824
FXUS63 KAPX 150735
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return this weekend, primarily Sunday
  morning into Sunday evening.

- Dry start to next week with rain chances returning by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes today,
eventually pushing east of the region by the back half of the
weekend as troughing progresses overhead. The primary shortwave will
pass just to our north as it crosses Lake Superior/Ontario on Sunday
with a second, convectively-augmented shortwave set to track across
the far southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elongated low pressure
stretching from Hudson Bay down to the mid Mississippi Valley will
be supported by the aforementioned features and trek eastward on
Sunday. Surface high pressure looks to build in behind this to start
next week. Confidence continues to increase in troughing settling
into the region during the middle of next week.

Forecast Details:

The primary forecast concern is the return of rain chances and
perhaps a few storms this weekend. Latest observations and guidance
continue to push back anticipated arrival time for said chances, as
well as decreased confidence in more widespread rain chances --
which has been discussed in previous forecast cycles. Aforementioned
split support aloft contributes to this, and is expected to support
better rain/storm chances to our north and south both today and
Sunday. While cloud cover will begin to increase across the area
today, dry weather is anticipated across northern Michigan into this
evening. Low chances exist for showers near M-55 and across the
eastern U.P. overnight, but our best rain chances will come on
Sunday. While coverage appears it will be less than once thought for
this weekend, scattered showers and a few storms are still expected
later Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Brief heavy downpours and
lightning will be the primary concerns, and severe weather is not
expected.

After rain chances come to an end Sunday night, dry weather is
expected to start the week as high pressure builds in. Seasonable
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are also anticipated to continue
through the first half of next week. Our next round of rain chances
will move in by the middle of next week as troughing works into the
region, also bringing some cooler temperatures through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR condtions look to continue through the night with some
chances for patchy fog at some terminals (CIU, PLN, and APN).
West- southwest winds look to remain generally light with
perhaps a few gusts around 15 knots in the afternoon/ evening
Saturday as the next round of shower/ thunderstorm chances
develop west to east through Saturday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...NSC