372
FXUS63 KAPX 011026
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
626 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally warm and quiet; isolated showers possible this afternoon

- Autumn returns with force late week behind a strong cold front,
bringing heavy rain concerns Wednesday.

- Watching frost (freeze?) potential for late week...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging generally hanging on across the western and southern
US...with better moisture trapped across the southern Plains. Better
bit of moisture stretches from central Canada beneath bubble of
ridging over Ontario...through the Northern Plains...and down into
the SE US. Troughing still trying to hold on across the East
Coast...though the upper low is finally beginning to depart the
northeast; bit of energy still hangs out near VA though. General
surface high pressure across the bulk of the CONUS, including the
Upper Great Lakes, though some niblets and attendant moisture
rotating E-W through the (weak) flow acting as a little bit of a fly
in the ointment of otherwise beautiful Labor Day weekend weather
across the region. Much more progressive flow across northern Canada
attm...with a series of cold fronts stretching across the Prairie
Provinces.

Upper ridging and attendant surface high pressure to hold on across
the Midwest today...generally keeping things quiet for Labor Day.
Result overall should be a pleasant day with light winds, lake
breezes off the Great Lakes in the afternoon, and seasonable
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s; a few of the typical warm
spots could creep up into the lower 80s...feeling quite a bit more
summerlike than some of the days last week did, even as we move into
meteorological fall. Not out of the question a rogue shower or two
could pop up along the lake breeze this afternoon, but most areas
will stay dry.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Rogue showers today?...Looking at some signals for lake breeze
convergence and better moisture across NW Lower today, and perhaps
the EUP again. Not expecting convection to become terribly deep, as
it isn`t terribly cool aloft attm...and is overall rather dry
(minimum afternoon RHs expected to be in the 30s inland)...which
should limit upward extent...though a few of the most vigorous
showers could have some rumbles of thunder. Nothing severe expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Days 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday)...

Tuesday should be the last of the warm and pleasant days...as upper
ridging and surface high pressure slowly begin to give way to the
influences of developing upstream system over central Canada. Some
better signals starting to show up for afternoon showers Tuesday,
especially across NE Lower. Think there is a better shot at thunder
this time, with signals hinting at slightly cooler midlevels to
support slightly better instability...and there are some signals for
a bit of PV to pivot back toward NE Lower in the afternoon, which
could give a boost to convection as well.

Potent shortwave trough dives southeastward across central Canada
late Tuesday...reaching the region by Wednesday. Current expectation
is for attendant surface system to occlude to our north Wednesday,
dragging a cold front across the region as the upper trough swings
through going into Wednesday night. Looking like we will be quite
saturated through the column, with potential for pwats (up over an
inch again) around the top end of climo as we have better forcing
roll through. Think that we will have a decent shot at a swath of
better rainfall again...with some probabilistic guidance hinting at
24-hr rainfall totals of over an inch (30-40 percent chance) by
Thursday morning. Thunder is possible with this, though think a
better shot of this may be late Wednesday night/Thursday morning
with a potential dry slot, where convective instability would be
maximized.

Days 4-7 (Thursday-Sunday)...

Anomalous troughing (return interval...1/10+years) to dive into the
Upper Great Lakes for the latter half of the week...bringing another
round of cold and fall-like weather to the region, reinforced at
times by additional energy dropping in, particularly Friday, when it
appears another system should track through the region...keeping
things unsettled/wet, chilly, and breezy through the first weekend
of September. Will look for something of a repeat of last week`s
cool/unsettled weather, though potential for breezier conditions
this time may not be quite as favorable for waterspouts as last
week...but will need to keep an eye on this as we get closer. At the
very least...with signals for the 0C line at 850mb to make a swipe
at northern Michigan...expect we will need to keep a close eye on
frost/freeze concerns for the latter half of the week into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Patchy FG/BR has developed over the past few hours across parts of
northern Michigan, specifically impacting CIU and MBL. Significant
VSBY reductions at these sites will remain possible through 12Z.
FG/BR will begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR
conditions in place at all TAF sites through this evening. Weak
south-southeast winds will allow for lake breeze formation to push
inland from the lakeshores this afternoon. Patchy FG/BR development
will be possible again tonight with CIU and MBL most likely to be
impacted with IFR/LIFR conditions again.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC