171
FXUS63 KAPX 021939
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy fog overnight.

- Continued smoke issues Sunday.

- Dry to start the week (and may still have issues with smoke).

- Looking warm for midweek...next chance of rain maybe Thursday?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Great Lakes downstream of a broad upper
level ridge across much of western North America...a pretty "dirty"
ridge with a number of disturbances caught within.  Gradual height
rises over the preceding days have nudged stronger westerlies away
from the region.  Low level anticyclone over Wisconsin with warm
advection to the north across Manitoba/Ontario...1031mb surface high
from the upper Midwest and across Wisconsin/Michigan.  Deep layer
northerly component flow above the boundary layer continues to pull
a substantial layer of wildfire smoke out of northern
Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

No major changes in the overall pattern through Sunday...surface
high pressure lies west-east across the Great Lakes with weak
anticyclonic flow aloft.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Some patchy fog overnight: Smoky skies expected to continue tonight
but being transparent to longwave radiation won`t have an impact on
overnight lows (as we have seen the past two nights).  Mid afternoon
temperature-dew point spreads are not outrageously large especially
across eastern Upper and along the northwest Lower shoreline
counties.  So patchy fog development expected again overnight as low
temperatures expected to drop below crossover temperatures.

Continued smoke issues Sunday: Mostly stagnant air mass likely leads
to another afternoon of some pretty thick smoke overhead.  Have
played around with the forecast wording so that it comes out as haze
and not patchy/areas of smoke which is more apt way to describe what
is/will be happening (i.e., sunny with patchy smoke wording makes it
sounding like a blue sky day with some smoke rather than the milky
white "overcast" we saw today and will likely see tomorrow).  EGLE
has already extended the Air Quality Advisory out another day.
Thicker smoke has also been a bit of a drag on temperatures this
afternoon (since it is not transparent to short wave solar
radiation)...but highs Sunday should be at least at climatological
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Days 2-3 (Monday-Tuesday): Still not a lot of change to the overall
pattern...though some weakness in the height field moves into the
nation`s midsection.  Remnants of a weakening cold front will slip
into northern Michigan Sunday night but looks to have minimal impact
at this point.  Overall the Monday-Tuesday time frame still trending
dry along with a bit of a warming trend as we start to get a bit
more of a southerly component to the boundary layer flow especially
on Tuesday.  Given the weak flow aloft will probably still have to
be concerned about wildfire smoke issues at least on Monday...may
get a switch to more southwesterly flow aloft Tuesday ahead of
aforementioned height pattern weakness upstream.

Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday): Slowly evolving falling heights will
eventually approach the upper Lakes beyond midweek...along with a
more substantial increase in southerly return flow around high
pressure over New England.  This may finally bring at least some
threat for precipitation by Thursday though the consensus forecast
PoPs are still below 30 percent.  But this return flow will keep the
warm temperature trend ongoing as well especially if cloud cover
behaves itself...increasing probabilities of highs exceeding 90F
both Wednesday and Thursday.

Days 6-7 Outlook (Friday-Saturday):  Warm trend still looks locked
in for the start of next week...along with probabilities of above
normal precipitation though wonder if the latter half of the weekend
will be more problematic when it comes to rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Stout area of Canadian surface high pressure remains in firm
control across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.
Minimal cloud cover expected over the next 18 hours, with light
winds (some of which are generated by lake breezes. Normally a
recipe for crystal clear skies, but that is not the case. Thick
plume of Canadian wildfire smoke pivoting overhead, and with
lots of FU and HZ overhead, has lowered VSBYs to 6SM in several
places. Anticipating this plume remains confined aloft for the
rest of the daytime hours, before HZ becomes concentrated in the
low levels with nocturnal inversions materializing. As such,
anticipating the usual FG problem sites (MBL and perhaps PLN) to
drop to MVFR, perhaps even IFR, later tonight before VSBYs
improve back to VFR with time Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...HAD