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Midlevel jet maxima spanning across the U.S/Canadian boarder with
embedded height disturbances will continue active weather at times
this week. Shortwave troughing currently north of the Upper Midwest
will be occupying the Great Lakes region at the start of the
forecast period. Conditions begin to dry through the midweek ahead
of an additional trough returning chances of showers/storms towards
the end of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Conditions begin to dry as surface high pressure builds this
Wednesday through the first half of the long term. Chances of
showers return this weekend: A few isolated showers remain possible
Wednesday mainly due to some lingering moisture behind the cold
front at the start of the long term. Overall, weather remains
pretty quiet as upstream longwave midlevel ridge pushes a cool and
dry airmass into the Great Lakes region. Besides Wednesday being a
little chilly in the 60s, daytime highs will remain around
climatological average for the entirety of the forecast period.
Chances of showers and storms return around the Friday/Saturday
timeframe as a shortwave trough currently pivoting around midlevel
low pressure north of Hudson Bay progresses southward. Still a
little too early to messages details, but current ensembles show no
evidence of widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A round of thunderstorms is expected to impact the area after
09Z, pushing quickly e and se across the area. Brief but
significant restrictions along with gusty winds will be
possible, with the best chance at MBL and TVC. Some lower cigs
will linger for several hours after precip ends, with gradual
improvement on Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LHZ349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ