711
FXUS63 KAPX 061931
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow chances continue at times through the weekend.

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.

- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later
Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.

- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing remains situated over the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with continued lake
effect snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior. Upstream, an
embedded mid-level impulse is trekking across the Dakotas, which
will become the focus for additional widespread light snow across
northern lower Michigan late tonight into Sunday. By late in the day
Sunday, ~1032mb high pressure begins to press in the from the west
setting the stage for a very cold Sunday night/Monday morning.

Forecast Details: Mainly light to locally moderate lake effect
snow showers continue across northern lower this afternoon with
localized additional accumulation of up to a half inch or so
across northwest lower and the tip of the mitt. Farther north
across northern Chippewa County, better banding has been in and
out of the area for much of the day -- and remains the area
where a localized additional inch or two remains possible
through this evening, especially from near Paradise to the Soo.

By this evening, aforementioned embedded shortwave expected to be
upstream with its sights set on southern MI for late tonight into
Sunday morning. Latest trends still favor a general 1-3" of
light/fluffy snow, mainly south of a line from Petoskey to Rogers
City, before this system exits from west to east mid-Sunday morning
through midday. Some localized 1-3" amounts also possible near
Whitefish Pt as lake effect continues to percolate off of Lake
Superior. As noted by the previous forecast, light winds through
much of the event should yield land breeze processes and potential
for convergent snow bands/meso vortex generation. Expectation
remains for these features to stay offshore, but will probably wind
up being a nowcast thing to monitor their movement for any
potentially locally heavier snows near the lakeshores.

Some scattered lake induced snow showers remain possible through
Sunday afternoon/early evening -- most numerously across parts of
Chippewa County and northwest lower. High pressure slides overhead
Sunday night/early Monday morning with a cold night anticipated.
Widespread single digits are expected across northern MI with
portions of the interior seeing values drop below zero, especially
where clear skies materialize given a fresh addition to the snow
pack.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Day 3-4 (Monday - Tuesday ): By late Monday/Monday night, next
embedded shortwave expected to be digging across the upper MS
Valley. Attendant sfc low pressure development expected in the
vicinity of this feature with flow becoming south-southwesterly
locally. Increasing confidence in a fairly decent SSW flow lake
effect/enhanced event, perhaps starting as early as Monday
afternoon for portions of the eastern U.P. and into Monday
night/Tuesday morning for northwest lower. Outside of SSW flow
snow belts, most numerous snow showers expected during the day
Tuesday as the mid- level wave slides overhead. Latest ensemble
probabilities hint at 40- 70% chances of at least 4" across
portions of the eastern U.P., Beaver Island, and far northwest
lower during this time frame. Certainly a time frame worth
monitoring over the next couple of days.

Day 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday
night/Tuesday`s system, another more potent wave is expected to dig
across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across
the Upper Midwest and into southern MI. While it appears to be a
quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible -- although
confidence is generally low on where the swath of heaviest snow will
fall.

Beyond Wednesday, the seemingly endless parade of clippers still
doesn`t really have an end in sight with additional waves and
renewed snow chances returning Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

CIGs continue to lift this afternoon while winds generally
weaken, keeping VFR condtions through the evening hours. SCT and
BKN MVFR Cu returns to KMBL and KTVC after 0600Z as -SN tracks
across the region. Breezy NW winds build Sunday afternoon,
delivering -SHSN to all sites besides KAPN and continue beyond
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC