698
FXUS63 KAPX 310645
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
245 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east
winds

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures will linger through much of
next week

- Next rain chances could be near the end of the work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A persisting omega block continues to influence the CONUS today,
with amplified ridging up through central CAN and upper lows over
the western CONUS/northern plains as well as the northeast CONUS.
Current water vapor satellite depicts an upper jet starting to
deepen into a shortwave over the southern part of the Hudson Bay.
Satellite derived PWATs also show around +1" of deep Gulf moisture
advecting on the windward side of the upper ridge, reaching the CAN
front range (many 00z RAOBs over the central and northern plains
confirm this as well as the ongoing convection). Northern MI
continues to be on the leeward side of the upper ridging, which
continues to reinforce dry continental CAN air over the region. This
stark clashing of airmasses can be seen over IL/IA/IN with surface
Td gradients of 20 to 30 degrees across these states.

Today, the center of a surface high pressure resides right over
northern MI. Light winds with afternoon breezes, sunny skies and
warm temperatures will be seen. Lake breeze action is likely near
the coastal areas this afternoon. Elevated fire danger will be seen
this afternoon as RHs dip to as low as the high teens in some
interior spots, and breeze afternoon winds establish. As the
aforementioned upper shortwave over the Hudson Bay deepens, another
surge of dry/cooler air will be on the door step tonight.

East winds will likely remain elevated enough to keep temperatures
from dropping into the 30s as the side-door front moves through
early Monday morning. Breezy east to northeast winds with frequent
gusts up to 20 to 25 mph will bee seen most of Monday. Skies will
likely persist as mostly clear, and dry air near the surface
continues to be reinforced behind the boundary. Temperatures will
cool a couple of degrees for the Lk Huron counties, otherwise
localized warm spots over Lk MI will be seen due to downsloping
across the peninsula. Elevated fire danger will likely be seen again
Monday afternoon, especially with highly unstable conditions up to
8kft or higher.

Starting Tuesday, the blocking patterns begins to shift. The upper
ridge will slide to the east, and land over northern MI. Sunny skies
continue, with temperatures now warming into the 80s in the
afternoon. Dry conditions persist, with locally driven lake breeze
winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, an upper closed low
approaches as the whole block weakens and continues east. Depending
on timing, winds turn southwest either Thursday or late
Thursday/Friday and strengthen ahead of the next system. Wrapped up,
recycled moisture will move over the areas with it and bring rain
and storm chances back to northern MI. Lots of uncertainty in the
timing and intensity/amount of rain remains as multiple days/rounds
of convection over the plains/northern plains has to occur before
this. There is also the inherent uncertainty with how quickly this
block will weaken and move east. Global deterministic and AI
guidance suggests rain chances Friday, however ensembles show a
spread from Friday to Sunday indicating that the upper ridging could
take another day or two to finally move east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR. Dry air remains in place, with limited cloud cover. Light
winds, onshore lake breezes in the afternoon and early evenings.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ