794
FXUS63 KAPX 202358
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
758 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, fall-like temperatures this week with Monday being
  the coolest; patchy frost potential tonight and Monday night.

- Dry weather with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Drier air will continue to push into the area from the north
today as Canadian high pressure gradually builds into the Great
Lakes, with a mix of sun and clouds expected for the remainder
of the day. This will usher in a relatively benign stretch of
weather across northern Michigan, with high pressure largely
keeping the better rain chances west and south of the area
through much of the upcoming week. Northeast will be breezy at
times through this afternoon/evening and again Monday as cooler
air settles south across the Great Lakes, with Monday shaping up
to be the coolest day of the period. Highs Monday will
generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Cooler temperatures
tonight will bring some potential for patchy frost across
interior eastern Upper, especially in areas that see lighter
winds. Another chilly night is expected Monday night, with
temperatures again falling into the 30s across many interior
locations bringing the potential for some patchy frost yet
again... Frost potential for both nights will depend on how much
winds diminish overnight, with the best chances occurring where
winds are able to decouple.

Temperatures will then gradually moderate through the reminder
of the week as the surface high slowly shifts east and weak
return flow allows milder air to work back into Northern
Michigan. Much of the week looks dry, with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures early
before the aformentioned gradual slight warmup into the 60s and
possibly low 70s occurs by late week. Rain chances remain
minimal through the period, with the next more meaningful
opportunity for precipitation potentially arriving next weekend
or early the following next week, though there is still
considerable uncertainty with the timing and evolution of that
potential at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

While some OVC025-OVC035 lingers across southern parts of the area,
VFR conditions are expected at northern Michigan TAF sites through
the issuance period. The combination of mid/high cloud and northeast
winds between 5-10 kts overnight should inhibit FG/BR development
across most areas tonight. Winds gradually become more ENE by Monday
morning with sustained speeds around 10 kts and gusts to 15-20 kts
at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC