542
FXUS63 KAPX 071838
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances and breezy conditions move into northern Michigan
  later Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Mainly dry weather expected during the second half of this
  week, potentially extending into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging encompassing the Midwest and Great Lakes will begin to fold
over far southeast Canada and New England through the first half of
this week, building surface high pressure across these areas as
well. Strong shortwave troughing will then punch across the region
in the early Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ample forcing aloft will
deepen the associated surface cyclone as it treks across southern
Canada, eventually working over Hudson Bay by Wednesday and across
Quebec Thursday. The attendant cold front stretching back southwest
looks to swing across the Great Lakes late Wednesday. Ridging is
then expected to slide overhead late this week, temporarily building
high pressure in through Friday before additional troughing slides
overhead next weekend.

Forecast Details:

Pleasant weather will remain this afternoon and tonight to round out
the holiday weekend. Temperatures may climb a few more degrees into
the upper 70s/low 80s for places underneath mostly sunny skies
before cooling back into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight.

The primary focus of the forecast period will be on the return of
rain chances and breezy conditions Tuesday through the middle of the
week. Rain-free weather will likely continue for most areas through
Tuesday morning before chances increase from the west during the
afternoon. A dry low-level airmass in place ahead of the
aforementioned front may make it difficult for initial light rain to
reach the ground through the afternoon. However, at least some light
rain will be possible across northern Michigan during the
afternoon/evening.

Best chances/coverage of rain is expected late Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning as the profile becomes increasingly saturated as
the front works closer. A few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible during this time, but nearly moist adiabatic profiles
evident in forecast soundings with very little buoyancy extending
past -10C will keep thunderstorm chances low overall. Winds will
also increase Tuesday night into Wednesday out of the southwest
ahead of the front, likely gusting to 25-40 mph through the
afternoon. Winds and rain chances will taper Wednesday evening after
the front swings through.

Cooler temperatures will lie in the wake of this system Thursday
with afternoon temperatures looking to stay in the upper 60s to low
70s. Dry weather is anticipated through the second half of the week
before at least some low-end chances return this upcoming weekend.
That said, current thought is that the weekend appears more dry than
wet, potentially bringing a more substantial stretch of largely rain-
free weather across the area into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Skies remain mostly clear this evening followed by widespread
stratus building and lowering overnight. Patchy BR remains possible
tonight (mainly at KCIU and KPLN), though confidence of VSBYs
dropping below VFR remains low. Approaching -RA and VCTS will
continue to lower ceilings Tuesday afternoon, but will likely not be
observed until after 18z Tuesday. Winds veer south overnight and
build Wednesday afternoon with gusts in the upper teen to low 20s.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...SJC