559
FXUS63 KAPX 141814
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
214 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few showers possible late this afternoon into tonight.

- Periodic shower/storm chances return at times Monday through
  Thursday with building heat/humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level longwave pattern across the
CONUS consists of troughing on both coasts -- over the Pac NW and
Quebec/New England -- with ridging sandwiched in between over the
nation`s midsection. Embedded shortwave trough evident over the mid-
MS and Ohio Valleys with disorganized surface reflection across the
same area. Expansive area of surface high pressure centered to our
northeast across Ontario/Quebec aiding to continue to filter in
drier low-level air on the heels of northeast winds. While this area
of high pressure sags into the western Great Lakes through the
remainder of the weekend, upstream shower activity associated with
subtle PV anomaly and confluence zone aloft may try to squeeze into
parts of the forecast area later this afternoon into tonight.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of high impact weather potential
through the remainder of the day into tonight, but not without some
nuisance shower chances. Limited forcing and low-level northeast
winds helping to feed in drier air out of Canada will inhibit
numerous showers (unlike the case upstream over northern WI/central
U.P. today), but will continue with low end PoPs this afternoon into
tonight for a few showers that may squeeze into the area at times.
Best chances for this are across northwest lower. Rain amounts, if
any, should be negligible.

Otherwise, variable cloud cover anticipated tonight with most
numerous clouds across northwest lower into parts of eastern upper.
Best shot for at least partial clearing is anticipated over
southern/southeast sections of the CWA. Lows generally in the
mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s area-wide.

Heights slowly rise for Sunday with latest trends supporting
precipication-free conditions with eventual partial sunshine area-
wide. High temps expected to be in the 70s area-wide with cooler 60s
at many of the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Pattern Forecast: Ridging expected to continue across the middle of
the country through the early portions of next week. However,
several shortwaves are expected to crest this ridge, setting up the
potential for occasional shower/storm chances amid increasing
heat/humidity. Toward the middle of next week, larger scale flow
gradually becomes more zonal locally in advance of a more potent
wave expected to eject lee of the Rockies and amplify with eastward
extent during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Overall, generally
unsettled conditions expected Monday - Thursday with periods of
scattered showers/storms at times.

Forecast Details: First and foremost, PoPs will litter essentially
the entirety of the long-term forecast period yielding a rather doom-
and-gloom look to the forecast. That said, would expect shower/storm
chances to be mixed in amongst plenty of dry time through the week.

Initial low-end shower/storm chances arrive as early as late Sunday
night into Monday as decaying upstream convection tries to make a
run toward northern Michigan. "Best" chances Monday actually might
come mid-late afternoon into the early evening across northeast
lower along the typical lake breeze convergence axis.

Somewhat better potential exists later Monday night-Tuesday as
another mid-level wave treks across the northern Great Lakes. Think
the highest chances for more numerous shower/storm activity arrive
Wednesday through Wednesday night in conjunction with amplifying
wave and deepening surface reflection approaching from the west.
Lots of uncertainty of course regarding storm coverage and strength
through this time frame, but worth noting SPC`s Day 5 outlook brings
15% severe probabilities to our southern doorstep. Latest trends do
support the best instability/shear overlap remaining to our south,
but worth monitoring trends over the coming days.

High temps Monday-Wednesday favored to be in the mid-70s to low 80s
across much of northern lower -- cooler near the lakeshores and
north of the bridge. Warmest temperatures expected Tuesday with
potential for mid-upper 80s in downsloping areas of northeast lower,
albeit somewhat dependent on a low confidence cloud cover/precip
forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions continue through the entirety of the forecast
period. Cloud cover will persist for KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN
tonight into Sunday morning with a few hours of -SHRA for KPLN.
southern airports KTVC and KMBL will become BKN to SCT this
afternoon along with lake breeze processes steering winds more
northerly before returning to easterly flow overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC