574
FXUS63 KAPX 150346
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy rain
possible.

- Rain/storm chances return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Broad ridge axis over the central/northern Plains this morning, with
troughing over the Western continent...and bits of energy amid
broader troughing over eastern Canada, including a PV max over W.
Ontario and a bit sliding by to our northeast through S. Ontario,
resulting in upper confluence over the Great Lakes into the
Northeast US. High pressure over central Canada beginning to ooze
into the Upper Great Lakes, tapping into a cooler/drier continental
airmass with prevailing/light northerly flow in the low-levels here
in northern Michigan. (850mb temps in the 4-5C range to our
northeast, with surface temps/dewpoints in the 45-55 range as of
12z.) Meanwhile...to our south...pesky baroclinic zone remains stuck
from the Central Plains into the OH Valley...with deep moisture
(pwats of 2in or more and dewpoints in the 70s) pooling along the
boundary...and nocturnal LLJ veering across the Plains to provide a
source of forcing/instability. Have noted the westernmost convective
complex shift from the Central Plains last night into IA early this
AM and fading with time as the LLJ veers and the 700mb cap retreats
southward with time...with additional convective complexes over
IL/IN and WV as of 12-13z.

Perturbation tracking through central Canada will result in
increased return flow across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest...resulting in an area of pressure falls and precipitation
to our northwest Saturday...while the BCZ to our southwest will
remain in place and may also try to shift northward with time going
into Saturday, with its own pressure falls and precipitation
developing to our southwest...as moisture tries to sneak into the
Upper Great Lakes, particularly Saturday night into Sunday, when our
next best shot at rain will take place as that PV maxima treks
across the region. This should exit stage right by Monday
morning...with subtle ridging trying to build in for the day ahead
of the next lobe of upper level energy tracking down out of central
Canada. Currently, this appears to drag a boundary into the area for
the midweek timeframe, which will be the next item of interest going
forward. Beyond this...there are some signals for broad troughing to
attempt to settle into the Upper Midwest/eastern continent, and
ridging to try to build out west again.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storm chances Saturday into Sunday... Dry low-level airmass
currently funneling into the region from the north should slow top-
down saturation and precip chances late tonight into at least part
of Saturday, with the best shot at activity across SW portions of
our area (toward MBL) during the day. It wouldn`t be entirely
surprising if we were able to hold off a great deal, if not all, the
rain chances till after dark Saturday, with the best shot at rain
early Sunday morning as PV max and attendant surface low pass by to
our north. Deep moisture does cross the area Sunday (pwats 1.5in or
greater), but we may end up with relatively weak forcing
overall...and do have to wonder if the better rain chances will
focus themselves yet again over the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley (perhaps
even as far north as southern MI?) where there is more potential for
instability along the edge of the cap, which could rob us of some
moisture...and perhaps set up potential for precipitation areas to
split around parts of northern MI again. However, if that area does
develop and does track into our area, which is not out of the
question, would expect potential for significant rainfall totals
over that portion of the area, especially as it would be more likely
to train, and we expect to have anomalously high precipitable water
values in the region (97-99th percentile vs climo). Greatest shot of
this scenario would likely be near and south of M-55 (but most
likely, well south). Otherwise...will look for some embedded thunder
early Sunday morning, especially ahead of the cold front where there
is a better shot at convective instability...and instability in
general. Not impossible there could be some marginal deep-layer
shear to work with during this timeframe that could try to organize
any showers/storms, but we will see.

Rain/storm chances look to return next week... Not impossible the
weekend system allows a boundary to stall out over the Great Lakes
region early next week, which should become important going into
Tuesday as the next bit of energy slips down from Canada to
reinforce that idea...perhaps with a bit of warm advection ahead of
it? Or even some sort of MCS activity in the region with the ridge
axis to our west. Attm, signals point toward a surface boundary
draped across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by midweek, with some of
the more aggressive guidance suggesting a surface low could spin up
over the area on the boundary...though more likely, to our
east/northeast based on current model trends. Some deeper moisture
accompanies this boundary, and would expect some synoptic forcing
with this, suggesting that rain and storms could threaten the area.
Given the trends in this weekend`s forecast over the last few days
or so, not a lot of confidence in this idea standing totally firm
for us...but certainly something to keep an eye on as we go forward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR condtions look to continue through the night with some
chances for patchy fog at some terminals (CIU, PLN, and APN).
West- southwest winds look to remain generally light with
perhaps a few gusts around 15 knots in the afternoon/ evening
Saturday as the next round of shower/ thunderstorm chances
develop west to east through Saturday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...NSC