926
FXUS63 KAPX 302001
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
401 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall/flooding Monday morning
  with low chances for 2-4"+ rainfall across portions of
  northern Michigan.

- Slight rain chances continue through the middle of the week
  with dry weather expected heading into the holiday weekend.

- Warming temperatures through the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Upper-level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes up past Hudson
Bay will continue to slide east early this week. Meanwhile, the low-
level jet extending from the southern Great Plains into the Midwest
will intensify later tonight into Monday morning, providing
forcing/warm air advection over a slow-moving warm front/stationary
front draped across the region. A seasonably strong shortwave looks
to progress across south-central Canada and the northern Great Lakes
in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as aforementioned ridging works
east. Expansive, amplified ridging then looks to build across the
center of the continent late this week and into this upcoming
weekend.

Forecast Details:

Primary concern will be the increasing potential for localized heavy
rainfall and flooding -- especially Monday morning. Unfortunately,
lower-than-usual confidence currently exists in the evolution of
showers and storms this evening through Monday. Latest forecast
thoughts are that at least some additional showers and storms will
form this afternoon and evening across the southeast quadrant of our
CWA and eventually move out over Lake Huron. A relative break in
rain chances aside from a few stray showers is anticipated late this
evening/early tonight before the heaviest rain potential moves in
early Monday morning.

Aforementioned low-level jet forcing is currently expected to kick
off showers and storms during this time, but precise location and
track of this activity is still highly uncertain. Based on latest
observations and guidance, the best chance for training showers and
storms through Monday morning will come across the Straits and
northern lower Michigan along and north of M-32. Should heavy
showers/strong storms materialize, an impressively moist environment
will be in place to support torrential rainfall Monday morning --
which is the primary source of concern analyzing latest guidance
despite relatively low confidence in how showers/storms will evolve.
With PWATs of 1.8"+ exceeding the max moving average and potentially
daily max values this evening/Monday morning, any organized
showers/storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates well in
excess of 1" per hour. Should activity train along/north of the
boundary for a few hours, rainfall totals of 2-4" would be possible
by Monday afternoon -- along with low chances for 4"+ if strong
storms track over certain areas. While severe storms appear unlikely
at this time, small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out given
at least some elevated buoyancy combined with strong deep-layer
shear. It is emphasized that high uncertainty still exists with a
wide range of potential forecast solutions for Monday morning,
spanning from little rainfall if showers/storms struggle to form to
the high-end amounts mentioned above. For additional details on
potential impacts, please see the Hydrology Discussion below.

Looking ahead, rain coverage is expected to taper through Monday
evening. Slight chances for additional showers/storms will be in
place into the middle of the week with much of that time and most
locations remaining dry. Temperatures will warm over the next few
days with highs potentially reaching into the mid to upper 80s on
Tuesday. Mostly dry weather is expected by the end of the week and
into the holiday weekend as previously mentioned ridging helps build
high pressure into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

MVFR cloud cover will slowly lift this afternoon followed by
ceilings quickly lowering overnight. MVFR and IFR CIGs are
expected overnight at KAPN and KPLN, and KCIU with periods of
LIFR at KCIU through early Monday morning. -RA and BR will
reduce VSBY`s at times tonight through Monday morning with
temporary embedded -TSRA chances. Winds will turn south to
southwest by Monday morning with cloud cover slowly lifting
towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Building on the previous discussion, widespread rainfall of around
0.25-0.5" has been seen across much of northern lower Michigan since
last night with a swath of around 1" observed in portions of Ogemaw
and Arenac counties. Given little gauge response from recent rain
and decreasing confidence in widespread amounts exceeding 1" in our
southeast quadrant, flooding impacts appear unlikely here through
this evening. Primary focus shifts to the corridor mentioned in the
Forecast Discussion of the Straits and northern lower Michigan along
and north of M-32. It is emphasized here as well that considerable
uncertainty still remains in location and amounts of rainfall with
potential training showers/storms Monday morning. That said -- while
chances are low for any one area to see 2-4"+ of rainfall Monday
morning in a few hour period, the potential is there for a narrow
swath of the area to see training heavy showers/storms. As was well
discussed before, soil saturations exceeding 50 percent and 3 HR
flash flood guidance around 1.5"-2" make portions of Cheboygan,
Presque Isle, and Alpena counties particularly susceptible to
localized flooding impacts given the potential rainfall. Hydrologic
ensemble probabilistic forecasts via HEFS unfortunately miss the
most likely impacted gauges in the Cheboygan River basin, but quick
rises in rivers and flooding will be possible Monday morning --
including in the vicinity of local streams/rivers.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...SJC
HYDROLOGY...DJC