667
FXUS63 KAPX 031104
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
604 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Additional snowfall chances continue today through Monday.

-Warmer weather builds Tuesday - Friday. Widespread high
temperatures above freezing.

-Weak surface low pressure progresses through the Midwest by the end
of the work week, resulting in scattered rain shower chances with
localized convection this Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis...Broad midlevel troughing continues to occupy all
of Canada while digging south into the northeastern U.S. Cold cP and
cA air mass continue to keep temperatures well below freezing this
weekend. Embedded height disturbances and surface level lake
aggregate troughing will continue a couple rounds of snowfall
through the entirety of the short term until low amplitude ridging
builds from the south and returns milder temperatures this week.

Forecast Details...

Today...Snowfall begins to spread across the CWA this morning as a
weak/somewhat disorganized clipper tracks eastward. Conditions such
as weak low level winds, a lack of any strong moisture advection,
and weak lapse rates from model soundings are very indicative of
only minor amounts of QPF through today. A general inch or so of
snowfall is expected for the majority of locations west of I-75
while the southeast parts of the CWA will likely only observe a
tenth or two by this evening. Higher totals of 2-3" for localized
areas of Antrim, Charlevoix, Kalkaska, and Otsego counties by this
evening is expected due to lake enhancement and topographic lift
while a narrow band of F-gen near and north of Chippewa County will
produce totals around 3" inches near Paradise/Whitefish Point.

Tonight...Light northwest flow behind the clipper with sufficient
delta T`s over water will continue lake effect snow for the typical
northwest flow snowbelts. Just like today, a lack of synoptic
support with relatively dry low to mid levels will keep additional
totals relatively low. Another general trace to a few tenths of
light 20:1 snow is anticipated for most areas across the snowbelts
while the typically snow belt counties of northern lower and eastern
upper will likely observe an additional inch or two. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Sunday and Monday...Condtions during the day Sunday turn pretty
quiet as surface high pressure builds across the region. Subsidence
aloft will scour out any lingering LES showers/flurries. At the same
time, an embedded midlevel trough will aid in developing a clipper
lee of the Canadian Rockies. Snow will progress eastward, making its
way to the Great Lakes region overnight Sunday night through Monday.
Current guidance continues to keep probabilities high of a
widespread swath of Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall and even
localized areas of northern lower with medium to high probs (40-60%)
of 4"+ during a roughly 12 hour period. Still a little too early for
exact accumulations, but confidence continues to grow that most of
the CWA can expect impactful snow at the start of the work week.

Tuesday through Friday Outlook...Midlevel heights begin to increase
as more mild weather builds into the Midwest. Mild ridging pattern
across the CONUS will support overall quiet weather and seasonably
warm surface temperatures with highs climbing into the mid/upper 30s
for most areas. A few scattered rain/snow shower chances remain
possible as height disturbances progress eastward, but chances of
widespread precip remain low until the Friday timeframe as a frontal
boundary tracks across the region. Warm air advection will push
temperatures into the 40s with enough moisture and instability to
support widespread light rainfall and low probs of scattered
convection. Midlevel toughing behind the system will likely return
seasonably normal temperatures beyond the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Sunday and Monday...Condtions during the day Sunday turn pretty
quiet as surface high pressure builds across the region. Subsidence
aloft will scour out any lingering LES showers/flurries. At the same
time, an embedded midlevel trough will aid in developing a clipper
lee of the Canadian Rockies. Snow will progress eastward, making its
way to the Great Lakes region overnight Sunday night through Monday.
Current guidance continues to keep probabilities high of a
widespread swath of Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall and even
localized areas of northern lower with medium to high probs (40-60%)
of 4"+ during a roughly 12 hour period. Still a little too early for
exact accumulations, but confidence continues to grow that most of
the CWA can expect impactful snow at the start of the work week.

Tuesday through Friday Outlook...Midlevel heights begin to increase
as more mild weather builds into the Midwest. Mild ridging pattern
across the CONUS will support overall quiet weather and seasonably
warm surface temperatures with highs climbing into the mid/upper 30s
for most areas. A few scattered rain/snow shower chances remain
possible as height disturbances progress eastward, but chances of
widespread precip remain low until the Friday timeframe as a frontal
boundary tracks across the region. Warm air advection will push
temperatures into the 40s with enough moisture and instability to
support widespread light rainfall and low probs of scattered
convection. Midlevel toughing behind the system will likely return
seasonably normal temperatures beyond the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Light snow showers at CIU continue this morning before a weak
clipper system brings more widespread light snow this afternoon
through early evening. Conditions expected to drop from MVFR to
IFR at times in steadier snow. Lingering lake effect snow
showers expected in the wake of this system tonight. Generally
light west-northwest to northwest winds expected through the
entirety of the TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG