935
FXUS63 KAPX 271716
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms, works south
across the area tonight into Thursday.

- Reinforcing shot of cold air brings additional frost concerns both
Thursday and Friday night.

- Gradual warming trend and dry conditions this Labor Day Weekend
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Sharp shortwave trough dropping steadily south across northern
Ontario and Quebec early this afternoon, with attendant maturing
cold front running well ahead of it...about set to enter northern
Lake Superior. Strong forcing via sharp low/mid level convergence
within respectable pre-frontal moisture plume (precipitable water
values up and over an inch) helping drive the development of
mostly light showers across Lake Superior into upper Michigan
...with some of this activity beginning to impact far northern
lower Michigan as well. Tightening pressure gradient helping
drive increasingly gusty southwest winds, with associated low
level warm air advection helping drive temperatures into the
upper 60s and lower 70s for most south of the big bridge. More
clouds and showers have kept those north of it just a few
degrees cooler.

Front and west/east running moisture axis will continue to work
steadily south across the area tonight into Thursday. Post-frontal
shot of some rather vigorous cold air advection set to arrive
Thursday...setting as up for some rather chilly conditions to end
this work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain/storm evolution tonight and Thursday with secondary focus on
temperature trends.

Details:

Expect rain to continue to organize in both areal coverage and
intensity as it works further south into the area this evening and
overnight. Guidance derived soundings show deep saturation through
the entirety of the troposphere, and when combined with that sharp
forcing/convergence through this moist layer...supports at least some
transient pockets of heavier rain. Combination of that forcing and
some minimal elevated cape also supports some embedded non-severe
thunderstorms as well...with these pockets of more robust convection
only adding to rainfall intensity. Given above...could definitely
see some areas receive up and over a half inch of rain tonight
...with the juxtaposition of best forcing and deepest moisture
suggesting M-32 up to the Straits having the best potential for
these heavier totals.

Cold front and corridor of rain continues south Thursday, with both
looking to exit our area during the afternoon. Likely to see some
breaks in the overcast develop from north to south during the day as
post-frontal dry air advection deepens. Temperatures expected to go
much of nowhere as any solar contribution is offset by strong cold
air advection within somewhat gusty north winds. May even see
temperatures fall a bit during the afternoon, with most areas likely
in the 50s by sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Large area of very slow moving surface high pressure set to dominate
our weather through this Labor Day Weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Sole focus on temperature trends and frost potential both
Thursday night and Friday night.

Details:

Shot of some anamously chilly air (for the season of course) set to
settle directly overhead Thursday night into Friday. Likely to see a
bit of a lake response given simple breadth of the over-water
thermal gradient, although both rapid drying and limited convective
cloud depths suggest any response will be muted. What should be some
rather wet ground and maintenance of some light northerly flow
suggests temperatures might not drop to their full potential
Thursday night, but definitely wouldn`t be surprised to some areas
dip into the upper 30s by sunrise Friday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
see some isolated colder readings overnight Friday with drying
surface conditions during the day Friday and as high pressure
settles directly overhead. At least patchy frost remains a concern,
and will continue to highlight this potential in our hazardous
weather products.

Current trends continue to support a rather fantastic Holiday
Weekend...with dry conditions, plenty of sunshine, and a steadily
modifying low level airmass. Likely looking at widespread highs in
the 70s both Sunday and Monday...with even perhaps a few areas
making run at 80 on Monday. Same story continues for Tuesday as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Clouds and shower chances will increase from NW to SE across
northern Michigan this afternoon into tonight. SHRA will be
possible first at CIU early this afternoon, spreading south and
east into PLN, TVC, and APN this evening into tonight. Some +RA
possible, particularly at PLN, potentially bringing MVFR to IFR
VSBYs. Otherwise, CIGs trend toward MVFR with time, perhaps
briefly attaining IFR status later tonight as a cold front
passes through. Improving CIGs with rain departing through the
morning, as winds turn more N to NW into late Thursday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...HAD