181
FXUS63 KAPX 150947
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
547 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances return late tonight.

- Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across
  the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are
  expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long
  term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to slide east of the Great Lakes and over New
England today as ridging works overhead. Subsidence provided at the
ridge/trough inflection point will keep building surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes eastward as well. A weak
shortwave lifting across the Midwest later this evening/tonight
looks to provide sufficient forcing aloft to support an area of
relatively low surface pressure that will trek west of Lake
Michigan into Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Shower chances return late tonight -- Quiet weather is in store for
northern Michigan once again today with high pressure centered
overhead, leading to sunny skies through the afternoon. Cloud cover
will begin to spread from west to east across the area this evening
as the aforementioned shortwave and associated precip lifts across
the Midwest. Low confidence exists at this time, but slight chance
PoPs are included in tonight`s forecast as some showers from this
system may work into Michigan overnight and saturate dry profiles
sufficiently for some rain to reach the ground before more better
rain chances arrive after the period. Otherwise, temperatures look
to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s for many areas today with
cooler temperatures in the low 70s anticipated across northeast
lower and the eastern U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Shortwave midlevel troughing over the northeastern CONUS will
continue to move downstream while upstream longwave ridging
continues to builds across the rest of North America. Attention
for the long term period remains next week as aforementioned
ridging will drive high temperatures across the Great Lakes
region well above normal. Midlevel height disturbances riding
along the baroclinic zone will continue chances of showers and
storms at times next week potentially impacting the severity of
heat across the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across
 the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are
 expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long
 term forecast period: A well advertised heat wave is set to
 commence next week at the start of the long term and continue
 through the entirety of the forecast period. Southwest flow
 will advect a hot humid air mass from the Gulf and build
 temperatures into the mid/upper 80s next week, with the warmest
 days expected to be Monday and Tuesday (with highs potentially
 reaching well into the 90s). Convection driven by lingering
 atmospheric moisture and some height disturbances along the
 aformentioned ridge is expected to develop from time to time
 this week. The baroclinic zone is expected to remain well to
 the northwest of the CWA, but convection can still fire off
 from potential outflow boundaries or lake breezes. Subsequent
 thunderstorms leave some uncertainty with daytime high
 temperatures as low level mixing along with cloud cover could
 inhibit diurnal heating. Nevertheless, the majority of the long
 term will remain well above normal and uncomfortably warm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan through the
vast majority of the issuance period. Any lingering FG/BR at MBL
should diminish shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, mainly light south-
southeast winds around 5-10 mph are expected today with the
potential for lake breeze formation to push inland this afternoon.
Sunny skies will be in place through this afternoon before clouds
begin to spread from west to east across the area this evening and
tonight. Slight chances for showers exist later tonight, but too low
of confidence exists for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC