088
FXUS63 KAPX 130846
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
446 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery, cool, and breezy today; chilly tonight

- Rain/storms return Monday night into Tuesday, along with strong
winds (possible gales)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Generally westerly flow aloft across the CONUS...between a PacNW
upper low and ridging over the SW US (amplifying northward into the
Intermountain West ahead of said upper low)...with 100-120kt upper
jet stretched across the northern tier of the CONUS aiding in some
Pacific moisture transport. Broad upper low swirls over the east-
central portion of Canada, with energy digging through
Manitoba/Saskatchewan and swirling across Ontario. Shortwave
troughing even digs as far south as the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley,
picking up cutoff energy over KY. Deepest moisture (pwats 1.5in or
greater) over the central Plains into the Lower MS Valley where some
convection is ongoing; otherwise, the rest of the deep moisture is
being swept eastward ahead of a cold front stretching from OK to
Saginaw Bay to northern Quebec. 1022mb surface high oozing into the
Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Great Lakes as a tight
thermal gradient slips in...850mb temps falling from the teens over
southern MI to 4C near the northern coast of Lake Superior, denoted
by a second cold front draped across Ontario at 3z; 0C and colder
airmass to our north over northern Manitoba and Ontario, though not
sure that current trajectories support this kind of cold for us.

Lobe of PV swings across the Upper Great Lakes today, with some
showers, potentially lake effect/enhanced on WNW to NW flow, fading
with time going into tonight as energy moves past and winds begin to
diminish, though overlake instability will remain as ridging builds
in quickly overnight tonight, resulting in a chilly night. The PacNW
upper low tracks eastward across the northern Plains tonight into
Monday, resulting in an increase in moisture transport through the
Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday...and potential for heavy
rainfall...as a boundary drapes into the area and stalls out to our
south somewhere in the OH Valley. This could become problematic for
the middle and latter portion of the week...as energy again tries to
cut off across the PacNW/Intermountain West while the more
progressive northern stream drags some energy across southern
Canada, and perhaps the Upper Great Lakes, sometime in the Wednesday
night-Thursday timeframe. Quite a bit of uncertainty beyond this for
next weekend...but there are signals for the second bit of troughing
in the PacNW to eject eastward, which could result in continued
active weather across the eastern half of the country.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Lows tonight...With the cold air mass coming in today, and most of
the area stuck in the 60s for highs...still have concerns some of
the typical cold spots in the interior could drop down into the mid
30s tonight as high pressure builds in...given incoming air mass is
dry, perhaps even a smidgen drier than recent cooler air masses.
Potential sticky wicket is lingering overlake instability and some
potential for a smidgen of low-level moisture to hang on...which
could be in the form of some cloud cover that could slow radiational
cooling, though not sure how extensive this idea will be. We may
also be a bit slower to settle down compared to points west, where
the surface high will move in quicker, which could also slow
radiational cooling. Have trended lows a little cooler for tonight
especially across the interior higher terrain, down into the upper
30s there...where a 25 degree temperature swing would take lows
tonight down into the mid thirties.

Heavy rain potential Monday night into Tuesday...Not a ton of change
in the overall setup. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the next
system, combined with an increase in absolute moisture, will result
in anomalous moisture transport into the Upper Midwest.
Attm...signals point toward the most anomalous (beyond climo)
moisture transport occurring to our west over WI Monday into Monday
night, where there is a greater shot at weaker stability that could
produce a better bang for our QPF buck; this area would also be more
favored for heavy rain in a Maddox synoptic type setup, to which
Monday night is somewhat similar. Expect we will see stronger
frontogenetic responses that will enhance QPF in localized
swaths...some of which are currently progged to influence the EUP
and Tip of the Mitt region late Monday night...and will watch for a
potential maximum in QPF up here, as well as elsewhere along the
front (including the Saginaw Bay region in the afternoon/evening).
Abundant moisture present in this setup is not favorable for typical
instability parameters, but think we could still see some convective
elements develop along a potential dry slot sweeping through
Tuesday. Things appear to become more progressive here late Monday
night into Tuesday as the PV max tracks relatively quickly across
central Ontario, allowing the cold front to drape down into the
region with time going into Tuesday night, and keep the better
moisture and forcing from remaining colocated in our region Tuesday
(compared to points upstream). That is...not impossible the heaviest
rain ends up splitting around us (as usual)...with probabilistic
guidance trending a little lower on potential for 1-in in 24hrs here
compared to the last couple nights...suggesting heavy rain is not as
much of a certainty as it once seemed...though parts of the area
should still get some decent rainfall.

Gales possible Monday night into Tuesday...850mb winds will be
climatologically anomalous with this system...around 3-4 standard
deviations above the mean, lending concerns for strong winds to mix
down to the surface. Model guidance suggests potential for a 40+kt
low-level jet overhead Monday night into Tuesday morning, though it
may be waning a bit in intensity as it arrives in our part of the
Midwest, compared to points upstream. Primary question is how much
of these winds will mix down, given that this is a warm advection
setup. The answer is not crystal clear, as the strong inversion
aloft (around 900-800mb) and nocturnal influences could dissuade
stronger winds from mixing down; however, do wonder if the lakes
will still be warm enough to allow for some downward momentum
transport...just not sure if it will be enough to tap the strongest
winds or not. Current sounding-derived probs suggest a 30-40 percent
(medium confidence) chance of wind gusts in excess of 34kts,
particularly at sites near Lake MI (and perhaps up toward DeTour and
Drummond Island) where there is better fetch off the effectively
frictionless lake surface on S to SW flow...though S/SE flow
initially could keep gale potential just to our west on Lake MI
Monday night, more over the open waters and areas west of Seul Choix
Point. The surface pressure gradient itself will also be quite
strong between the incoming surface low over southern Canada and
exiting high pressure over New England...supportive of sustained
winds upwards of 10-20kts across the region Monday night into the
first half of Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Fog has developed in nw lower MI, including MBL. Have them
staying IFR or worse thru dawn. Some concerns that at least TVC
will also see fog overnight. Nw winds get a bit gusty again by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     late tonight for MIZ018.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MIZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LMZ323-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPB/FEF
AVIATION...JZ