711
FXUS63 KAPX 051935
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwest winds and shower/storm chances Monday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday, with frost/freeze
concerns Wednesday and Thursday morning

- Next chance for precipitation holds off until the
  weekend/early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Surface observations depict southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with
frequent gusts up to 20 to 30 mph over most of the U.P. and northern
lower this afternoon (with the exception of a few sheltered
locations). This, as well as satellite showing fair wx CU over most
of NW Lower, hints at mixing heights rising into the warm sector
this afternoon. Breezy south winds will continue into the night
tonight as a cold front approaches from the NE. As a result
overnight temperatures will remain warmer, especially over northern
lower where they will likely remain in the low 60s.

A line of stratiform rain with embedded showers will exist along the
front, which will be orientated from SW to the NE. A broad upper
trough will set up mid & upper level flow that is parallel to the
boundary. It will reach eastern upper Monday morning, and will
slowly move across northern lower towards Saginaw Bay throughout the
day tomorrow. Embedded thunder will be possible Monday afternoon
over parts of NE lower. Marginal instability exists along and ahead
of the boundary, where AM sunshine is able to heat the surface and
temps aloft are starting to cool. PWATs will start to push an inch
tomorrow late morning due to Pacific and Gulf moisture advection,
although northern lower MI will be on the fringes of the Gulf
moisture surge. Modest low level shear will be seen along the
boundary, with better mid level shear behind the boundary. Colder
air will lag behind the intial push of the boundary, keeping
instability over the lakes rather low until later Monday.

All of these details summarize to most areas seeing clouds and
times of light to moderate rain Monday (starting in the morning
for eastern upper and midday afternoon for northern lower).
Weak embedded storms will be possible over NE lower Monday
afternoon, producing mostly thunder and heavier rainfall - but
also holds the possibility for gusty outflow winds with the
strongest storms. Low chances for waterspouts due to very little
low level wind shear when the colder temperatures arrive (when
we have a little lake instability behind the front). Most
locations should see a trace to a quarter of an inch of rain
tonight through Monday night, with locations under storms seeing
up to a half inch in total.

There is moderate to high confidence that these features will remain
misaligned (non-stacked frontal passage - keeping it weaker, wind
shear and instability not overlapped, and the deepest moisture out
of reach - Pacific moisture running low by the time it reaches MI
and remaining on the fringes of the Gulf moisture). Not to mention
there is dry air near the surface that will need to be overcome.
Models remain fairly consistent with this outcome. The one place of
uncertainty lies in if a storm or two could form over the
central Lk Michigan coastal areas and reach the northern parts
of Saginaw Bay. Confidence in these being impactful storms
remain low, however slight shifts in timing could result in a
storm slightly stronger than anticipated over that southern part
of NE lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Clouds and rain will gradually move out Tuesday morning as surface
high pressure builds in. Another frontal push will be seen late
Tuesday, continuing partly cloudy skies into Tuesday night and
little to no chances for rain. A 1034 mb surface high pressure
will dominate over the Great Lakes region through the end of the
work week. The drier and cooler airmass will result in medium to
high chances for frost/freeze conditions over interior locations
of northern lower and eastern upper. Overnight low temperatures
could dip into the high 20s and low 30s in the coldest spots on
Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Higher confidence in cold
overnight lows for northern lower. Medium confidence in cold
overnight lowers for eastern upper, due to the low chances of
lake aggregate troughing generating some cloud cover. Otherwise,
temperature will start to warm this weekend.

Next notable chances for precipitation arrive this weekend, however
there is low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR this afternoon through tonight with increasingly gusty
south-southwest winds. Strong low-level jet develops this
evening, spreading LLWS across much of the area tonight. Shower
chances and accompanying lower CIGs return Monday morning with
winds eventually veering northwesterly (and diminishing) toward
early Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ025-
     031-095.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG