049
FXUS63 KAPX 230628
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
228 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High pressure continues seasonably normal fall-like temperatures
built this week with no precipitation expected through the remainder
of the week.

-Chilly overnight low temperatures keep patchy frost concerns
 this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

There is not much active weather to report for this forecast cycle
as a midlevel split flow pattern with a classic high over low
blocking set up will keep conditions quiet across the Great Lakes
Region the next several days. 500mb ridging with its axis over
northern Ontario will support surface high pressure to influence the
Northwoods and keep weather mostly sunny and rain-free. H8
temperatures are currently in the single digits and will warm along
the dry adiabats this afternoon, keeping highs in the mid-60s for
most locations. The only impactful weather to watch for will be
continued chilly overnight lows tonight through the end of the week.
Efficient radiational cooling overnight with clear skies will lead
to minimum temperatures in the upper 30s for most areas. Localized
areas and typically colder locations across the CWA (interior and
elevated terrain) will produce frost and pockets of temperatures
falling into the low 30s. Confidence of frost headlines remains low
as frost will likely remain patchy/isolated.

Long range ensembles introduce some low end chances of rainfall as
an embedded shortwave develops over the Central Plains and lifts
across the Great Lakes Region next week. Again, chances remain low
as jet dynamics depict this wave lifting while remaining very
moisture starved. Showers will likely dissipate with time as it
approaches the CWA, but we will continue to monitor rain potential
as this is the first chance of precipitation after several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Only concern is potential for a period of mist a KAPN early this
overnight, as well as some low level wind shear tonight at KPLN,
KTVC, and KMBL. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue under
mostly clear/sunny skies. East to southeast surface winds,
becoming a bit gusty at times on Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ086-087-095-
     096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB