125
FXUS63 KAPX 071747
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty shower/ thunderstorm chances today with periodic
  chances continuing into early next week.

- Temperatures trend near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An active pattern remains in place through the weekend and into
early next week, although precipitation chances will come in
several waves rather than a continuous period of rain. A weak
mid- level disturbance may be enough to squeeze out a few
showers or thunderstorms early this morning, but coverage should
remain fairly limited with any showers fighting a pretty dry
profile. Additional destabilization this afternoon will support
another chance for scattered thunderstorms, mainly across
northeast Lower. Large-scale forcing remains weak, so continue
thinking that any development will likely be tied to localized
convergence and lake breeze boundaries. With any storms that do
develop this afternoon, they could squeak out some small hail
and some gusty winds as they pulse.

Attention then turns to a cold front expected to move through
tonight into Saturday morning, bringing the best opportunity for
a more organized band of showers and thunderstorms. Rain
chances should gradually diminish Saturday afternoon before
another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives late Saturday
night into Sunday as deeper moisture and upper-level support
increase once again.

The pattern turns wetter early next week as a frontal boundary
stalls south of the Great Lakes while several disturbances move
through the broader flow. This should bring better chances for
more widespread rainfall Monday into at least part of Tuesday,
with some potential for locally heavier rainfall, especailly
across northern Lower. WPC currently advertising a Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall as a result. While a lot of the finer
details need to be worked out, the overall signal for a wetter
start to the week has remained fairly consistent. Broad
troughing over the region will keep temperatures near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Precipitation is expected to track across Michigan`s Eastern
Upper Peninsula tonight. -SHRA will pass across KCIU this
evening, followed by CIGs lowing to MVFR and IFR mainly between
0600Z and 1200Z Saturday. The remainder of TAF sites are not
expected to observe rainfall, but CIGs will lower to MVFR during
the overnight hours. Cloud cover will dissipate this Saturday,
returning all locations to VFR by the end of the forecast
period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LMZ344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...SJC